Economist Drozdov: We need to take advantage of the depreciating dollar

According to the results of the first half of the year, the ruble has become the most strengthened currency in the world against the dollar. Since the beginning of the year, it has gained 44.7% against the "American" and rightfully took first place. Following it, however, by a large margin, is the Hungarian forint, which has risen in price by 17%. The top three is closed by the Swedish krona - it has 16.5%. However, not all domestic analysts are happy about such a powerful strengthening of the national currency.

Many financiers are sure that our ruble is too over-strengthened. And they are especially worried that the dollar, which is getting cheaper before our eyes, gives the Russian budget low revenue from exports when converted into rubles.

Although the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina herself believes that a weak ruble is not something to strive for. “This is a sign of the vulnerability of the economy and the population’s mistrust of its own currency,” she said recently.

Let us recall a brief chronicle of the victorious march of the ruble since the beginning of 2025. In January, the dollar was worth 100.86 rubles, and everyone was clutching their heads. Where are we heading? Manufacturers and traders did not miss the opportunity to raise prices for goods with each weakening of the national currency. According to analysts, our consumer basket still includes about 30% of imported supplies.

Then, as if by magic, the ruble began to push out the "American". In February it was already 92.9, in April 83.3, in June 78.9... On July 3, the dollar was worth 78.6 rubles. Now economists are clutching their heads for another reason: let's weaken the national currency!

Indeed, there are certain conventions in the formation of the official ruble exchange rate. After the Moscow Exchange stopped trading in "toxic" currencies a year ago, bank reports and information from digital over-the-counter trading platforms are used to determine the exchange rate. This gives reason to suspect the monetary authorities of "manual control" of the ruble exchange rate.

There may be some truth to this. According to analysts, there are no economic preconditions for the dollar to become cheaper time after time, and the ruble to become stronger and stronger. However, financial analyst Sergei Drozdov has a different position on this matter.

– Should we be happy about the unbridled strengthening of the ruble or, on the contrary, worry?

“We need to take advantage of this,” the expert replies.

- How?

- For example, buy cash currency at exchange offices at a suitable rate. Cash is sold at a higher rate than the official rate, but still... I agree with the head of the Central Bank: we do not need a weak rate. It should be acceptable for everyone: for exporters and for citizens.

– But a strong ruble is not profitable for exporters.

- They are always dissatisfied with something. A dollar for 200 rubles will not be enough for them. Remember, 3-4 years ago an "American" cost 80 rubles - and nothing, they were happy with it

– And what benefit do citizens get from a strong ruble?

– Prices for imported equipment are not rising. I specifically inquired. The price for a coffee machine in winter was 57 thousand rubles, today – 42 thousand. Is there a difference? Prices in stores have stopped rising, or rather, they are rising, but not like before. Strawberries are sold at 750 rubles in kiosks near metro stations. Apparently, the sellers remembered the prices from two years ago and are selling at them today. No one is buying. You can find strawberries in the store for 250 rubles. We have too many “wants” in terms of prices. But not all of them correspond to reality.

– And is the current ruble exchange rate realistic in relation to other currencies? Many experts believe that it is overvalued, overstated…

- Where did they get that from? According to the Central Bank, the rate is fair and reflects the current situation. There are objective economic reasons for the strengthening ruble. In particular, imports have almost halved. And the demand for currency has also fallen, there are no queues at exchange offices.

This situation is repeating itself for the third time. First in 2014 – after the events in Crimea. The dollar flew over 70 rubles, then fell to 51. Then – 2022, a special military operation. The dollar began to cost more than 120 rubles, but the key rate rose, and the exchange rate eventually began to fall. Now the key rate is again 20-21%, the dollar was given more than 100 rubles, and today 78-79. This is already a trend.

– When do you think the ruble will start to fall?

- All my colleagues who previously predicted different dates of the "fall" have now gone quiet. And that is right. No one can say that. Unfortunately, sooner or later it will happen. But today, I repeat, we need to seize the moment.