When and on what date will inflation data be announced? What is TÜİK's February 2025 inflation expectation?

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Monthly CPI Expectation Increased to 3.23 Percent

The February CPI increase, which was estimated to be 2.65 percent last month, rose to 3.23 percent in the latest survey period. This shows that market expectations that inflationary pressures will continue have strengthened.

Year-end inflation forecast on the rise

Survey participants' inflation expectations for the end of 2025 were also revised upwards. The year-end CPI estimate, which was announced as 27.05 percent in January, rose to 28.30 percent as of February.

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Inflation Expectations for the Next 12 and 24 Months

There was a slight decline in medium and long-term inflation expectations. The 12-month CPI expectation fell from 25.38 percent to 25.26 percent, and the 24-month expectation fell from 17.72 percent to 17.26 percent.

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Probability Distribution for 24 Months Ahead

Participants' inflation estimates for the next 24 months were evaluated in different probability ranges. Accordingly:

There is a 24.02 percent probability that the CPI will be between 13.00 and 15.99 percent, and there is a 36.87 percent probability that the CPI will be between 16.00 and 18.99 percent.

It is estimated that the CPI will range between 19.00 and 21.99 percent with a 24.28 percent probability.