Marek Migalski: Karol Nawrocki is the favorite in the elections. Rafał Trzaskowski has to take risks

Although Rafał Trzaskowski came first in the first round of the presidential election, he is not a favorite in the second round. Realizing this simple truth is the first condition for his effective fight for Belweder.

The second is a major change in the group making the final choice. If exactly the same voters who voted last Sunday were to decide on June 1, the deputy leader of PO would have no chance, because opponents of the current government clearly predominated among them. If we add up the support for Sławomir Mentzen, Grzegorz Braun, Krzysztof Stanowski and Marek Jakubiak, it will turn out to be more than twice as high as the combined support for Szymon Hołownia, Magdalena Biejat and Joanna Senyszyn. And although this type of simple addition is not entirely correct, a simple conclusion follows from it - the overwhelming majority of those voters who voted on May 18 and whose candidates were eliminated would support Karol Nawrocki in the second round.

The situation is slightly different with Adrian Zandberg's electorate, because while he himself remains in opposition to the government and will probably not vote in the second round, the majority of his voters (though probably not activists) will ultimately support Trzaskowski.

How to encourage voters of the ruling camp and how to discourage voters of Mentzen and Braun?

The above observations give rise to the third condition for Trzaskowski's potential victory – he must ensure that the demos that will appear at the polls on June 1 will be significantly different from the one that showed up there last Sunday.

He can do this in two ways – first, by encouraging new voters to make a civic effort and by discouraging some of Mentzen and Braun's voters (because it's mainly about them). Regarding the first operation – the task of the deputy leader of PO is to ensure that all supporters of the current government, including those who were absent on May 18, dutifully show up at the polling stations in ten days. He can use program messages that are pleasing to them, intimidating the opponent, and personal charm. It is the task of the staff to apply appropriate means to this task. I can only suggest, without being asked by anyone – a typical negative campaign will be the most effective.

Fortunately for Trzaskowski, exactly the same campaign will be the easiest to achieve the second goal – to discourage some of the supporters of Mentzen, Braun, Stanowski, Jakubiak from taking part in the act of voting. Some part of the electorate of the former will vote for the deputy leader of PO on its own, but it will be a minority. It will be hard for him to convince the rest, so he is left with the fight to discourage them from taking part in the elections.

As I said – in both cases (driving new supporters and discouraging current opponents) negative messages will be the most effective. Only they can bring the expected effect in such a short time (it is precisely to negative campaigns that our brain is particularly sensitive, which results from the adaptive nature of fear in the history of our genus and species). Therefore, if Trzaskowski's team has really dirty materials on Nawrocki, now is the time to launch them. The role that the "street criterion" can play, which will take place next Sunday, is also significant. If everything goes well, Trzaskowski's last chance for the presidency will disappear. However brutal and cynical it may sound, it is in his interest that scandalous scenes occur during both demonstrations, because only then will it be possible to accuse PiS of them and present the victory of "Tusk's deputy" as a remedy for "civil war".

The troublesome positive messages of the election campaign

As for positive messages, Trzaskowski's team is in a real mess - the voters who were not at the polls last Sunday (especially young women) expect completely different things from those who supported right-wing candidates (especially young men). By promising to deal with issues important to the former (for example, abortion or same-sex marriage), he exposes himself to the wrath of the latter. But that's the charm of presidential elections, where the goal is to gain the support of at least half of society.

Currently, Nawrocki is the favorite, which is why Trzaskowski has to take risks. If he is satisfied with the insurance campaign he has been running so far, it will end for him like it did five years ago. It is time for more offensive actions on his part. Those who do not take risks, do not drink champagne. Especially in the Presidential Palace.