The darkest harvest ever: what will happen to the price of Portuguese wine?

Portugal—like all wine-producing countries—wants to sell more. It wants to sell at a higher price. This is a legitimate ambition, one that has been worked hard toward at every stage of the chain: in viticulture, oenology, marketing , and in national and international efforts.

This work has been carried out by producers, both individually and collectively, through associations and institutions—and it has borne fruit. Not at the pace many desire or need, but the results are there: international recognition for Portuguese wines, a presence in more markets, growing exports, a dynamic domestic market, numerous events, extensive communication about wine, and per capita consumption that we lead.

But there's still much to be done. The journey has been full of bumps, advances, and setbacks—but with good progress.

However, the sector is going through a difficult and complex time, both nationally and especially internationally. The socioeconomic context is challenging, with less money available for leisure and, consequently, for alcoholic beverages. Health concerns are growing, and there is strong pressure from the WHO and various governments regarding the consumption of these beverages—with wine often cited as an example.

Political and institutional challenges also arise, as well as labor shortages, changes in consumption and social habits, climate change, regulatory obstacles, and an increasingly competitive market, with few barriers to the creation of new brands and marketing.

All of this creates uncertainty, consumer and trade withdrawal. It generates fear and disinvestment—and contributes to market collapse.

Everything we experience today reminds me of an old story — the story of the hot dog vendor.

There was a man who sold hot dogs by the roadside. He didn't listen to the radio, read the newspaper, or watch television. He cared only about his business. He used the best bread, the best sausage, and made a point of treating his customers well. He was also good at promoting: he put up signs along the road, shouted enthusiastically when someone passed by—"Look at the special hot dog!"—and had a great clientele.

The business grew. Customers returned, bringing more people, and the man ended up opening a larger store. Since business was doing well, he sent his son to study at one of the best universities in the country. When his son returned, already graduated, he said to him: "Dad, the situation is critical. The country is on the brink of bankruptcy. How come you haven't realized that yet?"

The father thought, "My son studied, he knows more than I do. He must be right." Fearing the crisis, he began cutting costs. He sought out cheaper bread and used lower-quality sausages. He stopped making signs. He stopped shouting. He abandoned everything that made the business successful.

Sales dropped. The business went bankrupt. And the father, very sad, said to his son:

— You were right, son. We are truly in the worst moment ever.

What I want to ask is: what will be the impact of so much negative communication on the national and international market?

Producers, associations and institutions themselves are issuing pessimistic messages to the market: excess stocks , "the darkest harvest ever", a difficult scenario, a lack of sales...

What message does this send to the market? Isn't the industry itself amplifying everything negative—including health-related challenges—and instilling doubt in more and more people about whether or not they should drink wine? And how they should consume it?

Is this a legitimate debate? Definitely. But will it be beneficial to the sector?

Many people outside the wine world tell me, "It looks like things are bad..." Is that a good thing? Is anyone motivated to consume a product that has gone from seeming fantastic and glamorous to becoming a difficult sell?

And what about the trade ? Will it pay more? An importer who hears that there's excess stock , that the harvest will be dramatic, that the market is in crisis—will he value Portuguese wine more? Or will he use this as an argument to pay less?

I completely understand that pressure must be applied to the government. But aren't the political views of some industry players overriding their commercial ones?

In football and other team sports, it's said that problems are resolved in the locker room. Yes, nowadays everything ends up coming out. But perhaps the industry needs to rethink how it communicates. Perhaps it needs to convey a stronger, more confident, more positive message.

Otherwise, you risk being like the hot dog vendor... who ended up proving the crisis right.