Poll: KO is catching up with PiS, and Szymon Hołownia's party is getting further and further away from the Sejm

The poll, conducted last week, gives Law and Justice 29.2 percent support, which means an increase of 0.9 percentage points compared to the survey conducted at the end of June.

The Civic Coalition improved its result in July, with 28.2% of respondents saying they would support it in the Sejm elections. This is a 2.6% increase compared to two weeks earlier.

Confederation also achieved a double-digit result, with 12.5% of respondents saying they would vote for it. At the same time, the party saw the largest drop in support. At the end of June, 15% of respondents indicated they would vote for Confederation.

The Left would also get into the Sejm, with 6.8% of people voting (an increase in support by 0.2 percentage points).

The remaining parties failed to meet the required threshold. Grzegorz Braun's Konfederacja Korony Polskiej (Confederation of the Polish Crown) improved its result by 0.3 percentage points, reaching 4.2% support in July. Support for the Polish People's Party (PSL) fell by 0.6 percentage points, currently at 3.5%. Three percent of respondents would vote for the Razem Party – a 2 percentage point drop from June. Szymon Hołownia's Polska 2050 (Poland 2050) saw another drop in support. The party received 2.8% of the vote in the poll (a 1.6 percentage point drop).

9.8% of people said they did not know who they would vote for (an increase of 2.7 percentage points)

Sejm elections. PiS or Civic Coalition, who could form the new government?

Based on the poll results, the distribution of seats in the Sejm was calculated. Law and Justice would have 186 seats in the Sejm, and the Civic Coalition 178. The Confederation would receive 68 seats, and the Left 28.

If the Confederation were to form a coalition with either PiS or Civic Coalition, it would gain a majority in parliament. The PiS-Confederation coalition would have 254 seats, and the Civic Coalition-Confederation 246. The parties currently forming the ruling coalition—the Civic Coalition and the Left—would not have a majority after the elections. The forecast indicates that together they would have 206 votes.

The survey was conducted on July 11-13 on a sample of 1,000 Poles (CATI and CAWI methods).

Government reshuffle. Will the government's ratings improve?

The latest IBRiS survey for "Rzeczpospolita" shows that voters' belief that the current reconstruction, announced for months, will bring a political breakthrough is at least moderate.

"This is a realistic scenario, although everything will depend on the situation in 2026, next summer, or fall," a government official tells us when we ask whether Donald Tusk will actually step down as prime minister in a few or a dozen months and focus on managing the party and preparing for the next elections. And this timeframe—a maximum of one year—is emerging from conversations with Rzeczpospolita sources.