Understand how Trump's taxation affects the 5 largest exporting states

The 50% tariff hike announced by Donald Trump on Brazilian products starting August 1st is expected to have the most profound impact on states that export the most to the US, notably São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, and Rio Grande do Sul. Together, these states account for 73% of all Brazilian production and exports to the United States.

In the first half of 2025, these states exported a total of US$14.65 billion to the US, according to official data from Comex Stat, part of the Ministry of Development, Industry, Trade, and Services (MDIC). Total exports between Brazil and the United States totaled R$20 billion, a 4.4% increase compared to the same period last year.

São Paulo alone sent US$6.4 billion from January to June 2025, with emphasis on fruit juices, civil engineering equipment and aircraft produced by Embraer — the Brazilian manufacturer, in fact, is expected to be the Brazilian company most impacted by Trump's surcharge.

Next in line are Rio de Janeiro (US$3.2 billion), Minas Gerais (US$2.5 billion), Espírito Santo (US$1.6 billion), and Rio Grande do Sul (US$950.3 million), with a diverse portfolio of products, including oil, coffee, tobacco, iron, steel, and electrical machinery. See below how much and which main products the top 5 Brazilian states shipped to the US in the first half of the year:

1. Sao Paulo - US$6.4 billion (31.9%)

Aircraft
Fruit juices
Civil engineering equipment

2. Rio de Janeiro - US$ 3.2 billion (15.9%)

Crude petroleum oils
Semi-finished iron and steel products
Petroleum fuel oils

3. Minas Gerais - US$ 2.5 billion (12.4%)

Unroasted coffee
Pig iron
Electric power machines

4. Espírito Santo - US$ 1.6 billion (8.1%)

Semi-finished iron and steel products
Lime, cement and building materials
Cellulose

5. Rio Grande do Sul - US$ 950.3 million (4.7%)

Tobacco
Electric power machines
Footwear

The American Chamber of Commerce for Brazil (Amcham Brasil), which represents Brazilian businesses in the US, speaks of " the risk of severe impacts on jobs, investments, and production chains ." Amcham Brasil's president, Abrão Neto, says that "we are facing a serious scenario that could make a large portion of Brazilian exports to the United States unviable, especially industrial goods, with losses for both economies."

Given the importance of the US to Brazilian foreign trade, governors of the most affected states acknowledged that the 50% tariff is detrimental to strategic sectors and that diplomatic avenues must be found to reverse Trump's decision. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas (Republican) said that "the tariff hike is harmful, especially for those states with higher value-added industrial production," and that it is necessary to "put aside politics" and "get to work."

Romeu Zema (Novo), from Minas Gerais, stated that the 50% tariff is "a wrong and unfair measure" and that it "needs to be reviewed, because it penalizes all Brazilians." Espírito Santo Governor Renato Casagrande (PSB) called the measure a "step backward" and said it is necessary to defend "fair trade and respect between nations."

Eduardo Leite (PSD), from Rio Grande do Sul, highlighted the importance of the US in the state's exports and stated that he will work to "ensure competitiveness and minimize the impact" on the economy. Rio de Janeiro Governor Cláudio Castro (PL) did not comment.

The US has a share of over 50% of Brazilian state exports

In addition to exports, Espírito Santo's main destination is the United States: 33.9% of what is produced in the state goes to the United States. The United States is also São Paulo's main trading partner , accounting for 19.4% of total exports.

But the state whose largest importer is the US, in terms of representation, is Ceará . More than half of its exported production—51.9%—goes to Donald Trump's country. In total, in the first half of this year, trade with the United States totaled R$556.7 million for Ceará, driven primarily by iron and steel exports.

In addition to directly criticizing Trump for the announced taxation, Ceará governor Elmano de Freitas (PT) stated that he will continue to defend "workers and our ability to compete fairly in the international market." The industrial sector, represented by the Federation of Industries of the State of Ceará (Fiec), which is the main target of the crisis in the state, said it would not comment on the matter.

The Brazilian states that have the largest share of the US in foreign trade are the following (figures relative to the first six months of 2025):