More small boat arrivals under Starmer than Sunak, despite ex-PM being in power seven months longer

More migrants have crossed the English Channel in small boats in the 13 months that Sir Keir Starmer has been in power than that did during the whole of Rishi Sunak's 20-month premiership.

The total number of people who have arrived under Sir Keir's time in government has now reached 50,716 - equivalent to 126 per day, surpassing the total of 50,637 (82 per day) that arrived under his predecessor.

If the current rate is sustained, by the end of 2025 more migrants will have crossed the Channel under Sir Keir than the number that did under Boris Johnson, despite Mr Johnson having been prime minister for more than three years.

Mr Johnson's premiership coincided with the COVID pandemic, when the number of people arriving in the UK was low for a sustained period while lockdowns were in place in both the UK and Europe.

Talking about the weather

The Home Office has pointed out that Labour took office in summer, when good weather tends to boost the number of Channel crossings. That is true, although the number of arrivals in a rolling 12-month period has also been steadily rising and now sits just short of the all-time record.

A total of 45,823 people have arrived in the past 365 days, the highest total since April 2023.

It was 46,870 when Rishi Sunak took office at the end of October 2022, following very high numbers of arrivals during the last months of Mr Johnson's tenure that continued through the short reign of Liz Truss. Within five days it reached 48,670, which is still the record.

By the time Mr Sunak handed over to Sir Keir, it had fallen by more than a third, to 31,578. It has risen by 45% since then.

Analysing the number of crossings over a full year means each period is equal in terms of the seasons it represents, but not necessarily the weather. The Home Office says that this winter was unusually sunny and lacking in wind, which has contributed to the record number of arrivals so far in 2025.

That is true, but previous analysis by the Sky News Data x Forensics team found the high number of small boat arrivals under Labour cannot just be blamed on this. More migrants were also crossing on days when weather conditions were more challenging.

This week, the first migrants were detained under a new "one-in one-out" deal agreed with France. Under the pilot scheme, the UK can exchange a migrant who arrived illegally for one who has not tried to cross and can pass security and eligibility checks. Numbers are limited and are thought to be up to 50 a week.

The government hopes this will act as a deterrent.

But our analysis found 50 people a week is less than 5% of the average number of weekly arrivals, and less than 0.3% of total net migration to the UK.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.