The tariff agenda and signals of easing towards the Fed are prominent in global markets.

Concerns about the potential economic impact of the US administration's tariffs continue. Investors are closely following these announcements, and Trump announced that a 35% tariff will be imposed on Canadian products, separate from sectoral tariffs, starting August 1st.

Trump emphasized that goods transited through other countries to avoid higher rates would be subject to higher tariffs, adding that any retaliation from Canada would be added to the announced tariff.

On the other hand, Trump, in his post on his social media account, pointed out that some stocks reached all-time highs and cryptocurrencies rose to record levels.

Trump, noting that the US has levied hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs, reiterated his call for the Fed to lower interest rates. He stated that Fed Chair Jerome Powell has destroyed US credit, adding that the country has made a massive comeback and that the Fed's policy rate should reflect this.

Analysts stated that uncertainties regarding tariffs did not materialize at the feared levels, and that this situation prevented an increase in risk perception.

On the other hand, while the inflationary impact of tariffs in the US is expected to become apparent in the last quarter of the year, clues are being sought in the statements of Fed officials regarding the steps the Bank will take in monetary policy.

Fed Board Member Christopher Waller stated that monetary policy is tight and that they may consider reducing the policy rate this month, adding that he is in the minority on this issue and that this is not a political issue.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also stated that the time to start lowering interest rates is approaching, and that two interest rate cuts this year may be appropriate.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said he sees upside risks to inflation but said it was too early to know whether the tariffs would have a lasting impact on prices.

Signals of a rate cut from Fed officials have strengthened the possibility that the bank will cut interest rates in September, if not this month.

On the macroeconomic data front, the number of first-time unemployment benefit applicants in the US fell to 227,000 in the week ending July 5, falling below market expectations.

Driven by these developments, the 10-year US Treasury yield is at 4.37%. The price of gold continued its rise for the third trading day, rising 0.3% to $3,335 per ounce, driven by growing optimism about the Fed's interest rate cuts.

While the dollar index rose by 0.1 percent to 97.8, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil fell by 0.2 percent to trade flat at $68.2.

Bitcoin price also reached a record high of $118,052, driven by increased risk appetite and institutional purchases.

On the corporate side, shares of US airline Delta, whose profit and revenue exceeded expectations in its balance sheet announced today, gained 12 percent.

Tesla's shares also closed the day up nearly 5 percent after the company's CEO, Elon Musk, shared that Grok would soon be coming to Tesla cars and that the robot taxi service area would be expanded.

On the New York Stock Exchange yesterday, the S&P 500 index rose 0.27 percent and the Nasdaq index rose 0.09 percent, both setting closing records. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also gained 0.43 percent. Index futures contracts in the US opened the day with mixed activity.

European stock markets followed a mixed course yesterday, with developments regarding a potential trade agreement with the US and geopolitical risks being closely monitored.

European Union (EU) Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that they have provided approximately 165 billion euros of support to Ukraine since the beginning of the war and that they will cover most of the external financing the country will need this year.

Meanwhile, the EU Commission announced that international and public financial institutions signed a new agreement package worth 2.3 billion euros to support Ukraine's recovery and reconstruction efforts.

Meanwhile, Dirk Jandura, President of the German Wholesale and Foreign Trade Association (BGA), stated that German exporters do not want an agreement "at any cost" in their trade dispute with the US.

Yesterday, the FTSE 100 index in England rose 1.23 percent and the CAC 40 index in France rose 0.3 percent, while the DAX 40 in Germany fell 0.38 percent and the FTSE MIB 30 in Italy fell 0.72 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe opened the new day negative.

While developments regarding the tariff agenda and news flows suggesting that the Chinese government may make some decisions regarding crypto assets are prominent on the Asian side today, a mixed trend is observed in the regional equity markets.

News that the Chinese government may grant brokerage firms licenses to trade crypto assets has boosted the value of stocks in regional markets. Furthermore, developments suggesting that the Chinese government may also provide support to the real estate sector have also highlighted risk appetite.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs economists raised their forecast for Asian stocks due to a more favorable macro environment and greater certainty regarding tariffs.

With these developments, the Shanghai Composite Index in China gained 1.1 percent and the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong gained 1.8 percent near the close.

While the Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell 0.1 percent, the Kospi index in South Korea remained flat.

Following a buying-heavy trend yesterday, the BIST 100 index on the Borsa Istanbul closed the day with a 1.61 percent gain at 10,331.31 points. The August futures contract based on the BIST 30 index on the Borsa Istanbul Futures and Options Market (VIOP) traded at 12,172.00 points in yesterday evening's session, 0.3 percent above the regular session close.

AA Finans's expectations survey regarding the "May 2025 Balance of Payments" data, to be released today by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), concluded with the participation of 16 economists. According to the survey, the economists projected a current account deficit of $1.084 billion in May.

Economists' current account deficit expectations for the period ranged from $280 billion to $4.8 billion. Economists predicted the current account deficit would reach $19.783 billion in 2025. Economists' current account deficit expectations for 2025 ranged from $17 billion to $22 billion.

USD/TRY closed at 40.0730 yesterday with a 0.07 percent increase, and is being traded at 40.1720 today with a 0.25 percent increase at the opening of the interbank market.

Analysts stated that the domestic balance of payments and retail sales will be monitored today, while the federal budget balance in the US, growth in the UK, industrial production and foreign trade balance will be monitored abroad. They noted that from a technical perspective, the 10,400 and 10,500 levels in the BIST 100 index are resistance levels, while 10,200 and 10,100 points are support levels.

Here are the data to follow in the markets today:

09.00 UK May gross domestic product

09.00 UK May industrial production

09.00 UK, May foreign trade balance

10:00 Türkiye, May balance of payments

10.00 Türkiye, May retail sales

9:00 PM US, June federal budget balance