Gas price for population will increase by 50%. Will Russians save Gazprom with their own money?

Gazprom's dreams are really coming true. After the information leaks from the State Duma deputies that it was time to raise gas prices, they began to grow by leaps and bounds.

Novye Izvestia reported that on the evening of April 30, when Russians were already distracted by the long May holidays, the Ministry of Economic Development published an updated forecast for the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2026 and for the planning period of 2027–2028.

The ministry’s document clearly states that “the indexation of wholesale gas prices for all categories of consumers in 2026–2028 will be increased by 3% above the forecast inflation.”

Thus, from July 1, 2026 to 2028, public property directly for ordinary citizens will increase in price by 26.6%.

Add to this last year's indexation (11.2%), plus the one already planned for July 2025 (10.3%). We get growth of 48.1%. Simply put, gas for domestic consumers is becoming more expensive faster than forecasts, although this "race" is blurred.

Evgeniya Popova, head of projects at the consulting company Implementa, warned that in the current situation, we should expect indexation of gas prices above the inflation rate.

"The issue of tariff indexation has not only an economic but also a social component. So, while there was an opportunity to subsidize prices due to high export revenues, we adhered to this position," says Evgeniya Popova.

But even without the updated April forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, gas for the population was supposed to rise in price at a rapid pace from July 2024: by 29.8%. The peak of indexation was expected in 2024–2025 (+11.2 and +10.3%, respectively), with a decrease to 4.3 and 4% in July 2026 and 2027.

"Unfortunately, now Russia has made a choice in favor of an accelerated growth of gas prices for the domestic market. This is being done to cover Gazprom's losses associated with the actual collapse of the corporation's export revenues due to the sharp reduction in Russian gas supplies to Europe that has occurred in recent years.

According to the results of last year, Gazprom showed an unprecedented loss of a trillion rubles, and at the same time the company retains obligations to implement extensive investment programs, to maintain the operability of the gas transportation system, and most importantly, to implement the social gasification program in the Russian Federation. And this is a direct order from the president, which no one has removed from Gazprom.

And in this situation, something certainly needs to be done with the Russian domestic market,” comments Alexey Gromov, Chief Director for Energy at the Institute of Energy and Finance.

Let's leave aside the question of how inflation can be combated with such prices for gas in particular and housing and communal services in general, if gas becomes more expensive not only for the population, but also for industry and energy (by 10.3 and 21.3%, respectively, in 2025 alone). The Ministry of Economic Development predicts that by the end of the current year, inflation will decrease to 7.6% (the previous forecast was 7.3%), and from 2026 it will drop to the long-awaited level of 4%.

However, the cost of blue fuel, which is directly stated in the department’s document, will not return to the expected inflation parameters.

Yesterday's statement by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation does not add optimism: the slowdown in inflation at the current moment is insufficient.

The regulator, having published a summary of the key rate, expects that by the end of the second quarter of this year, inflation will fall to 10.1%. And in order to ensure it at 4% in 2026, an additional increase in the key rate may be required.

“Under the baseline scenario, this assumes an average key rate in the range of 19.5-21.5% per annum in 2025 and 13.0-14.0% per annum in 2026,” according to a quote from the Central Bank document.

Analysts have long warned that the loss of the European market was too costly for Gazprom and that the giant would try to recoup the losses, albeit partially, on the domestic consumer. They also said that the gas industry needed reform, which the domestic monopolist would hardly survive.

Alexey Gromov, Director of the Energy Department at the Institute of Energy and Finance, emphasizes:

— The Russian domestic market has long been overdue for a reform that could transform the country’s fairly capacious domestic gas market, where, by the way, almost 500 billion cubic meters of gas are sold annually, into a full-fledged market instrument.

With normal rules of the game, as is already the case in the Russian oil products or electricity market.

Now there is no full-fledged gas market in the Russian Federation. And prices, both wholesale and retail, are regulated by the state. And it turns out that the state is now acting as a conductor of the interests of the gas industry, associated with the accelerated increase in gas tariffs for industry and the population, which will naturally affect the growth of prices in the country, may provoke additional inflationary pressure, etc.

But we must understand that the mechanism of a simple, albeit advanced, increase in gas prices does not solve the problems of the domestic gas market, since neither consumers nor Gazprom will be happy with such price increases. Russians will complain that prices are growing too quickly, and Gazprom will say that prices are not growing enough. And in the end, the government, which is pursuing a policy of advanced price increases, will be the one to blame.

And the right decision in this direction would be a gradual transition to a truly full-fledged gas market within the country, where the price of gas would be determined by the ratio of supply and demand.

Then no one would have any questions, because clear and transparent rules of the game in this market would have been formed. But, unfortunately, neither the government, nor Gazprom, nor independent gas producers are ready or willing to switch to such a model of managing the domestic gas market.

Therefore, for now, the simplest, but at the same time most ineffective scheme is being implemented: an accelerated increase in gas prices for all consumer groups over the next four years.