Last Chance to Buy a Cheap Dollar? Ruble Devaluation Can't Be Postponed Anymore

The first month of summer continued the triumph of the ruble. On June 10, the dollar, calculated through the yuan, fell to 77.7 rubles, and this is a two-year low. On June 11, the "American" sank again - to 76 rubles. On June 12, the ruble went into the minus, but only slightly: the Bank of Russia raised the rate to 79 rubles.

Against the backdrop of a strong ruble, the Ministry of Finance reported on the preliminary execution of the budget for the first five months of the year.

Based on the results of January-May, the hole in the budget continues to widen: the deficit increased to 3.4 trillion rubles (with an annual plan of 3.8 trillion rubles).

The country's oil and gas revenues have fallen by more than 14%. In May alone, Russia received about 500 billion rubles from oil and gas, and there have never been such "tears". At this rate, the Ministry of Finance risks not reaching the planned figure for oil and gas revenues (8.3 trillion rubles) by the end of the year and will collect only about 6 trillion rubles.

Non-oil and gas revenues, the growth rate of which Finance Minister Anton Siluanov now so often draws attention to, have also been stalling since the second quarter. From January to May, their share amounted to 10.5 trillion rubles, while the annual plan was 30.2 trillion. That is, another 19.7 trillion must be collected before the end of the year. But if we take May as our benchmark, when the share of non-oil and gas revenues in the budget amounted to two trillion, then by the end of December the treasury will have received only about 24 trillion rubles.

This indicator, by the way, is a direct signal to business: non-oil and gas revenues are growing due to higher taxes and fees. The state does not have enough money, which means pressure and inspections will increase.

If state budget expenditures remain at the same level, the cash gap could become a record in 2025, increasing to 7 trillion rubles . Over the past ten years, the Russian budget deficit has varied from 1.3 (2017) to 2.9 trillion. The exception was 2020 (4.1 trillion rubles), when the state had to pump money into the economy during the pandemic. Since 2022, this figure has been steadily growing: from 3.3 trillion rubles in 2022 to 3.4 trillion in 2024 and 3.8 trillion this year.

The Ministry of Finance expects that by the end of the year, the budget revenue will amount to 38.5 trillion with an average annual dollar exchange rate of 94.3 rubles (the Ministry of Economic Development previously predicted an exchange rate of 96.5 rubles per dollar).

Since spring, economists have been warning that it is unrealistic to balance the budget when the dollar has fallen below the 80 ruble mark and has been at that level for six months. But the ruble is still holding up. Experts are washing their hands of it and admitting that the fundamental factors that support the ruble have already been discussed, and all that remains is guesswork.

In the usual practice, which always worked before, budget ailments were treated by devaluing the ruble. The price of the "wooden" was lowered below the settlement rate. Simply put, under normal conditions, the dollar would cost over 95 rubles today.

"If the official forecast is 94.3 per dollar, and the ruble is now, well, let's round it up, 12 rubles stronger and will remain strong until July, then in the second half of the year we can expect it to be around 106 rubles per dollar. And if the ruble began to fall in May, then in the second half of the year it should be at a level of around 100 rubles per dollar," financial analyst and author of the Finversia project Yan Art cited calculations.

Associate Professor of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics Vadim Kovrigin told Bankiros that the dollar and euro have probably already found the bottom against the ruble. He believes that the quotes will not change immediately. Until the end of the current week, the dollar will continue to "dangle" within 78-79 rubles.

But devaluation is still inevitable. Finam analyst Alexander Potavin also continues to insist that the ruble will nevertheless begin its gradual decline in June.

Maxim Tarverdiev , a teacher at the Finam Financial Group Training Center , notes that the fundamental force of the ruble's attraction to the 75-76-unit mark for the "American" is the balance of supply and demand on the currency market, which is regulated by changes in import and export volumes. In simple terms, the volume of currency in the country.

Due to a combination of factors (including the decline in imports), there is enough currency in the country, but the pendulum could swing in the other direction at any moment.

“I would like to draw your attention to the fact that it is necessary to think about ways to protect against the inevitable weakening of the ruble right now,” says Maxim Tarverdiev.

One of the most obvious options is to go to an exchange office and buy cash.

Since December last year, the Central Bank has been setting the exchange rate manually.