The Central Bank kept the key rate at 21% at today's meeting

— First Deputy Chairman of VTB Dmitry Pianov called the Central Bank "a doctor on Neglinnaya" and the 21% rate "an experimental medicine." Can you please hear the diagnosis for the Russian economy from a "doctor"?

— This is such a clear comparison, we ourselves sometimes use metaphors, this comparison, after all, should be treated with a very important caveat. A high key rate, a tight monetary policy — this is not an experimental, but a very effective medicine that has been tested many times in a variety of conditions, by different countries, this is, so to speak, a “prescription drug” that has been and is being successfully used by central banks in many countries. But a delay or insufficient dosage can only worsen the patient’s condition, and we ourselves often compare high inflation with a high temperature in a person, and this medicine — a high key rate — helps to cope with overheating by demand, and we see that inflation has already begun to decline, but the prescribed course must be completed to avoid relapses.

— We remain tied not only to what is happening with the rate at the moment, but to the future, how fast the slowdown in inflation will be, how noticeable the slowdown in economic activity and lending will be by June. In general, we see a picture of a fairly significant slowdown in economic activity and, of course, in lending, if we maintain this pace, I think that we will move towards a decrease, towards a softening of the rhetoric in June. But for now, the Central Bank has chosen a wait-and-see position, and this is probably not so much about the current data, but about the current external uncertainty. We are all frozen in anticipation of geopolitical news, and in general, the world needs to figure out what will happen there with trade wars. And at such moments, perhaps, the immutability and constancy of the signal is a justified approach.

— Here are some more details from the press release: firstly, the Central Bank kept its inflation forecast for this year at 7-8%, and secondly, it lowered its forecast for the price of a barrel of oil before tax from $65 to $60 — this follows from the press release. How should this be interpreted?

— There is still a very modest cancellation in oil prices, we are already actually going with prices below 60 for Russian oil, but this is still an adjustment, which in no way takes into account the risks that have developed on the global perimeter. Therefore, this is only a tribute to the current data, this is not yet about taking into account changes in the external situation, and precisely because this outline has not yet fully emerged. Although I think that we should still talk in terms of a noticeable deterioration in the external situation - both raw materials and general economic, while this is still only just dawning on us.

— Nevertheless, despite the fact that this is happening, some analysts believe that the current situation, despite all the foreign policy and economic problems, trade wars, is close to the scenario of a soft landing of the economy. And yesterday, Putin also said that this year the GDP will decrease, and therefore, in these conditions, they predict that the Central Bank may begin to reduce the key rate already in June. Given all that you said, is such an option even remotely possible?

— Absolutely yes, and, by the way, the deterioration of the external situation is also, although we are used to worrying primarily about the ruble, but now the situation has changed dramatically, and we must understand that the deterioration of the external situation is primarily about the strengthening of recessionary risks, we are definitely already in a landing. Ensuring that this landing does not become very hard, remains soft - this is about really moving what can be moved. And now the budget is already in a fairly tight framework, so all that remains is to move the interest rate. And we are one of those who expect the rate to start falling in June.