February inflation expectations survey shared!

As the announcement of inflation data for February approaches, the economic agenda in Turkey has begun to heat up. The inflation rates to be announced by TÜİK will be decisive in many areas, from salary increases to social assistance, from rent increases to market expectations. While the estimates shaped by the data from the Central Bank's inflation expectations survey in particular are drawing public attention, how the figures to be announced will be reflected in economic balances is of great importance. Here are the latest developments regarding the inflation rate for February 2025...

WHEN WILL THE FEBRUARY INFLATION RATE BE ANNOUNCED?

Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) shares inflation data on the 3rd of each month. Accordingly; February inflation figures will be announced on Monday, March 3, 2025 at 10:00.

FEBRUARY INFLATION EXPECTATION CENTRAL BANK SURVEY

TCMB published the February Market Participants Survey, conducted with 69 participants consisting of real and financial sector representatives and professionals.

Accordingly, the CPI increase expectation for February, which was 2.65 percent last month, increased to 3.23 percent in this survey period. The current year-end CPI increase expectation increased from 27.05 percent to 28.30 percent. The CPI increase expectation decreased from 25.38 percent to 25.26 percent for the 12-month period, and from 17.72 percent to 17.26 percent for the 24-month period.

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 MONTHS

When the participants' probability estimates for the next 12 months are evaluated in the survey period of February 2025, it is predicted that the CPI will increase in the range of 21.00 - 23.99 percent with a probability of 22.80 percent, in the range of 24.00 - 26.99 percent with a probability of 41.11 percent, and in the range of 27.00 - 29.99 percent with a probability of 21.46 percent.

According to the evaluation made based on point estimates in the same survey period, it is observed that 14.52 percent of the participants' expectations are in the range of 21.00 - 23.99 percent, 48.39 percent of the participants' expectations are in the range of 24.00 - 26.99 percent, and 19.35 percent of the participants' expectations are in the range of 27.00 - 29.99 percent.

INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AFTER 24 MONTHS

When the participants' probability estimates for the next 24 months are evaluated in the survey period of February 2025, it is predicted that the CPI will increase in the range of 13.00 - 15.99 percent with a probability of 24.02 percent, in the range of 16.00 - 18.99 percent with a probability of 36.87 percent, and in the range of 19.00 - 21.99 percent with a probability of 24.28 percent.

According to the evaluation made based on point estimates in the same survey period, when the CPI inflation expectations for the next 24 months are evaluated, it is observed that 26.79 percent of the participants have expectations between 13.00 and 15.99 percent, 33.93 percent have expectations between 16.00 and 18.99 percent, and 28.57 percent have expectations between 19.00 and 21.99 percent.