Experts have revealed what awaits the real estate market when the key rate changes on July 25

On Friday, July 25, the Central Bank will hold another meeting to determine the fate of the key rate. A month ago, the regulator already lowered it by one percentage point - to 20%, giving hope for further easing of monetary policy. According to the Predicta service, 46% of Russians expect a reduction to 18-19%, and 9% - by more than two points (more than 4 thousand people took part in the survey).

- Based on weekly monitoring, we see how user expectations regarding the key rate are dynamically changing in response to economic news, - comments service expert Nikita Molchanovsky. - The current trend shows that most respondents expect a significant reduction in the rate in the near future.

The June decline did not have a significant impact on housing sales, says Dmitry Sofronov, Commercial Director of the DARS Group of Companies. If the regulator takes bolder measures on July 25, a slight increase in the number of applications is possible. However, it is premature to talk about significant growth: mortgage rates are still high - about 20%, and most clients expect a level of around 15%.

If the Bank of Russia reduces the rate by another percentage point in July, this will not lead to fundamental changes, but will be a signal for buyers, believes Anna Terekhova, Sales Director of the development company Marmax. The downward trend continues, which means that you can use a subsidized mortgage now with the expectation of refinancing.

- A gradual reduction of the key rate will allow developers to offer more favorable programs for clients who do not qualify for a family mortgage. Banks are also looking in this direction, developing new options for this category of clients, - emphasizes Gulsina Shakova, head of the mortgage lending department of the TOCHNO group of companies.

Family mortgages with rates of 3.5–4.5% remain the most popular, notes Shakova: “Clients purchase housing at 3.5% - we, as a developer, pay a commission to the bank.”

Yulia Arkhangelskaya, Head of Commercial Services at the Mangazeya development company, confirms: “If we talk about the flow of applications as a whole, it has grown by 20-30%. At the same time, high market rates (19.5-21%) make mortgages unaffordable for a significant part of the population. Buyer activity will recover slowly and in a segmented manner until the end of the year. The main demand will be concentrated on projects available under preferential programs and will come from the most reliable borrowers. We expect a significant pause in further easing of monetary policy - at least until January-February 2026.”

Sofronov expects the rate to reach 16% by the end of the year, and Terekhova - 17%. "Of course, a further reduction in the key rate is inevitable, since the economy is tired of being in difficult conditions all autumn, winter and spring. Many predict a reduction of 2-3%. But we will only find out the real value on Friday," Shakova sums up.

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