The egg became simple, it will become golden: a new rise in prices is expected in the fall

Over the past year and a half, the common chicken egg has become a kind of symbol of growing inflation: the product has become so abnormally expensive that the problem had to be solved at the presidential level. It seems that they have solved it - this year, egg prices have been going down. The product has fallen in price especially rapidly in June. But the music did not play for long, and now the Minister of Agriculture is warning about a possible new round of price increases: purchase prices do not even cover basic expenses. The reason for dumping is overproduction, accumulated stocks and the desire to avoid losses. As experts warn, cheap eggs are a temporary phenomenon. By autumn, prices may soar again: trade markups, more expensive feed and unprofitable production will do their job.

I went to the nearest store to buy a dozen eggs - and was confused: on the bottom shelf, among half-empty boxes, category C2 eggs were neatly laid out for 38 rubles. Next to them, C3 - for 32. I stood there, feeling the packaging, looking for a catch. A year ago at this time, eggs were "golden": for C1 they asked for a hundred or so. Now it seems like I should be happy, but in my head the question is spinning: isn't it too cheap?

Since the beginning of 2025, prices for chicken eggs in Russia have fallen by more than 20%. Some categories have fallen almost by half. According to Cenosaurus, a dozen category C3 eggs have fallen in price by 50% since January, C2 by 26.7%. Even the more familiar category C1 for city dwellers has fallen by almost 15%. This is not an inflationary miracle or an attraction of unprecedented generosity from producers and traders, but the market's reaction to a simple economic fact: there are too many eggs.

"In the first five months of 2025, production grew by 6% compared to the same period last year. But consumption did not. As a result, warehouses are overflowing, demand has fallen, and manufacturers have begun to lower prices, just to avoid losses on disposal," explains Olga Lebedinskaya, associate professor at the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics' Department of Statistics.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in May the wholesale price for a dozen eggs fell to 63.9 rubles, which is 25% less than in January. Producers are sounding the alarm: at such prices it is impossible to recoup even the cost of feed and electricity, not to mention the maintenance of poultry farms and wages.

"The profitability of egg production is currently approaching zero, and sometimes even going into the negative," says Dmitry Leonov, deputy chairman of Rusprodsoyuz. "In the spring, egg prices fell because retailers signed long-term contracts at reduced prices. Now, producers are forced to resort to harsh dumping to sell off the surplus."

This is also confirmed by the Minister of Agriculture Oksana Lut: "Purchase prices currently do not cover the cost of production. If the situation does not change, an inevitable correction will occur in the fall."

In early July, the cost of a dozen eggs began to rise again — by an average of 3.2% compared to June. The growth is modest so far, but the trend is alarming. According to Lebedinskaya, several factors will begin to accelerate the price closer to autumn: firstly, compound feed has become more expensive — by 5.2% since the beginning of the year, and this is the basic expense item for poultry farmers. Secondly, high trade markups of chains — up to 20% — do not allow prices to “freeze” in place.

"Every penny spent on feed automatically affects the egg. And not only the egg - all poultry products become more expensive, from meat to bone meal. And this even affects the price of pork and beef, because the meal is used as an additive to feed for young animals," Lebedinskaya emphasizes.

In addition, in the autumn period, egg production in hens traditionally decreases due to shorter daylight hours and temperature changes. This also affects the price - not in favor of the consumer.

Compared to last year, when outbreaks of bird flu hit the chicken population, the situation in 2025 looks good. The number of laying hens has grown by 20 million in two years, and there are no epidemics. But this coin has a flip side: more chickens - more eggs - more problems with sales.

Interestingly, while prices in Russia are falling, the global situation remains the opposite: in the US, the cost of a dozen eggs has increased by 238% in four years. The reasons are the same - feed, fuel, labor. But, unlike the Russian market, the Western market simply shifted the costs to the buyer.

However, Russian consumers also recall with apprehension November 2023, when eggs rose in price by 40% in just one month. Will this happen again? Experts tend to give a moderate forecast: yes, prices will rise, but without the previous sharpness.

"We are already seeing a slight rise. By September-October, most likely, a dozen eggs will return to the 90-110 ruble mark. This will depend on both the feed harvest and the overall inflation rate," says Leonid Kholod, Doctor of Economics.

According to experts, there is no real threat of a sharp jump - production is stable, logistics are established, and reserves are significant. But there is no point in hoping for a "ten for 32" in the near future.

While it's summer, it's time to take advantage of the situation. Egg prices are currently at a minimum, and the seasonal vegetable harvest partially compensates for the possible growth of other items in the check. However, it is worth understanding: a cheap egg is temporary, like a vacation. Already in September, price tags may "hatch" with new numbers. And if in June an egg was "divinely" expensive, then in the fall it may well become "golden" again.

Published in the newspaper "Moskovsky Komsomolets" No. 0 from November 30 -0001

Newspaper headline: The Egg of Destiny