Why Brussels is imposing new sanctions amid the American 'thaw'

The European Union has approved the 16th package of anti-Russian sanctions, timing it to coincide with the third anniversary of the military actions in Ukraine. This step is in sharp contrast to the signals from Washington, addressed simultaneously to Moscow and Brussels. At the moment, the Trump administration is clearly not going to introduce any new restrictions against the Russian Federation; moreover, the head of the White House himself is radiating friendliness. The Europeans, however, are not retreating from their irreconcilable position, doing so in a highly demonstrative manner.

If we take the financial and economic component of the package, it includes: a ban on imports of primary aluminum from Russia; an expansion of the list of vessels from the shadow fleet by 74 items; a ban on access to the SWIFT system for 13 regional Russian banks; a ban on the provision of construction services; additional restrictions on the export of goods and technologies, including those related to the exploration of oil and gas fields; a ban on European businesses carrying out transactions with several airports in the Russian Federation, as well as exporting aircraft and aviation technologies; a ban on foreign banks on transactions using the Financial Message Transfer System of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

In addition, it will be prohibited to store Russian oil and oil products in the EU, export chromium and its compounds, game consoles, joysticks, flight simulators to the Russian Federation. The European Union also added 53 companies to the list of legal entities participating in bypassing sanctions against Russia, mainly from third countries - China, India, Kazakhstan, Singapore, Turkey, the UAE and Uzbekistan.

At the same time, the package did not include a direct ban on supplies of Russian LNG to the continent, the most radical measure that Europeans had previously discussed. And now the most potentially painful step for Moscow of all the above looks like a complete embargo on aluminum supplies. Until now, this scenario was considered unlikely, although in 2024, according to Eurostat, the physical volumes of imports from Russia decreased by 38% compared to the 2023 figure, amounting to about 300 thousand tons.

"The European Union developed and approved its latest package rather by inertia," says Oleg Kalmanovich, chief analyst at Neomarkets. "Against the backdrop of the changed geopolitical situation and internal problems in the EU, particularly in Germany, politicians of the Old World, in order to save face, continue to invent new restrictions. Each time, the sanctions become less "toothy" and more formal. I would consider the disconnection of 13 Russian banks from SWIFT to be the most serious. This could create problems with international transactions, and accordingly, new bypass payment routes will have to be found."

As for the ban on storing Russian oil in the EU, it primarily affects the buyer, not the seller. After all, in order to use all the volumes, storage capacities are needed, notes Kalmanovich. And in a situation of a ban, Europeans will be forced to refuse new purchases when oil prices are adjusted to their advantage. With Russian LNG, it is also clear: the lack of mention of it in the package indicates the criticality of this raw material for Europe.

"Why should Europe shoot itself in the foot: by buying LNG from us, it partially compensates for the loss of pipeline gas supplies," says Nikita Maslennikov, a leading expert at the Center for Political Technologies. "In addition, it is a promising and easy-to-transport energy source; it can be easily moved across the continent, from one point to another. And in terms of energy security, maintaining reserves in gas storage facilities in cold weather conditions, it is extremely important. As for the ban on aluminum supplies, the effectiveness of this measure is not obvious. Russian metallurgists have largely reoriented themselves to Asian markets, although, of course, they have to withstand serious competition there with colleagues from China and India."

But overall, there is a feeling of some deliberate declarativeness of the 16th package. In Maslennikov's opinion, for Europeans this is also an opportunity to bargain with America, to attract attention: like, don't forget about our partnership relations, let's find compromises.