Real estate market with good signs in 2025

According to the much-awaited INE report, the housing price index for the 1st quarter of 2025 grew by 4.8% compared to the previous quarter, one of the most significant increases seen in the last two years.

Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, the first quarter of 2025 grew by around 16.3% compared to 2024, also representing one of the largest increases seen in year-on-year terms. It should be noted that compared to the average year-on-year growth seen in the last two years, we doubled that value in this quarter.

This renews the positive outlook for real estate transactions and their overall value. In the first quarter, 41,358 transactions were carried out, corresponding to an overall value of 9.6 billion euros; these figures represent a decrease in the total number of transactions of around -8.5%, although the market grew by around 5% in terms of its overall value, thus generally remaining in line with previous quarters.

In terms of the average transaction price, we also saw growth to a value of 233 thousand euros, representing a positive evolution of 3.3% compared to the previous quarter, with price evolution remaining in line with the quarterly growth seen in the last two years.

In terms of the price component between new and used homes, the same dynamics were maintained in this quarter, with a more intense growth in the used segment compared to the new one, with positive variations of 5.3% and 3.7%, demonstrating that house prices appreciate more than the prices of new ones. In this quarter, the market sold around 80% of used homes and 20% of new homes, also in line with previous quarters.

Overall, we have seen a clear maintenance of the critical variables of the real estate market, with clear signs of sustained growth in terms of both transactions and their overall value. The evolution of prices, which has been moderate and in line with previous quarters, has contributed greatly to the sustainability of this growth.

It is anticipated that the market in 2025 could reach a level of transactions of around 180 thousand, which should correspond to a global value of around 36 billion euros.

Once again, and along with others, the real estate sector in Portugal presents itself as a robust, sustainable and non-speculative sector, and should be increasingly considered as a strategic sector for the country's development and for the sustainability of families.

Businessman and manager, graduated from Católica Business School, Postgraduate degree from Porto Business School