College football's best coaching jobs: Which programs are set up to compete for future national titles?
Remember when all it took to win a national championship in college football was an elite roster, a hot-shot coach and a favorable schedule? The haves and have-nots were clearly defined, and success hinged on player development and maintaining depth -- especially for blue bloods looking to keep the train on the tracks.
The ingredients that define the nation's best jobs haven't necessarily changed, but this summer's landmark revenue-sharing decision could spark a parity boom unlike anything the sport has seen. More programs may soon challenge for seats at a historically exclusive table.
College football's top jobs aren't supposed to change year to year, but sweeping changes to recruiting -- including the transfer portal and NIL-related contracts -- have intensified the conversation around which programs are making the right moves for long-term success.
Five factors were used in determining a cumulative score for the nation's featured jobs:
- Recruiting (High school, transfer portal)
- Resources (NIL, donors, TV revenue)
- Talent pool (geographical significance)
- Administrative edge
- Executable expectations
Each of these categories was assigned a subjective number grade 1-5 with '1' being the lowest classification and '5' being elite.
Diamond tier (4.4+)Texas (4.8), LSU (4.8), Ohio State (4.6), Georgia (4.4), Alabama (4.4)
Four of these five programs have combined to win eight of college football's 10 national championships during the playoff era. And they're all positioned for immense success over the next several years. Texas is the only program to reach the playoff semifinal in consecutive years And with rosters costing more than ever to build, the Longhorns are well-suited to thrive.
Surprised to see LSU near the top of the list? You shouldn't be. The past three coaches in Baton Rouge have each collected national titles and Brian Kelly may get that opportunity in 2025 -- or else. The money at LSU have put Kelly in a win-or-bust situation. The Tigers have the nation's No. 1 portal signing class, a deep coaching staff and no excuses should the team fall short. LSU is one of the few programs where you're fired if you don't sniff the national title early in your tenure.
Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork said before the 2024 season his Buckeyes distributed record amounts of NIL to athletes over the previous year. And with one of the nation's most expensive rosters, Ohio State ran roughshod through the expanded playoff and captured a national title. Bjork understands what it takes to assemble a championship-caliber two-deep and Ryan Day has proven he can shoulder heavy scrutiny. Ohio State is the Big Ten's best job.
There's no coincidence that three of the five coaches leading these programs currently rank in the top 1% of the sport when it comes to wins over ranked competition. That speaks to the "executable expectations" side of the equation here and how much resources and talent go into winning big in college football.
Kirby Smart has managed to accomplish what Mark Richt could not at Georgia. He has taken the program to the top of the pedestal. He's done it the old-fashioned way -- by stocking the line of scrimmage with the best players in the country. With an expansive recruiting budget, the Bulldogs will continue to bring in top talent annually even if Smart prefers the heftiest NIL checks go to proven players.
Alabama brings up the rear of the diamond tier. Spoiled by the greatness associated with on-field results over the last decade and change, Alabama fans should temper expectations just a bit under Kalen DeBoer. Expecting annual playoff appearances in the expansion era is one thing, but judging success by national championships is another.
Notre Dame (4.2), Michigan (4), Oregon (4), USC (4), Florida (4), Oklahoma (4), Penn State (4), Texas A&M (4)
Marcus Freeman proved last season that Notre Dame is built for success in the expanded College Football Playoff. Despite being the only independent program among the sport's top-tier jobs -- and not quite matching the TV revenue of its SEC and Big Ten counterparts -- resources aren't a concern in South Bend. Freeman has followed Brian Kelly's national recruiting model, and the Irish should remain an annual playoff threat given how their schedule typically compares to their roster strength.
No argument here if someone wants to put Michigan in the diamond tier of college football jobs. But the verdict is still pending in the sign-stealing investigation, and the potential ramifications for Sherrone Moore and his staff over the coming years could be significant. Jim Harbaugh's national championship run in 2023 — the program's first title in 26 years — set sky-high expectations for Moore, much like the almost unreachable bar Alabama fans have set for Kalen DeBoer after Nick Saban's retirement.
It certainly feels like Oregon is knocking on the door under Dan Lanning, The Ducks went unbeaten in their first Big Ten season before a tough playoff matchup led to an early exit in the Rose Bowl. Oregon's recruiting reach has expanded under Lanning, and staff continuity has helped accelerate the program's upward trajectory.
USC is finally addressing its long-overdue facilities upgrade. The Trojans broke ground in November on the $200 million Bloom Performance Center, a major investment in the program's infrastructure. Lincoln Riley -- and whoever eventually follows him -- must focus on keeping California-based five-stars in state, especially at quarterback. USC should be able to pick its signal caller from the West Coast every cycle, but that's not happening right now.
Texas A&M paid Jimbo Fisher a record-setting buyout to walk away because an eight-win average wasn't good enough — even with his BCS title pedigree from Florida State. Expectations are sky-high for a program that has posted just four winning SEC records since joining the league in 2012. Facilities are elite, the Aggies sit in a talent-rich recruiting region, and resources are limitless. It's time to win — big.
Clemson (3.8), Tennessee (3.8), Miami (3.8), Florida State (3.6), Auburn (3.6)
What do these five programs all have in common? Each has won at least one national championship, proving it can be done. That history is part of the battle when climbing the mountain -- knowing that past success could be channeled again down the road.
Whenever Clemson inevitably leaves the ACC and lands in one of the two super conferences during the next round of realignment, the Tigers will join the financial ranks of other elites thanks to an expected revenue boost. But whenever Dabo Swinney's tenure ends, his successor will face a massive challenge trying to replicate that level of success. National parity has increased, and recruiting looks far different than it did during Clemson's title runs.
Josh Heupel has restored Tennessee to national relevance following the program's first College Football Playoff appearance, but is there a ceiling in Knoxville? The Vols are still chasing the SEC's top tier and constantly battling Alabama, Georgia, Florida and LSU for the same talent.
Miami, Florida State and Auburn have adapted to the modern era with an aggressive focus on the transfer portal. All three programs are building rosters year to year, with limited time for player development. Long term, it may benefit the Hurricanes and Seminoles to return to basics — however that may look — and win recruiting battles within Florida, rather than consistently entering bidding wars in the portal.
At Auburn, the coach who follows Hugh Freeze will go only as far as the boosters allow. It may not be the most difficult job in the SEC, but expectations are borderline unrealistic. Like most perennial top-20 programs, Auburn has a short leash when there's little early return on investment -- especially at a place that's already reached the mountaintop.
cbssports
