College basketball hot seat rankings: Where 17 underwhelming coaches stand as high-major carousel picks up
College basketball's 2025 coaching carousel has been spinning since 2024, and it's only speeding up as the end of the regular season rapidly approaches. While last year's tally of 14 high-major job changes will be a high bar to clear, the early returns suggest it's possible as programs seek to establish their footing amid conference realignment and the dawn of revenue-sharing in college sports.
Just look at the ACC, for example. Virginia coach Tony Bennett announced his retirement in October, leaving the UVa job in the hands of interim coach Ron Sanchez. Then, less than two months into the season, Miami's Jim Larranaga abruptly resigned. Florida State legend Leonard Hamilton is also retiring at season's end, leaving at least three openings in the conference.
Elsewhere, Utah announced the firing of Craig Smith on Monday, charting a new course for the direction of a program that hasn't been to the NCAA Tournament since 2016. At least one school with claim to blue blood status is also riding this coaching carousel, as Indiana seeks a replacement for Mike Woodson.
Another could join the fray if Villanova opts to move on from third-year coach Kyle Neptune, who appears to be on the hottest seat in the Big East
As the carousel continues heating up, our team huddled up to take the temperature on college basketball coaches who are feeling the heat.
2025 Hot Seat Rankings tiersUncomfortably hotRecord: 51-45 in three seasons, 16-12 in 2024-25
It made sense to stay within the so-called Villanova family and hire Kyle Neptune to replace Jay Wright when the Hall of Famer retired following the 2021-22 season — but it obviously hasn't gone well. Neptune inherited a program coming off of a Final Four and a roster talented enough to be ranked 16th in the preseason AP poll. That team missed the NCAA Tournament. Then his second team missed the NCAA Tournament. And now his third team, this season's team, is also projected to miss the NCAA Tournament.
Simply put, that's not good enough at a place like Villanova and why Neptune returning seems improbable. -- Gary Parrish
Record: 73-53 in four seasons, 15-13 in 2024-25
This is his fourth season with the Runnin' Rebels, none of which have featured an NCAA Tournament-level team. There were murmurings a year ago around this time that the UNLV job might come open, but Kruger got the team to a 21-13 finish in what was his best season to date. The team has taken a step back this season, and in talking to industry sources, the expectation is that this job will come open in mid-March.
The Rebels are elbowing with in-state rival Nevada for sixth place in the Mountain West. This program will never return to its heyday under Jerry Tarkanian, but it has to be more relevant than what it's become over the past 10-plus years; UNLV last danced in 2013 under Dave Rice. If/when a change is made next month, it will mark the seventh coach to oversee the program since 2011 — and that doesn't include Chris Beard's one-week stint in Vegas in 2016 before he bolted for Texas Tech. – Matt Norlander
Record: 59-32 in three seasons (includes interim stint), 16-11 in 2024-25
If you're checking in on a college hoops hot seat story before March, you likely know the situation here. Terry was the interim coach from early December 2022 until the end of Texas' run in the 2023 Tournament. He was thrust into that position after Chris Beard's suspension and subsequent firing that season tied to a domestic violence incident. Terry was considered a long shot to retain the job, but he guided UT to the Elite Eight as a 2-seed in 2023. Thus, Longhorns AD Chris Del Conte had little choice but to keep him.
Now? It might take another huge NCAA tourney run for Terry to hold on, according to my sources. Texas is unquestionably regarded as a top-10 job in men's college basketball. Terry is 59-32. The Longhorns have gone from 11-2 to 16-11 in the past eight weeks, falling out of our most recent bracket forecast. It's getting hot in Austin.
Del Conte knows he can bring in a big name and he's anxious to make Texas matter in a big way, especially with a shiny new home arena that hasn't had many high-profile games since opening in 2022. – Norlander
Not his faultRecord: 13-14 in one season
Tony Bennett's abrupt resignation just before the start of the season resulted in Virginia understandably naming Sanchez as its interim coach. But he was always going to have to kill it to be seriously considered as the permanent replacement — and he definitely hasn't done that.
This program that won the 2019 Tournament and six ACC regular-season titles in a 10-year span under Bennett is now 13-14 overall, 6-10 in the ACC and ranked 102nd in the NET. So the Virginia job is opening and should be one of the biggest and best available — perhaps right behind Indiana. -- Parrish
Feeling the heatRecord: 168-145 in 10 seasons, 13-14 in 2024-25
Hurley signed an extension through 2025-26 in March after a 14-18 season and then landed a commitment from five-star prospect Jayden Quaintance in April. An 8-1 start that included neutral-site wins over New Mexico and Saint Mary's further suggested the Sun Devils had momentum. But Year 1 in the Big 12 has been unkind to ASU, which harbors no at-large NCAA Tournament hopes.
