MLB breakout candidates: One player from all 30 teams who could make a surprise impact in 2025
It's that time of the year again, when hope springs eternal and all of a baseball season's possibilities seem within reach. It's time, then, to harness that unchecked optimism and divine which players are bound for bigger and better things this season.
Below, I've selected one player for each MLB club who I believe could be in line for a "breakout" season. The quotations are necessary because let's face it: there are levels to this. One player's breakout effort might entail making the All-Star Game; another's might be solidifying their place on the 26-player roster. By including a player in this piece, I'm stating only that I expect them to perform better than they have before.
Before we get to my picks, I have a few other housekeeping items to address.
First, I've altered the usual format. Whereas I used to list players in alphabetical order of their team name, this time I'm doing that within three tiers that align with my confidence level in each pick. Here's a quick way to think of these tiers:
- High confidence: I would've picked these 10 players even if I didn't have a mandate to select one individual per team.
- Medium confidence: I may have picked some of these players regardless, but I don't feel as strongly about them.
- Low confidence: Hey, I had to pick someone from these teams.
Second, this is not your generic, predictable breakout players piece. You are not going to find players who are/were considered top prospects. (If you want that, check out my top-50 prospect list.) You are not going to find former Rookie of the Year Award recipients. You are not going to find players who have earned Most Valuable Player or Cy Young Award consideration. In my opinion, it would be a waste of your time and mine, as well as an insult to the spirit of the exercise, to include those kinds of players. So I don't.
Instead, this piece is tailored for the seamhead sickos. If that means my hit rate is a little lower than it would be otherwise, so be it; if I wanted to be right more often, I'd have passed on baseball analysis for meteorology.
Besides, I do OK in that respect, averaging around 10 to 12 correct calls a year. In the past, those hits have included the likes of Spencer Strider, Steven Kwan, Ketel Marte, Kyle Bradish, and Drew Rasmussen. Last year alone, I hit on Jordan Westburg (an All-Star), Justin Martínez, Austin Wells (third-place Rookie of the Year finisher), Josh H. Smith (Silver Slugger winner), and Jeremiah Estrada.
Who will join those successes this year? Let's find out.
High confidenceRays: LHP Mason Montgomery
After years spent hoping Montgomery's command would improve enough for him to function as a starter, the Rays accepted the inevitable last summer and shifted him to the bullpen. I think Montgomery has the talent to still make an impact. (Ditto for Hunter Bigge, an underappreciated part of the Isaac Paredes return.) He has two good offerings, a mid-90s fastball and a slider that plays up in relief. Montgomery's fastball, the key to his game, thrives becase of both its innate life (he generates more than 18 inches of induced vertical break) and the deception gained from his mechanics; not only does he pitch off a tall front side with some serious back leg hinging, he releases from a high slot and with crossfire action. That layering of shape and form creates a challenging optical illusion, particularly when he elevates up in and above the zone. If you want examples of how well this profile can work, check out Alex Vesia of the Dodgers and Erik Sabrowski of the Guardians. Or you can just wait and see what Montgomery brings to the table this year.
Yankees: RHP Fernando Cruz
Cruz is a holdover from last year's list. While it's generally a bad sign when a player repeats, I'm justifying his selection here (over, say, infielder Oswaldo Cabrera) because I think the change of scenery will help him flourish. I have to imagine the Yankees are going to have Cruz ditch his ineffective cutter, the pitch responsible for nine of his 15 home runs allowed the last two seasons. Simultaneously, I expect Cruz to ramp up the usage of his splitter, in the spirit of how the Yankees had Tommy Kahnle spam his changeup. (Said splitter has held opponents to a .353 OPS over the last two years.) Should those tweaks occur, Cruz could emerge as a high-leverage weapon for Aaron Boone and the defending American League champs.
Twins: RHP Zebby Matthews
The last two springs have seen me pick Louie Varland as Minnesota's breakout player. Both times, I reasoned that his sky-high home run rate had to regress to the mean. It felt like easy money. And, like most easy money schemes, it didn't work out. Nevertheless, this year I'm applying the same logic to a different pitcher. I refuse to believe Matthews, armed with a great slider and a strikeout rate north of 10 per nine across four levels last year, will keep surrendering 2.63 home runs per nine innings. If he does, then it might be time a closer look at what's going on in Minnesota.
