Is the under the play to make in Texas-Ohio State?

The Texas Longhorns and Ohio State Buckeyes open the 2025 season with one of the most anticipated matchups of the year. Both teams enter with College Football Playoff aspirations, but both face significant changes with new quarterbacks, rebuilt lines and, for Ohio State, an overhauled coaching staff.

Based on how these rosters match up, here's a look at how it could play out.

Texas Longhorns vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Saturday, noon ET, Fox

Opening Line: Ohio State; -1.5, O/U 47.5 Money line: Texas (Even), Ohio State (-120) Over/Under: 47.5 (O -115, U 105)

Why Texas can win

Arch Manning has been waiting for this moment. After two seasons behind Quinn Ewers, the Manning era officially begins, and he steps into a Steve Sarkisian offense with plenty of terrific options.

Texas finished 13th in passing offense last season but lost its top three targets in receiving yards. Depth becomes critical with Ryan Wingo and DeAndre Moore Jr. returning and Stanford transfer Emmett Mosley V joining the mix. If Manning settles in quickly, this passing attack has the potential to test any defense.

The running game adds balance with Quintrevion Wisner, who quietly rushed for 1,064 yards and caught 44 passes last season. His versatility gives Sarkisian options to attack Ohio State's aggressive fronts and keep drives alive.

Defensively, Texas might hold the bigger edge. The front seven has the speed and power to control the game. Linebackers Colin Simmons and Anthony Hill Jr. combined for 17 sacks in 2024 and now face an Ohio State offensive line still adjusting under new line coach Tyler Bowen. With the Buckeyes starting freshman Julian Sayin at quarterback, Texas' pass rush could force him into early mistakes.

Texas also benefits from continuity. While Ohio State breaks in a new offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator and run game coordinator, Sarkisian returns with his system intact. That stability matters in Week 1. New Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia brings an NFL approach, but this is his first college game since 2003, and communication could take time to click.

Why Ohio State can win

The defending national champions have undergone major changes, but the talent remains elite. It starts on defense. Ohio State finished first in total defense last season, first in red zone touchdowns allowed with just 16 given up, and second in pass yards allowed.

Safety Caleb Downs, considered to be one of the best defensive players in the country, anchors the secondary. He will play a key role in limiting Texas' vertical passing game, supported by Davison Igbinosun and Jermaine Mathews Jr., giving Ohio State one of the strongest coverage units in college football.

Up front, linebackers Sonny Styles and C.J. Hicks lead a defense that ranked fourth nationally in sacks last year. Patricia's scheme adds NFL-style disguise packages, and against a Texas offensive line breaking in four new starters, the Buckeyes' pass rush could dictate the tempo.

Offensively, Ohio State enters a transition period without Chip Kelly, but new coordinator Brian Hartline still has explosive talent. Jeremiah Smith shattered Cris Carter's freshman records in 2024 and could emerge as one of the nation's top receivers.

Ohio Stadium remains a major factor. Ohio State is 27-3 at home since 2021, and while just 18-11-1 against the spread in that span, the outright edge is significant. What could help: Texas ranked just 54th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage last season, and if the Buckeyes force field goals, they control the game.

Betting prediction: UNDER 47.5

On paper, this matchup screams defense. Both teams bring elite pass rushers, NFL-caliber secondaries and unsettled offensive lines. Add in two first-time starting quarterbacks and new systems on both sides, and this sets up as a low-scoring opener.

Last season, Ohio State games went under in six of their last eight, and they led the nation in fewest red zone touchdowns allowed. Texas has struggled to finish drives even against weaker defenses, and those issues could be magnified against the Buckeyes' top-ranked unit (again).

Expect a slower pace early as both teams feel each other out. Ohio State's front can force Texas into long-yardage situations, while Texas' front seven is capable of disrupting Sayin's rhythm and pushing Hartline toward a conservative game plan. Sustained drives, stalled possessions and field goals are far more likely than shootouts.

The game total is juiced (-115) to the OVER, so you may be able to grab a better number come kickoff. It is also worth considering the first-quarter under 10. The first 15 minutes set up as a feeling-out period.