Arizona State hasn't been past the first round of the NCAA Tournament under Hurley and is now careening toward its fourth sub .500 record of the past five years. A fresh infusion of youthful energy with Kenny Dillingham has done wonders for Arizona State football. With overdue renovations on the way to Desert Financial Arena and a relatively low-cost buyout on Hurley, a fresh start could be prudent as ASU seeks to establish itself in the Big 12. – David Cobb
Record: 162-116 in nine seasons, 14-13 in 2024-25
UCF's football success and large media market drove it to the Big 12. Now that the Knights are here, they must regularly ask themselves how committed they are to competing in a brutal basketball league.
Relative to the program's historical standards, Dawkins has done fine over his nine-year tenure, and he was extended in June through the 2026-27 season. But February has been a slog for the Knights, who have been to just one NCAA Tournament in Dawkins' tenure. Drumming up the support to bankroll a competitive 2025-26 roster might be tough if UCF doesn't finish with some dignity during a manageable closing stretch. – Cobb
Sunset calling?Record: 295-204 in 15 seasons, 15-13 in 2024-25
Change just feels inevitable in Iowa City. Fran McCaffery has made Iowa competent but interest and attendance has waned in Year 15. Iowa is slated to miss the NCAA Tournament for the second year in a row, and the Hawkeyes' NIL budget is not close to some of its Big Ten rivals which could explain some of the struggles to hit on top targets in the portal. Plus, all of McCaffery's sons have charted to Butler in some capacity or another, so those family ties to Iowa have disappeared.
Retirement could also be in play for McCaffery, 65. It wouldn't be a surprise to anyone in the coaching fraternity if a new face is prowling the sidelines in Iowa City next winter. -- Isaac Trotter
Record: 309-200 in 15 seasons, 11-17 in 2024-25
Colorado has one of the lowest NIL budgets among the high-major ranks and the roster represents that. Two of Colorado's top free-agent additions came from the NAIA and Division II ranks. That's a recipe for disaster in a top-heavy Big 12 where basketball is king.
Colorado sits just 11-17 overall and 2-15 in conference play. Colorado is in danger of finishing outside the top-100 on kenpom.com for just the second time in Tad Boyle's 15-year run. A boosted budget in the revenue-sharing era should help, but Boyle is not competing in an even playing field right now. Retirement watch could be in play, though.— Trotter
Record: 69-55 in three seasons, 13-14 in 2024-25
Everyone who voted in our hot seat ballot voted Matta's seat moderately warm but not scorching. The truth here is that the Big East is a booger to keep pace with thanks to so many proud programs with immense resources and coaching stars. So Butler, lower on the ladder than the likes of UConn, St. John's, Marquette, Creighton, etc., is doing about as well as you might expect given the circumstances.
Still, one winning season in three years won't cut it moving forward. Matta is a good coach, but the retread hire engendered more nostalgia than optimism, if anything. Maybe the school makes a move here, but one more year – with a chance to see a promising recruiting class come through – seems like the most likely path right now. – Boone
Situations to monitorRecord: 71-55 in four seasons, 17-10 in 2024-25
It's hard to say definitively that Moser's seat is scorching but it'd make plenty of sense if OU were to move on him for a fresh start with a new coach this offseason. The Sooners are 70-55 under his watch since he took over in 2021, but just 23-44 in league play, with a recurring theme that includes late-season swoons. This year's late-season struggles are perhaps the most painful. OU began the season 13-0 but is 4-10 since, with all the losses coming in the Sooners' debut SEC campaign.
OU has bigger issues beneath the surface – its arena is outdated, fan support has waned and the investment in the program is below what is to be expected of a proud Big 12 program, much less an SEC program. But Moser might make for an easy scapegoat as the Sooners try to get splashy early in their time with the SEC. It's clear the formula they've got right now is not working, and stumbling to the finish line each season is wearing on OU supporters. If he gets another year, he won't be sitting at all next season because of how toasty his chair will be. – Boone
Record: 55-68 in four seasons, 14-14 in 2024-25
Johnson's seat may still be hot, but to his credit, it has cooled off a bit over the last few weeks because of how well his Minnesota squad is playing. The Golden Gophers are 6-5 in their last 11 games, with wins over Michigan, Iowa, UCLA and Oregon sprinkled in between.
