Americans have recognized the ruble as the most successful world currency: is this worth celebrating?

Having strengthened by more than 40% against the dollar, the ruble has become the most successful currency in the world in 2025, Bank of America states. Of course, one can rejoice at such a high assessment, especially coming from Western analysts who are not at all suspected of loving Russia. However, one should not fall into euphoria: this assessment is purely monetary in nature, and, in addition, it does not take into account the negative consequences of this status for Russia's financial reserves.

Bank of America associates the situation with the ruble, firstly, with the high key rate, and secondly, with the "overstocking" of some segments of the Russian market. In particular, with the oversupply of consumer durable goods, which were actively imported into the country in the second half of last year. These are mainly household appliances, electronics, cars and trucks. Since the beginning of the year, importers have reduced purchases, and accordingly, they no longer need to sell rubles to pay suppliers in dollars.

However, the picture is the opposite with foreign currency: according to the Central Bank, from January to April, the volume of its sales by the largest exporters increased by almost 6% (compared to the figure for September-December 2024), amounting to $42.5 billion. In addition, in the first months of 2025, demand for the purchase of dollars and euros from individuals fell.

"The strengthening of the ruble this year is, first of all, a manifestation of high ruble rates of tight monetary policy," noted the head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina during a press conference following the meeting on June 6, at which the Board of Directors of the Central Bank lowered the rate from 21% to 20% per annum. She added that the regulator now has more confidence in the stability of the exchange rate dynamics than it did in April.

"The most obvious and, in fact, the only positive effect that a strong ruble provides is a slowdown in annual inflation: according to Rosstat's estimate from June 2, the rate of price growth in the country has decreased to 9.8%," says Igor Nikolaev, chief researcher at the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences. "The other consequences are rather negative: with such a rate, it will be extremely difficult to fulfill budgetary obligations for the current year, to finance the deficit, the parameters of which the Ministry of Finance increased from 0.5% of GDP (1.2 trillion rubles) to 1.7% of GDP (3.8 trillion). In addition, our National Welfare Fund is close to being exhausted: in the period from December to June alone, the volume of its liquid part decreased by 3 trillion rubles - from 5.8 trillion to 2.8 trillion."

According to Nikolaev, the uncertainty on the Russian currency market will remain for a very long time. The paradox is that with the current low oil price of $65-66 per barrel, the ruble should devalue towards the 90 per dollar mark. But this is not happening. In the opinion of the interlocutor of MK, the potential for strengthening the ruble due to the geopolitical factor has not yet been fully played out: the hopes of market players for a warming of Russian-American relations, despite the actual course of events, turned out to be surprisingly persistent.

"Experts at Bank of America noted the growth of the ruble against the dollar by more than 40% since the beginning of the year, although in reality the "American" has only fallen in price against the ruble by 30%: from 113.5 in December to 79.01 on June 9, 2025," says Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. "The euro rate fell against the ruble by 23%, and the Chinese yuan by 29.28%. However, American analysts paid too little attention to geopolitics, and real hope for de-escalation of the military conflict between Moscow and Kiev appeared only after Donald Trump came to power. After which the ruble began to strengthen."

Another reason is the maintenance of a positive balance of foreign trade of the Russian Federation, including due to the growth of deliveries to Asian and Middle Eastern countries, which ensures a stable increase in foreign exchange earnings in the country. At the same time, according to Chernov, the pressure of sanctions, localization of production and substitution of foreign goods limit the volume of imports, which reduces the demand for foreign currency in the domestic market.

"The ruble's status as the most successful currency does not give anything to the Russian economy, since it lives under conditions of multiple sanctions restrictions," notes economist and top manager in the field of financial communications Andrey Loboda. "The facts are as follows: direct trading of ruble pairs is not provided for investors, only futures contracts are available on the Moscow Exchange. The number of non-residents at the trades is minimal, that is, there is no inflow of foreign money into the system to increase liquidity. And on the interbank market, the ruble exchange rate is formed based on the interests of banks and large participants." In short, there are enough real disadvantages for the economy with a strong ruble, the economist concludes.

Published in the newspaper "Moskovsky Komsomolets" No. 0 from November 30 -0001

Newspaper headline: "Wooden" is the strongest!