GDP growth slows to 2.9 percent. PKO BP economist: This is the result of the weakness of the manufacturing sector

GDP growth in the first quarter of this year amounted to 2.9 percent year-on-year, which means a slight slowdown compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, PKO BP bank economist Kamil Pastor told PAP.

On Thursday, the Central Statistical Office will publish a flash estimate of economic growth in the first quarter of 2025.

"We estimate that GDP growth in Q1 2025 amounted to 2.9% y/y, which would mean a slight slowdown compared to Q4 2024 (3.4% y/y)," Kamil Pastor told PAP.

He emphasized that in the quick estimate, the Central Statistical Office will publish only the dynamics of economic growth. However, broader data on GDP growth in the first quarter will be presented on June 2.

"The temporary slowdown in GDP growth that we expected is due to the weakness of the manufacturing sector - in Q1 2025, industry remained stagnant, and construction, in which we had greater hopes, grew only slightly. We expect that on the demand side, consumption remained the main growth driver (with a solid contribution from public consumption). Investments most likely continued to decline in annual terms, although at a much slower pace than in H2 2024," said the PKO BP economist.

In his opinion, a revival of economic activity can be expected in the coming quarters.

"Investments (driven mainly by increased spending of KPO funds) will join consumption as the engine of growth, with annual dynamics in the second half of 2025 expected to be double-digit. We estimate that the Polish economy will remain relatively resistant to external turbulences in 2025," the economist said. (PAP)

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