Though Minnesota will almost assuredly miss the NCAA Tournament again, the sensible alternative to firing Johnson could be to arm him with more competitive NIL resources. – Salerno
Record: 61-68 in four seasons, 12-15 in 2024-25
After going 20-16 last season and reaching the NIT, BC was pilloried in the portal and has subsequently regressed to ACC bottom-feeder status. How much of that is Grant's fault, and how much of it is due to the status of the program's NIL budget is a question that BC's administration would have to honestly evaluate before considering a move.
Given that Grant has a deal running through 2028-29 and is leading a program that hasn't reached the NCAA Tournament since 2009, a change here might be hard to justify. It took 6.5 years for Grant's predecessor, Jim Christian, to get fired, and Grant has done better than Christian in the win column during his four seasons. – Cobb
Record: 31-28 in two seasons, 11-16 in 2024-25
Syracuse wasn't expected to be an NCAA Tournament team, but there was hope the program could make some strides this season. That hasn't happened. The Orange recently blew a 16-point first-half lead and have bad losses on their résumé to Pitt, Miami, Stanford and Florida State. Syracuse went 20-12 (11-9 ACC play) in the first season post-Jim Boeheim but won't sniff that mark this season.
There is hope that Syracuse could turn it around and make a jump during the 2025-26 season, assuming the program can maintain its incoming recruiting class led by four-star guard Kiyan Anthony, the son of NBA legend and one of the greatest players in Syracuse program history, Carmelo Anthony. Firing Autry now runs the risk of Anthony and/or fellow incoming four-star forward Sadiq White Jr. backing off their respective pledges to Syracuse. It may be too early to let Autry go, but the returns this season aren't up to the standard Boeheim built. – Salerno
Safe...right?Record: 104-82 in six seasons, 12-16 in 2024-25
Mike Young has gone .500 or better in every year but 2024-25 and is coming off a three-season run in which he led the Hokies to an average of 20.3 wins per season. In a down year for the ACC, Virginia Tech's bottom-half-of-the-league finish is particularly frustrating. But the dismissal of star transfer Hysier Miller just before the season side-swiped what has otherwise been a transfer class full of impactful additions for a coach who over the years has shown a good eye for evaluating and projecting potential talents out of the portal.
Young will have to hit on some players through that avenue once again to bounce back next season to complement two incoming four-star high school talents. But he has done well enough on the whole to deserve at least one more season to get things back on the rails. – Boone
Record: 80-54 in four seasons, 17-11 in 2024-25
There's minimal chance Miller's gone after this season. The Bearcats are back in the bubble picture after Tuesday night's win over Baylor, plus the buyout situation is north of $9 million. Just can't see a change here. No question that UC's been a letdown since Miller was hired in 2021, but he'll enter next season on the hot seat, particularly if Cincinnati doesn't rally to make the tournament this year. If that's the case, he'll need to make the Big Dance in 2026 in order to hold on to the job. I'd put him at 97% safe over the next two months. — Norlander
Record: 150-110 in eight seasons, 11-16 in 2024-25
The prevailing thought this time last year, when Keatts seemed on his way to missing the NCAA Tournament for the fourth time since 2018, was that NC State was probably weeks away from making a coaching change — but you know what happened next. The Wolfpack won five straight games to win the ACC Tournament and secure an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, then won four more games to advance to the Final Four. It was an incredible run that triggered a two-year contract extension for Keatts, who is now signed through the end of the 2029-30 season.
So, barring a surprise, Keatts will probably get at least one more year even though his team is just 11-16. But, next season, he'll likely need to bounce back into the NCAA Tournament to ensure a return for the 2026-27 campaign. -- Parrish
General manager to the rescue!Record: 96-42 in four seasons, 18-11 in 2024-25
Industry sources expect Hubert Davis to get another year at North Carolina, especially since he inked a contract extension through 2030 in December. But the Tar Heels are walking on thin ice for an at-large bid. This would be just the second time since the 1970s that UNC has missed the Big Dance multiple times in a three-year window. UNC's transfer portal whiffs in the 2024 cycle have been well-documented, but Davis has another top-10 recruiting class inked in 2025.
Extreme Makeover: Roster Edition seems much more likely than a coaching change, especially amid the addition of respected NBA agent Jim Tanner as general manager in the basketball office. — Trotter
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