Russia Counts Migrants: Tightening Policy Leads to Paradox

Recently, the Ministry of Labor proposed to reduce the permissible share of foreigners working in Russia in nine areas in 2026 - for example, it is proposed to reduce their share in the alcohol and tobacco trade to zero. In addition, today, migration policy is being tightened in many regions of Russia. For example, in St. Petersburg, migrants are not allowed to work as taxi drivers since July of this year, and as couriers since August.

In 2024, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, about 6.3 million migrants arrived in Russia, half of whom came to Russia for employment purposes. This was stated at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum by the head of the Main Directorate for Migration Issues of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Valentina Kazakova. Most migrants come to Russia from Uzbekistan (23.3%), Tajikistan (16.7%), Kyrgyzstan (10.4%) and Belarus (9.5%).

In March of this year, Rosstat reported on the migration increase in 2024, which amounted to 568.5 thousand people. The bulk of the migration increase in 2024 was provided by migrants from abroad: 128 thousand people arrived from Tajikistan, 107 thousand from Uzbekistan, 105 thousand from Kyrgyzstan. The only country where not a migration increase, but an outflow of migrants was recorded was Ukraine - in Russia, the excess of those leaving over those arriving in 2024 was 26 thousand people.

Russia is also experiencing an increase in migration from distant foreign countries: according to Rosstat, the increase in migrants from China was 24 thousand people, from India - 16 thousand people, and from North Korea and Syria - 2.6 thousand people.

Also, according to Rosstat, the migration outflow from the new regions of the Russian Federation (Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions) decreased from 93.7 thousand people in 2023 to 32.8 thousand people in 2024.

If, according to the results of 2023, the migration outflow from new subjects to the territory of other regions of Russia amounted to 93.7 thousand people, then in 2024 it decreased almost three times, to 32.8 thousand people.

Last year, the head of the Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum that 1.2 million migrants entered Moscow in the first four months of 2024, 880,000 entered the Moscow region, and 860,000 entered St. Petersburg. At the same time, Bastrykin drew attention to the fact that over time, the number of migrants working in construction is decreasing.

“According to our data, only 13% of those who come to us to build something work on construction sites,” Bastrykin said at the forum.

In January 2025, the National Research University Higher School of Economics published a study stating that about three-quarters of all migrants work in construction, trade, transport, and administrative activities (security and cleaning of buildings and streets). At the same time, the share of migrants in construction and administrative activities in the capital exceeds 50% of those employed. In transport, trade, hotels, and the catering industry, migrants make up about a third of all workers. Thus, the authors of the study conclude that Moscow is built, guarded, and cleaned primarily by migrants. Such is the paradox.

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, in the first six months of 2025, about 114 thousand work permits were issued to foreign citizens, one and a half times more than in the same period a year earlier. At the same time, 40 thousand permits were issued to highly qualified foreign citizens, which is twice as much as in the first half of 2024.

In June 2025, the head of the Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, stated that from January to May 2025, migrants committed 18.8 thousand crimes, which is about 5% of all crimes committed in Russia. Compared to last year, crime has increased by 10%. At the same time, the number of cases against migrants sent to court has increased by 15%. Representatives of the Ministry of Internal Affairs explain the increase in crimes from January to May 2025 by a significant increase in "proactively suppressed criminal acts in the sphere of illegal drug trafficking" (an increase of 1.6 times - from 2673 to 4220). At the same time, the police note that the number of foreigners who committed drug crimes decreased by 25.2%, and the total number of migrant criminals - by 3.3% (from 8.1 thousand to 7.8 thousand).

According to the results of the research project "If to be precise", the share of foreign citizens among those convicted of crimes amounted to 4 to 4.5%. At the same time, analysts note that the level of crime varies depending on the region: for example, in Moscow, migrants commit crimes more often than in the rest of the country: in Moscow, about 15% of migrants commit crimes, while in Russia as a whole - about 4%. At the same time, in Moscow, according to statistics, the most common crimes committed by migrants are sexualized violence and causing serious bodily harm.

As experts at the Moscow government note, the share of crimes committed by migrants has been stable for 20 years - at the level of 4-5%. Also in 2024, the director of the Institute of Demographic Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences Marina Khramova stated in an interview with RBC that 85% of crimes among migrants are committed by men, and the crimes are mainly of a domestic nature and occur predominantly in the migrant environment.

According to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, there has been a 4.2% decrease in the number of serious crimes committed by migrants (from 2,307 to 2,211), including murders and attempted murders by 3.6%, and cases of causing serious bodily harm by 13.6%. The number of crimes against property has decreased by 18.9%. The share of criminal acts committed by foreign citizens from the total number of preliminarily investigated crimes was 5.3%.

Thus, current statistics indicate a slight reduction in the number of crimes committed by migrants, which is explained by tougher measures on the part of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, while a significant portion of crimes are of an intra-group nature.