Pessimism about the economy is growing in the coming months, says Quaest

The new round of the Quaest survey released this Wednesday (16) shows an increase in pessimism about the Brazilian economy in the coming months. As a result, the prospect of worsening accounts exceeded the improvement for the first time since 2023 and occurs in the wake of the 50% tax imposed by the President of the United States , Donald Trump, on Brazilian products.

Although the government's image has improved with the tariff hike , due to the intense campaign for sovereignty and the financial impacts on the Brazilian productive sector, the outlook for ordinary citizens is not good. For the next 12 months, the country's economy is expected to worsen:

• Worse: 43%, compared to 30% in May (last survey);
• Improve: 35%, compared to 45%;
• Don't know/didn't answer: 3%, compared to 4%.

Quaest interviewed 2,004 people between July 10th and 14th in 120 Brazilian municipalities. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level.

This pessimism is reflected in issues such as purchasing power, employment, supermarkets, gasoline, and electricity and water bills compared to a year ago:

• Purchasing power: 80% lower today, 11% higher and 3% the same;
• Electricity and water bills: 62% say they have gone up, 24% have stayed the same and 11% have gone down;
• Food in supermarkets: 76% say prices have gone up, 14% have stayed the same and 8% have gone down;
• Job: 56% harder to get nowadays, 34% easier and 5% the same;
• Gasoline: 56% say it went up, 23% stayed the same and 6% went down.

Overall, 46% of respondents say the Brazilian economy has worsened in the last 12 months—a variation within the margin of error compared to the previous survey in May, when this perception was 48%. Thirty percent say there has been no change, and 21% say it has improved.

For 79% of those interviewed by Quaest, the tariff increase imposed by Trump will harm the lives of Brazilians, while only 17% are more optimistic and do not believe the measure will have an impact.

This perception that Trump's taxation will affect the lives of Brazilians is unanimous across all political positions of those interviewed, whether Lula voters (77%) or Bolsonaro voters (82%) or those more to the center (82%).

Despite this, 43% of respondents believe that Lula works harder to meet the needs of those who voted for him than to meet the needs of all Brazilians (40%). Although the variation was within the margin of error, the survey shows a reversal of scenarios, in which the perception of a government for all was greater until December 2024.

In the previous survey, from May, the perception that Lula works more for his voters surpassed that of everyone (42% to 41%) and has gradually increased:

Overall, 40% of respondents considered Lula's administration negative, 28% positive, and 28% average. Another 4% did not know or chose not to answer.