Astros: INF Shay Whitcomb
Whitcomb took a marked step forward last season in his second run at Triple-A. He improved both his walk and strikeout rates (dicing the latter from 31.1% to 19.8%), and he did so while boosting his slugging. His gains appeared legitimate under the hood, with his quality of approach and contact measures both swinging in the right direction. On those grounds alone, I think Whitcomb would merit inclusion. But don't sleep on another factor working in his favor: Houston's ballpark -- specifically, the Crawford Boxes in left. Whitcomb is a righty who excels at pulling the ball in the air, increasing the possibility that his numbers will benefit from his surroundings. The Astros don't have an obvious everyday role available for him at this time, but I can envision him receiving enough burn from a super-utility role to justify the selection.
Pirates: 2B/OF Nick Yorke
The Pirates obtained Yorke in July as part of the challenge trade that sent right-hander Quinn Priester to Boston. He auditioned everywhere on the diamond for his new organization, save for first base and the battery positions, before receiving a cameo to close out the year. Wherever the Pirates deploy Yorke, I think his best position will remain in the batter's box. He's a well-rounded hitter with a feel for contact and the zone alike, resulting in a 91 mph average exit velocity last season to go with his solid walk and strikeout rates. Yorke has more raw strength than his modest home run totals indicate, though he willingly trades slugging for average by employing an opposite-field approach. A fully actualized Yorke should be able to usurp Gonzales as both the Pirates' starting second baseman and their designated Nick.
Mets: RHP Justin Hagenman
Hagenman has previously spent time with the Dodgers and Red Sox organizations without receiving The Call. I think his time is coming, in part because the Mets rushed to give him a split contract early in the winter. Given New York's financial might, I don't think they would have made Hagenman a priority if they didn't believe in his chances of making a real contribution in 2025. To be clear: I lack illusions of Hagenman becoming a high-leverage arm. I do, however, believe his extreme release point (he features crossfire action and a low slot) and his high-quality slider should enable him to terrorize right-handed batters. That ought to give Hagenman a chance to occupy a comfortable spot somewhere in the middle innings for manager Carlos Mendoza.
Dodgers: RHP Edgardo Henriquez
Henriquez is presumably the only player in the league with more career innings pitched in the postseason than in the regular season. The Dodgers hastened his arrival last year, fast-tracking him to partake in their run to the World Series. Henriquez has an electric arsenal, complete with an upper-90s heater and a cutter/slider that keeps the opposition honest. He's dealt with his share of durability woes, meaning the Dodgers have zero incentive to stash him in the minors in deference to the numbers game. That might be for the best anyway, because Henriquez has the goods to mature into a high-leverage arm.
Cubs: RHP Nate Pearson
Pearson, who turned 28 last August, used to be a frontline starting pitcher prospect. It's fair to conclude his career hasn't gone according to plan in the years since: he's compiled an ERA+ over 100 just once to date in the big leagues, and that was as part of a season in which he logged 15 innings. Prospects really will break your heart, man. Nevertheless, I could see the upcoming season serving as a turnaround point in his career. Pearson has always had a lively arsenal, but he threw significantly more strikes last season upon joining the Cubs and changing his placement on the rubber. Will those gains stick? We'll find out soon enough. If the answer is "yes," then Pearson could find himself working high-leverage innings before the summer rolls around.
Rockies: RHP Seth Halvorsen
Choosing a Rockies pitcher to break out is a silly thing to do -- Colorado saw just three of their eight relievers with 30-plus appearances last season clear a 100 ERA+ -- but sometimes you have to live dangerously to live at all. Halvorsen's fastballs (each clocked in around 100 mph on average), splitter, and slider collectively serve as his gauntlets and greaves against the fearsome thin air at Coors Field. None of his pitches go slower on average than the upper 80s, and he's reliably posted ground-ball percentages between 45% and 50%. Were he with any other team, there'd be more interest and, dare I write, more excitement about him. As it is, Halvorsen may need to bring it in road games to validate this choice.
Brewers: 2B/3B Caleb Durbin
Durbin was obtained from the Yankees as part of the trade that also netted Nestor Cortes and sent Devin Williams packing. I'm banking on him getting a real opportunity this spring, and on him then maxing out his production thanks to an extreme pull-happy approach. Here's more of what I wrote of him at the time of the deal: "If you're the Brewers front office, you may feel like you just ordered Isaac Paredes off Temu. There is, of course, a real risk that Durbin's game doesn't port against big-league pitching. In that case, he's not going to be of much use since a below-average arm limits his defensive utility. One thing is for sure: playing home games at American Family Field, the sixth-friendliest home-run environment for righties, won't hurt his chances of carving out some kind of role in the coming years."
