With an eye on 2026, PSD strengthens alliance with Tarcísio amid threat to abandon Lula

Led nationally by Gilberto Kassab, the PSD has expanded its efforts to strengthen its alliance with the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). This strategy is taking place amid the waning popularity of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and the discontent of the party with the PT government.

Kassab is the current government secretary of São Paulo and one of the main enthusiasts of Tarcísio's candidacy for the Presidency in 2026. The PSD leader has even been getting closer to Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the strategy of trying to build a candidacy in the right-wing field to face Lula's reelection.

The former president is ineligible until 2030 by decision of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and his allies are pushing for a definition of support by the end of this year in order to make another name from the right viable. So far, Tarcísio has put himself forward as a candidate for reelection to the São Paulo government and has argued that he will only change his plans if he has Bolsonaro's approval.

Alongside Tarcísio last week, Bolsonaro said he hopes to "be on the political board" in next year's elections. Despite this, the former president took the opportunity to praise the governor of São Paulo.

"He [Tarcísio] got a taste of politics and he's not leaving it anymore. He has a great future ahead of him, he's a great manager. He's already learned 95% of the things in politics. Tarcísio, I'm going to give you some lessons, if you haven't already learned everything from Kassab," said the former president.

In this strategy, Kassab has acted as the main articulator in trying to unlock Bolsonaro's support for Tarcísio's name. The expectation among PSD leaders is that Kassab's party will formally be in the coalition that is being put together by the PL for 2026.

"I want to greet Kassab here, president of the largest party in the country, after the PL. It's not just the PL, no. The PSD has good people, the PR [Republicans], so many people", said Bolsonaro during an event in São Paulo.

PSD features Tarcísio's face in party propaganda

While working to secure Bolsonaro's support for Tarcísio in 2026, Kassab used the PSD's insertions in party propaganda on television to reinforce the alliance with the governor of São Paulo. Of the seven pieces, which will air until June 27, five directly mention the head of the state executive.

“Together, Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and the PSD are giving a new boost to the development of São Paulo. There are hundreds of actions, works and programs happening right now, preparing a future of even greater development,” says one of the commercials.

The videos show Tarcísio at construction sites, inaugurations and political events. “The government of São Paulo and the PSD, a partnership that takes São Paulo forward,” says the narrator at the end of some of the videos.

Recently, Kassab stressed that his party will support Tarcísio in a possible presidential race, and that the center-right “will not put forward any other name” if the governor of São Paulo officially enters the race. So far, the PSD has two pre-candidates launched by governors Ratinho Júnior, of Paraná, and Eduardo Leite, of Rio Grande do Sul.

"The party is on a good path: everyone knows that Governor Tarcísio is a candidate for reelection, and if he doesn't run [and runs for the presidency], he will have the support of the PSD. And the PSD has had Governor Ratinho in pre-campaign mode for a long time. More recently, Governor Eduardo Leite also became a pre-candidate," said Kassab during an event in São Paulo.

In addition to the PSD's support for Tarcísio's candidacy for president, Kassab has already flirted with running for governor of São Paulo himself as the current governor's successor. This move, however, would also depend on an agreement with former president Jair Bolsonaro's party in the state.

Kassab's party has a troubled relationship with the Lula government

While the PSD leadership is strengthening its alliance with Tarcísio de Freitas, Kassab's party is experiencing a strained relationship with the Lula government. The party, which has 45 deputies and 14 senators, has at least three ministries under the PT administration.

The main discontent is among the deputies, who demanded more space in the Esplanada dos Ministérios, but the demand was not met by the Planalto. The Chamber's bench was responsible for the nomination of André de Paula for the Ministry of Fisheries, a position considered to have low capillarity by the parliamentarians.

The main message against the government was given this Monday (16), when the party decided to vote for urgency in the project that calls for the overturn of Lula's decree on the increase of the Tax on Financial Transactions (IOF). In total, 40 deputies voted for approval and only 5 maintained support for the government .

"We held a meeting with the PSD bench, in which we discussed the importance of debating this PDL [Legislative Decree Project]. In our party's statutes, we have a position against any tax increase. The bench made its assessment, the result of a broad debate. We decided, by almost unanimous vote, to vote yes to the urgency of this PDL", announced the leader of the PSD in the Chamber, Antônio Brito (BA), during the vote in the plenary.

Behind the scenes, deputies admit that the situation within the party is one of great dissatisfaction with the government. When asked about the possibility of the PSD supporting Tarcísio de Freitas in 2026, these parliamentarians believe that the scenario for the governor could be much more favorable given Lula's falling popularity.

A Datafolha survey, released on the 12th, showed that 40% of voters disapprove of the PT government. This is the highest rejection rate for Lula since the beginning of his third term. The institute interviewed 2,004 people aged 16 or older in 136 Brazilian cities between the 10th and 11th of June. The margin of error is two percentage points, either way.