Seguro's Firing Leaves Socialists Looking to the Inevitable
Time marches on, it takes a while for anyone else to advance on the center-left, and meanwhile, António José Seguro is gaining ground in the presidential polls. This scenario gives a boost to the former Socialist leader's candidacy, which initially left the PS very hesitant and is now beginning to emerge internally as an inevitability .
The left-wing candidate pool currently consists of socialist António José Seguro and communist António Filipe. The other expected candidate on the left, Sampaio da Nóvoa , has not yet given a final response to those still eager to run again, which is beginning to drive this group, where he already has significant support, to despair. A final decision is expected soon, especially since "the longer it takes to position oneself, the worse it gets, " says one of the people closely following the decision-making process. "The window of opportunity is short," notes a socialist awaiting that decision.
And the Intercampus poll on the presidential election, published by Correio da Manhã and Jornal de Negócios, showed just that. The presidential candidate who has so far been the sole center-left candidate, António José Seguro, surged in voting intentions in the first study conducted after his candidacy was officialized—the fieldwork for the poll published in June predated that moment.
In July, the three top-ranked candidates for Belém appeared in a dead heat in this poll, with Henrique Gouveia e Melo dropping six percentage points to 20%, Luís Marques Mendes remaining virtually unchanged from June, at 17%, and Seguro jumping from 11% to 16.5%. And in Aximage's CNN poll, Seguro achieved 14%, putting him five points behind Marques Mendes (in second place).
The Socialist Party's consolidation on the ground, gaining early support, has been evident over time, even though he's a presidential candidate who continues to fail to galvanize the party. "There are a lot of people in the PS who are orphaned ," comments one of the party's leaders, who is not very convinced by Seguro's choice. But at the same time, he admits that, in the end, "everything" may "depend on the polls ." A position that is currently being shared even by those less enthusiastic about the former leader.
The outlook, so far, favors Seguro, whether due to the proliferation of candidates on the right (and the reduced number on the left), or due to Admiral Gouveia e Melo's tendency to occupy the center-right space. "It's the best scenario for António José Seguro," believes the same source who predicts: "People will tend to rally around António José Seguro at their own pace."
"Seguro is filling the empty space ," comments another socialist who sees Socialist support as inevitable. This position is beginning to emerge more clearly publicly from party figures who, in the past, strongly opposed Segurism and were never close to the former leader. This is the case with Duarte Cordeiro , who, just this week on the Now channel, said that "there is beginning to be very little room for any other candidate in the center-left political space." Cordeiro had previously stated that he found it difficult to believe that the PS would not support its former leader in the current climate.
Fernando Medina had also stated in his commentary section on the same channel, shortly after António Vitorino and Augusto Santos Silva left the scene, that "since there is no available member with the political clout and capital within the party and in Portuguese society to put forward a candidacy, an independent candidacy will not meet that challenge." Not only did he dismiss the Sampaio da Nóvoa issue, he also considered the party's support for Seguro to be "the natural path."
This Wednesday, one of the leading figures in Pedronunism, MP Marina Gonçalves, declared her official support for António José Seguro — a move that is being seen by some socialists as the start of a coordinated movement among those closest to former leader Pedro Nuno Santos.
On her Facebook page, the former Housing Minister wrote that "in challenging times, such as the one we are currently experiencing, which require thoughtfulness, objectivity and, above all, the ability to think and act together for a better country, it is important to ensure that, in each election, we have candidates who best represent the values and core principles of the Socialist Party."
On the ground, he sees "a candidacy born from someone who is a PS member and was the party's general secretary" and who claims to represent "the values of the PS and, above all, guarantees high civic performance in a country facing increasingly urgent and inevitable challenges." The post concludes clearly: "António José Seguro can count on my support!"
Before her, Pedro Vaz , a former member of Pedro Nuno's board of directors who is now Alexandra Leitão's campaign director in Lisbon, had told Antena 1 that "I would see it very naturally if the PS ended up supporting António José Seguro. Obviously, Sampaio da Nóvoa was already a candidate and had the support of many PS leaders and activists, but I believe that, institutionally, the PS will have things resolved with the support of António José Seguro."
The shift toward Seguro is beginning to emerge more clearly within the Socialist Party, after António Vitorino concluded his long deliberation with the decision not to run for Belém. The former Socialist minister even attempted to reach agreements with Seguro so that only the best-positioned Socialist would remain in the race—to avoid internal divisions and voter turnout—but these were rejected. Later, Augusto Santos Silva also decided not to move forward, while simultaneously arguing for an independent candidate who would unite the left. The pressure shifted to Sampaio da Nóvoa.
Vitorino attempted to compromise with Seguro for a single presidential candidacy in the center-left
The former rector had, until this Wednesday, remained undecided about his presidential taboo . A week ago, he was questioned in various ways by journalists after an international conference on Education at Lusófona University, but he refused to close the deal. His only concern was to shrug off any responsibility for adding fuel to the fire in Belém: "I didn't make any statement about it, I didn't harbor any expectations." It's true that the left (the Left Bloc, the Free Party, and some Socialist Party) continues to wait for the former rector of the University of Lisbon to be clear about his willingness to run, although with increasingly less hope given the "hesitations" that are being noted.
A socialist aware of these movements notes that Nóvoa "had 23% and many people from the left and center-left with him. Now he would represent the political space of Livre, BE, and marginally the PS. I don't know if a result and representation much lower than what he had" in 2016 is comfortable . But among the socialists, there are also those who are downplaying this week's poll, either because of its small population or the distance from the January elections. "Even with the admiral sinking sharply , Seguro isn't rising that much," notes one of these figures in an interview with Observador.
A month ago, embroiled in yet another potential presidential split within the party, José Luís Carneiro raised the issue of local elections beyond the local elections, clearly hoping that the issue of potential overlapping candidates within the Socialist camp would be resolved by then. And with it, the decision on who the PS should support. "My duty is to safeguard the unity of the PS," he said, relieving those within the party who feared his election as leader would be a fast track to supporting António José Seguro. After all, the new leader himself has among his ranks of longtime supporters who are vocally against Seguro's candidacy, such as Augusto Santos Silva.
And at the last National Committee, the president of the Socialist Party (another socialist who has always distanced himself from Seguroism) even attempted to lighten the burden this decision has placed on the party, due to the potential internal divisions it fosters, by stating that "the Socialist Party may have a formal position, but it does not dictate the votes of its members." But Seguro has already come forward with statements of support from a large portion of the party's federation presidents and also from the majority of PS-elected mayors ( according to Diário de Notícias, 102 of the 149 mayors).
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