Biggest potential 2025 college football upsets: Ohio State, Georgia, Notre Dame among teams on upset watch
Those seeking parity during college football's 2025 season have come to the right place -- at least glancing at under-the-radar games with the potential of playoff-altering upsets. There's more than a dozen non-conference matchups early this fall that could move the needle nationally depending on the result before league title races commence in October.
Still a few months out from opening weekend, we've combed through the weekly slate this fall to try and select a few games with conditions ripe for surprises. Oklahoma's win over Alabama, Syracuse's triumph against Miami and Michigan's shocker against Ohio State last season were all defining moments down the stretch, with the Buckeyes being the only elite able to absorb a stunning setback.
Ahead of the new campaign, here's seven matchups that could spark upset alert conversations should the home teams prevail:
Syracuse vs. Tennessee -- Aug. 30One of two games inside Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium during opening weekend, the Vols opened as a 12.5-point favorite against the Orange, via FanDuel Sportsbook. Nearly two touchdowns feels like a bit much with Tennessee debuting a new offense led by UCLA transfer quarterback Joey Aguilar following the Nico Iamaleava saga, right? Syracuse added Notre Dame transfer signal caller Steve Angeli after spring camp and he'll be battling Rickie Collins in fall camp. This one should be more competitive than the opening line suggests.
Illinois at Duke -- Sept. 6Could the Fighting Illini fold under lofty expectations? Whispers of a dark-horse run at the top of the Big Ten are growing louder for a team returning most of their starters after a breakthrough season under Bret Bielema. Meanwhile, Duke refaced its offense with Tulane transfer quarterback Darian Mensah after going 9-4 in Year 1 with Manny Diaz at the helm. The Blue Devils' secondary returns a couple projected early-rounders and Duke upset one elite last season at home after taking down Clemson. Be careful here, Illinois.
Arizona State at Mississippi State -- Sept. 6One of the preseason favorites in the Big 12 after earning a trip to the College Football Playoff last season, the Sun Devils finish a home-and-home with Mississippi State in Week 2. This is a dangerous game for Arizona State, considering it'll be the program's first Power 4 test without Cam Skattebo in the backfield. Jeff Lebby flipped his roster during the offseason with 33 transfers and outside expectations are minimal after the Bulldogs' 2-10 faceplant in 2024.
Notre Dame at Arkansas -- Sept. 27Facing a make-or-break season with the Razorbacks, Sam Pittman has an opportunity to extend the runway a bit if Arkansas takes out Notre Dame at the end of the opening month. These two are not familiar with one another since they've never played, but the Fighting Irish are more talented at most positions and have their sights set on another playoff appearance. Good news for the Razorbacks? Notre Dame will have already played nationally-ranked Miami and Texas A&M early, so the visitors could come in limping a bit.
Ohio State at Washington -- Sept. 27The Buckeyes play four teams we're expecting to be ranked inside the top 25, but the Huskies are not one of them. And that's part of what makes this one so enticing. Virtually unbeatable under Ryan Day against unranked competition, Ohio State's lone loss under that scenario came last season against Michigan. Prior to that, a 49-20 setback at Purdue during the 2018 campaign was the last time the Buckeyes dropped a Big Ten contest to a team outside of the top 25. Husky Stadium will be rocking when Ohio State rolls in and quarterback Demond Williams Jr. will test a new-look defense under Matt Patricia.
Georgia at Auburn -- Oct. 11Sandwiched between home games with Kentucky and Ole Miss, the reigning SEC champions go to the Plains in mid-October in hopes of continuing their recent dominance in the rivalry series. For Hugh Freeze, this home game is as big as they come. Georgia has won eight straight against Auburn dating back to a victory in the 2017 SEC Championship. The Tigers upended the Bulldogs a few weeks prior during the regular season, but that's the program's last win over Kirby Smart.
LSU at Vanderbilt -- Oct. 18Diego Pavia and the Commodores aren't sneaking up on any teams in the SEC following last year's rise, but they certainly have the firepower to thwart another top-10 opponent in Nashville if all goes according to plan this fall for Clark Lea and Co. Not projected to get back to bowl season in 2025, Vanderbilt still has countless doubters while LSU should have its best team under Brian Kelly. Vanderbilt upset top-ranked Alabama last season after an open date and gets the same opportunity here against the Tigers.
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