Tesla investors are growing wary of Elon Musk's futuristic promises

At Tesla, vehicle sales are slumping, profits are thinning and revenue from regulatory credit sales are poised to dry up due to Republican-led policy changes.

In the past, CEO Elon Musk's futuristic promises have convinced investors to look past top and bottom line numbers.

Not now.

Following another fairly dismal earnings report this week, Musk told analysts on the call that Tesla's electric vehicles will soon become driverless, making money for owners while they sleep. He also said Tesla's robotaxi service, which the company recently started testing in a limited capacity in Austin, Texas, will expand to other states, with a goal of being able to reach half the U.S. population by year-end, "assuming we have regulatory approvals."

It didn't matter.

Tesla shares plummeted 8% on Thursday as investors focused on the immediate challenges facing the company, including the rapid rise of lower-cost EV competitors, particularly in China, and a political backlash against Musk that harmed Tesla's brand in the U.S. and Europe.

Automotive sales declined 16% year-over-year in the second quarter for the EV maker, with weak sales numbers continuing in Europe and California. Musk said there could be a "few rough quarters" ahead because of the EV credits expiring and President Donald Trump's tariffs.

The stock bounced back some on Friday, gaining 3.5%, but still ended the week down and has now fallen 22% this year, the worst performance among tech's megacaps. The Nasdaq rose 1% for the week and is up more than 9% in 2025, closing at a record on Friday.

"Look, we love robotaxis. And robots," wrote analysts at Canaccord Genuity, who recommend buying Tesla's stock, in a note after the earnings report. "Over time, Tesla is well positioned to benefit from these future-forward opportunities."

The analysts, however, said that they're focused on the profit and loss statement, writing: "But we love growth too, in the here and now. We need the P&L dynamics to turn."

Analysts at Jefferies described the earnings update as "a bit dull." And Goldman Sachs said Tesla's robotaxi effort is "still small" with limited technical data points.

Tesla didn't respond to a request for comment.

Musk, who has previously called himself "pathologically optimistic," has been able to sway shareholders and send the stock soaring at times with promises of self-driving cars, humanoid robots and more affordable EVs.

But after a decade of missed self-imposed deadlines on autonomous driving, Wall Street is watching Tesla fall behind Alphabet's Waymo in the U.S. and Baidu's Apollo Go in China.

In Tesla's shareholder deck, the company said the second quarter marked the start of its "transition from leading the electric vehicle and renewable energy industries to also becoming a leader in AI, robotics and related services." The company didn't offer any new guidance for growth or profits for the year ahead.

Business Insider reported on Friday that Tesla told staff its robotaxi service could launch in the San Francisco Bay Area as soon as this weekend.

But Tesla hasn't applied for permits that would be required to run a driverless ridehailing service in California, CNBC confirmed. The company would first need authorizations from the state's Department of Motor Vehicles and the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC).

The CPUC told CNBC on Friday, that under existing permits, Tesla can only operate a human-driven chartered vehicle service, not carry passengers in robotaxis.

On the earnings call, Musk and other Tesla execs claimed the company was working on regulatory approvals to launch in Nevada, Arizona, Florida and other markets, in addition to San Francisco, but offered no details about what would be required.

Within Austin, the company said its robotaxi service had driven 7,000 miles, and that Tesla has been restricting its robotaxis' to roads with a speed limit of 40 miles per hour. The Austin service involves a small fleet of about 10 to 20 Model Y vehicles equipped with the company's latest self-driving systems.

The Tesla robotaxis rely on remote supervision by employees in a customer service center, and a human safety supervisor in the front passenger seat, ready to intervene if needed.

Compare that to what Alphabet said on its second-quarter earnings call the same day as Tesla's results.

"The Waymo Driver has now autonomously driven over 100 miles on public roads, and the team is testing across more than 10 cities this year, including New York and Philadelphia," Alphabet said. Meanwhile, Waymo has become significant enough that Alphabet added a category to its Other Bets revenue description in its latest quarterly filing.

"Revenues from Other Bets are generated primarily from the sale of autonomous transportation services, healthcare-related services and internet services," the filing said. The Other Bets segment remains relatively small, with revenue coming in at $373 million in the quarter.

Regardless of investor skepticism, Musk is more bullish than ever.

On Friday, the world's richest person posted on his social network X that he thinks Tesla will someday be worth $20 trillion. On the earnings call earlier in the week, he said that when it comes to AI for cars and robots, "Tesla is actually much better than Google by far" and "much better than anyone at real world AI."

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