In the first half of the year, Russians bought a record volume of cash currency for three years

The increase in savings in cash currency in the hands of citizens from January to June 2025 was equal to $1.4 billion. And the total volume of dollars, euros, yuan and other foreign banknotes that Russians keep at home reached $93.5 billion. This is evidenced by data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Why citizens began to buy up cash. currency, experts told MK.

From January to June of this year, the total amount of foreign currency — dollars, euros, yuan, dirhams and other foreign banknotes — in the hands of citizens reached $93.5 billion. Over the six months, the increase was $1.4 billion, which was the largest value since the first half of 2022, when, due to sanctions and general uncertainty, citizens actively withdrew money from deposits and bought cash currency. At that time, the population accumulated $97.7 billion in currency. Then, Russians began to gradually sell it off. By the beginning of 2025, the amount of cash currency in the hands of the population decreased to $92.1 billion. But since January of this year, the trend has changed again.

As noted by Natalia Milchakova, leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, despite the fact that in 2022, especially in the first half of the year, the growth rate of Russians' savings in cash currency set a record, jumping by 14% compared to 2021, from the second half of 2022 to the beginning of 2025, the volume of Russians' savings did not grow from half-year to half-year, but decreased. That is, in the first six months of this year, savings in cash currency showed growth of 2% for the first time in the last three years compared to the second half of the previous year, despite the ruble strengthening significantly during this period. "This may indicate that Russians expect a new devaluation of the ruble by the end of the year," the expert says. - In addition, since the spring, interest rates on ruble deposits began to gradually decline, and in June, after the first reduction in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation this year, these rates increased significantly. It turns out that banks are expecting a slowdown in price growth and, accordingly, another rate cut, while the population is skeptical about optimistic inflation forecasts and does not have much confidence in the stability of the ruble.”

Although the increase looks moderate in terms of the total amount, the very fact of the return of interest in cash shows that people are looking for protective instruments for their spare money. As Meri Valishvili, Associate Professor of the Department of State and Municipal Finance at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, reminded, deposit rates are gradually becoming less attractive than before, and savings are still a priority. An alternative instrument for preserving money from depreciation is cash currency. In addition, the dynamics of the exchange rate is also changing: at the beginning of summer, the national currency strengthened against the US dollar, which made it possible to buy currency with the lowest costs. It is also necessary to take into account the informational influence on public opinion: a number of authoritative experts say that the ruble may weaken further, which also influences the choice of citizens who will try to win on the exchange rate difference.

But this is not the only reason. “On the one hand, there are expectations of a weakening ruble and a desire to insure against currency risks,” explains economist and top manager in the field of financial communications Andrey Loboda. “On the other hand, there are local concerns about disruptions in infrastructure and the operation of banking services. For many, cash dollars and euros remain a reserve “for extreme cases.” The picture is completed by mistrust in long-term financial instruments: general uncertainty encourages keeping money “under the mattress.” This is not the most positive signal for the economy. The growth of currency in the hands of citizens reduces the volume of liquidity in the banking system and locally limits lending.”

For the people themselves, this is a step towards sustainability in conditions of uncertainty, but it deprives them of profitability: cash depreciates under the pressure of inflation. Therefore, the strategy is justified as a protective measure, but in the long term it loses out to investment instruments with profitability (i.e. deposits, shares, bonds), the expert warns.

"Considering that housing and communal services tariffs were raised from July 1, 2025, and inflation expectations, according to the Bank of Russia, began to grow in August for the first time since May of this year, this means that the volume of citizens' savings in cash currency may grow even more in the second half of the year," Milchakova predicts. It is quite possible that if the ruble depreciates by the end of December to 85-90 rubles per dollar, and average interest rates on deposits fall to 11-13.5% per annum, then by the end of the year the growth of Russians' savings in cash currency may amount to 3-5%, the analyst believes.