Medium confidenceTigers: RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long
A carryover from last year's list, Gipson-Long didn't pitch in 2024 after requiring elbow surgery to install an internal brace. He's unlikely to resurface until sometime over the summer, and his path to a rotation spot is more crowded than it was when I chose him a year ago. Still, I like his broad arsenal (including a screwball-like changeup) and his deep release point, and I think the Tigers' creativity with their pitching staff bodes well for his chances of being deployed in a meaningful role whenever he is able to return.
Orioles: RHP Kade Strowd
In terms of pitch quality, Strowd is as blessed as anyone in the Orioles system. Last season in Triple-A, he had three distinct offerings post whiff rates of 35% or better: his mid-90s heater, his changeup, and his curveball. Alas, his well-below-average command has prevented him from making a single big-league appearance as he nears his 28th birthday. I'm not optimistic about Strowd figuring out how to throw more strikes; I do, nonetheless, think he has the stuff to navigate his self-inflicted traffic on the road to success -- sort of like Justin Martínez, a member of last year's breakout pick class.
Braves: RHP Amos Willingham
The Braves roster has a higher barrier to entry than most, making it difficult for non-top prospects to break through. The obvious areas of exception are the bench and the bullpen, which brings us to Willingham, a recent waiver claim from the Nationals. He made his big-league debut last summer, and I think he'll make more appearances this go around the sun. Willingham has an interesting three-pitch arsenal, fronted by a rising four-seamer that can touch into the upper-90s and a fierce slider. He also deploys a cutter as a bridge offering. I doubt he'll crack the Opening Day roster, but I do think the Braves will find him useful throughout the spring into summer -- and that he may latch on to a more permanent role before the fall.
Padres: OF Tirso Ornelas
It's possible A.J. Preller goes nuts before Opening Day, rearranging his roster through trades and free-agent signings and closing any avenue Ornelas has to steady big-league at-bats. For now, though, he appears in line for at least a platoon role. I think Ornelas might surprise people if he gets it. He spent last season in Triple-A, showing off average or better bat-to-ball skills and strength, particularly against right-handed hurlers. There are nits to pick with Ornelas: his approach is a little too chase-happy, he's not likely to provide oodles of secondary value, and so on. I could see Ornelas replicating what David Peralta provided the Padres last season -- and I don't mean that as an insult.
Royals: INF Nick Loftin
I continue to hold out hope for Loftin, a player I've liked since his days at Baylor. No matter, I can't begrudge anyone giving up the ghost after last season, when he hit .189/.282/.236 in the majors. To his credit, he continued to show good bat-to-ball and zone-management skills, as well as a good deal of defensive versatility; to his debt, he made minimal loud contact. I believe Loftin has more to offer (he walked as often as he struck out and hit 30% better than the league-average in Triple-A), but he's entering his age-26 season and will need to prove it sooner than later if he wants to avoid being viewed as a Quad-A talent.
Red Sox: RHP Luis Guerrero
Guerrero snuck into the majors late last season, delivering 10 shutout innings in mostly low-leverage situations. I think he'll see more burn and more success in 2025. He's an east-to-west pitcher, by which I mean there's little verticality to his game. Look at his pitch movement chart and you'll notice that almost everything rests above the x-axis. In that sense, Guerrero is a righty version of Tyler Alexander. The difference is that Guerrero has better stuff, complete with some secondaries (like his splitter and his slider) that coerced whiff rates of 40% or better overall. I suspect he might start the season in the minors, but I would be surprised if he goes the year without signing a lease in Boston.
Rangers: RHP Daniel Robert
Robert will celebrate his 31st birthday come August, making him the oldest players in this piece. I believe that age is only a number when it comes to relievers, and I think that Robert has a chance to work his way into Bruce Bochy's circle of trust. He has an outstanding track record of missing bats with an arsenal that's led by an above-average slider. He also successfully controlled the quality of contact he surrendered last season in Triple-A. The Rangers trotted him out there for four big-league appearances between July and September. I assume he'll get the opportunity for more this coming spring.
Cardinals: INF Thomas Saggese
A repeat pick. I thought Saggese would begin his ascent into a Logan Forsythe-like career last season. He did not. Instead he toiled at Triple-A for most of the season before getting a late (and forgettable) run in the majors to end the year. I'm sticking with Saggese because I think he's a better player than he showed. Although there's no chrome to his game, he theoretically has a well-rounded profile -- an average or better stick, some defensive versatility, and some heady baserunning. Sometimes this type just fails (remember Daniel Robertson?), but sometimes it results in a better big-league career than their prospect status suggested was likely. Here's hoping for the latter.
Locklear had a miserable introduction to the majors, striking out 20 times in 49 trips to the plate. I'm not too concerned about that statistic, but I will acknowledge there's ample downside risk here. That's because of Locklear's swing-and-miss tendencies, and also because he's a right-handed first baseman playing in a park that's notoriously tough on northpaws. If Locklear is going to succeed, it's going to be on the basis of two traits: his excellent swing decisions and his plus strength. The Mariners will enter the season with Luke Raley, Mitch Haniger, and Austin Shenton ahead of him on the depth chart. I have to imagine, be it due to injury or underperformance, that Locklear gets a prolonged look at some point.
Nationals: RHP Evan Reifert
Reifert, the fifth pick in last winter's Rule 5 Draft, has leveraged a high-grade slider into some silly strikeout rates throughout his professional career (he's punched out 14.9 batters for every nine innings he's logged). You can understand, then, why the Nationals will at least give him a chance to make their roster despite him having not yet appeared in a Triple-A contest. Provided Reifert's command woes don't flare up too badly -- hardly a given -- he could serve as this year's Ryan Fernandez or Justin Slaten.
Low confidenceGuardians: OF Johnathan Rodríguez
Rodríguez has immense bat speed, granting him not just pole-to-pole power and the ability to post a maximum exit velocity (116.8 mph) that would've ranked in the top 12 in the majors. He's also a demolisher of left-handed pitching, scorching southpaws to the tune of a 1.143 OPS in 2024. There's a reason you may not be familiar with his name: the rest of his game isn't as impressive. He's not a great fielder or baserunner and, in what serves as my biggest fear, he's extremely prone to swinging and missing (especially on breaking balls). It's reasonable to think Rodríguez could slug his way into at least a platoon role. Getting there will require him to trudge across a tricky pathway, one already navigated last season by a somewhat similar player in Jhonkensy Noel. It's possible Rodríguez gets blocked out from a real opportunity in Cleveland by more well-rounded and established outfielders. I'm giving him the nod anyway because there's a non-zero chance that he gets a look and emerges as this year's Big Christmas.
Marlins: 1B/3B/OF Eric Wagaman
The standard breakout profile this is not. Wagaman is a 27-year-old with 18 big-league appearances to his credit. He spent a chunk of last season in Double-A for the Angels after being selected from the Yankees in the minor-league portion of the Rule 5 Draft -- that's a discouraging assignment for any player his age, and a borderline insulting one in such a thin system. If the term "Quad-A player" is coming to mind … well, there's a fair chance. But Wagaman has a few things working in his favor, beginning with the Marlins' terrible projected lineup and unabated refusal to spend on marginal upgrades. At some point, if only to field 26 players, it seems likely that Wagaman will get an audition in Miami. When that opportunity comes, he has just enough bat-to-ball skills and strength to hit his way into a consistent role.
Diamondbacks: UTL Tim Tawa
This much is clear: Tawa can hit minor-league pitching. He generated a .279/.349/.519 slash line between Double- and Triple-A last season, recording a 95 mph or better exit velocity on nearly 60% of his batted balls against right-handed pitching. The reason you're unfamiliar with him is because he's not much of a defensive presence (the D-backs auditioned him at every position but catcher and pitcher last season), and because he's susceptible to whiffing, to the extent that it's possible his game doesn't port to the majors. I'm picking Tawa, warts and all, because there's no denying his strength and I think that, at some point, the Diamondbacks will give him a chance to prove he can do what he does against MLB arms.
Giants: OF Wade Meckler
You may recall that Meckler made his big-league debut in August 2023, just more than a year after he was drafted in the eighth round. That proved to be an overzealous assignment, as he recorded nearly twice as many strikeouts (25) as hits (13). He spent all of last season either in the minors or hurt, but I expect him to return to The Show this year -- and to do better. Meckler is a singles-and-walks lefty in the Sal Frelick mold. If the Giants fall out of the race by the deadline, I could see them trading Mike Yastrzemski and giving Meckler a chance to claim the job as his own.
White Sox: 3B Bryan Ramos
The White Sox employ more than their fair share of post-hype sleeper types, be it Miguel Vargas, Oscar Colás, