2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Why are Rafael Devers, Sean Manaea, and Coby Mayo dropping in the rankings?

We spend all offseason working on our rankings for the upcoming Fantasy Baseball season, and then Spring Training invariably arrives and screws it all up. We haven't seen too many wholesale changes to the rankings in the week or so since pitchers and catchers reported, but I've made a few tweaks here in the early going, and today I'm highlighting three names who have dropped since the start of Spring Training – one early-rounder, one mid-rounder, and one late-rounder in all. Here's why they're moving down:

Rafael Devers, 3B, Red Sox

New ranking: 37th overall in Roto

I entered the spring without much concern for Devers, who never showed any structural damage in his shoulders despite dealing with injuries in both that would ultimately cut his season short last September. He opted to skip surgery to focus on rest and rehabilitation, and as of February 24 … that seems to be where we still are. Which is concerning!

Devers has been limited to hitting off the Trajekt pitching machine and has thrown at less than 100% from third base, but it isn't clear when he'll be cleared to play in Cactus Leagues. I had assumed Devers would enter camp 100% past the shoulder injuries from 2024, but if they are still limiting him a month out from the start of the season, that feels notable. Not that I'm currently too concerned about Devers not being ready for the season – veterans generally don't need more than a couple of weeks of game action to get up to speed – but because of what it suggests about his chances of playing like himself in 2025 while avoiding further injury.

Devers played through the shoulder injuries for most of the season and was still terrific through the end of July, but things took a turn in the second half, and he finished with just a .244/.325/.402 line after the All-Star break. And it was clear the shoulders were an issue, as both his bat speed and arm strength in the field dropped in the second half of the season. Maybe he'll be fine in 2025 – again, when he had the shoulders tested at the end of last season, they showed no signs of structural damage. Maybe the Red Sox are just operating out of an overabundance of caution in bringing him along slow.

But I entered the spring treating Devers more or less as if there just wasn't much concern about the injury at all, and the seems like the wrong tack to have taken. He's still in that second tier at third base for me, but I've moved him to the bottom, below Austin Riley, Jazz Chisholm, and Manny Machado.

Sean Manaea, SP, Mets

New ranking: 291st in Roto

The Mets announced Tuesday that Manaea has suffered a strained right oblique, an injury that seems likely to land him on the IL to open the season. According to BaseballProspectus.com's Recovery Dashboard tool, pitchers miss an average of 47 days with oblique strains, which would put Manaea on a timetable to return around the second week of April, which wouldn't necessarily tank Manaea's value for the season.

If he returns without issue, of course. And that's where my concerns come in. Jhoan Duran and Paul Sewald both missed around that much time with oblique injuries early last season, and neither was quite as effective as we've gotten used to in their returns from the injuries. Both lost a bit of velocity and just generally struggled to generate strikeouts as well as they had the year before, leading to a 1.19 increase in ERA for Sewald and a 1.18 increase for Duran.

Every pitcher is different, of course, but Manaea's path back probably won't be easier because he's a starting pitcher. And oblique injuries are especially tricky, with a tendency to recur if you don't let them heal completely before returning to baseball activities. That's especially a concern in the spring, when a player may feel pressure to hurry back for the start of the season, potentially aggravating the injury or otherwise messing up their preparations for the season.

I liked the changes Manaea made in 2024, lowering his arm slot mid-season to emulate Chris Sale's release point, which fueled 3.09 ERA and 28.4% strikeout rate over his final 12 starts. But I also had some concerns about how sustainable it would be – did he dominate because he unlocked a new baseline level of performance, or because hitters just weren't used to the new look? Could he consistently throw strikes from the new arm slot? Would the league catch up with more looks? I was comfortable with him as a mid-round target despite those concerns, but with the injury, he's now more of a late-round flier for me.

Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles

New ranking: 350th in Roto

Nothing has been set in stone, but reading between the lines sure makes it sound like Mayo is on the outside looking in for the Orioles Opening Day roster. Jordan Westburg is locked into a spot in the everyday lineup, and he'll be spending the spring focusing on third base primarily, which seemingly takes that spot off the board for Mayo. And first base and DH are already filled by veterans Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O'Hearn, the former of whom is expected to enjoy a bounceback season with the Orioles moving their left field fences in.

I originally ranked Mayo around 250th overall, with the hope he could earn a starting spot this spring, and that's still possible. Injuries can happen, of course, as could trades – and that includes the possibility that Mayo himself could be moved somewhere that will have a spot waiting for him. He doesn't seem to have much left to prove in the minors after hitting .279/.376/.543 across 151 games at Triple-A, but the Orioles just haven't made clearing a spot for him a priority.

So, at least at the start of spring action, it looks like Jackson Holliday has the inside track to a starting job at second base. If he flops, then maybe the Orioles move Westburg back to the keystone and give Mayo a longer look at third. Mayo remains a viable bench stash with an Austin Riley-esque upside whenever he gets the chance to play everyday. But it just doesn't look like it's going to happen yet.