'Cracks' Among Iran's Elites: There's a Backup Plan in Case of Khamenei's Death

According to the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), internal "cracks" have appeared in the Iranian political elites, caused by the conflict with the US and Israel.

ISW, citing Iranian opposition sources, noted in its latest report that Iranian moderate former president Hassan Rouhani held talks with high-ranking clerics. The politician wanted the hierarchy to put pressure on Iran's supreme spiritual and political leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to agree to key US and Israeli demands, including the state's abandonment of uranium enrichment.

Rouhani has described the meetings as an attempt to “save” the Islamic Republic. It is unclear how the clerics responded to the former president’s requests, the ISW said. However, media outlets affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have reported in recent days that “several questionable and untrustworthy” figures in the government have tried to persuade the clerics in Qom to seek a compromise with Israel. The outlets reported that these individuals “tried, unsuccessfully, to contact Khamenei to advocate for the resumption of negotiations with the United States.”

The ISW also reported that unidentified Iranian officials were said to have developed a contingency plan in the event of Khamenei's death or sidelining.

Under the plan, Khamenei would be replaced by a “leadership committee” that would negotiate a ceasefire with the United States and Israel. Rouhani was mentioned as someone tipped to play a “key role” in that body.

Some military officials involved in the plan have established contacts with Gulf Arab states to seek support for political change in Iran , a US think tank said.

Reuters reported on Monday, citing sources involved in the discussions, that efforts were underway to appoint a successor to Khamenei. The efforts, the ISW said, suggest that senior officials are very concerned about the instability of the regime and are trying to ensure its survival if Khamenei is killed or removed. (PAP)

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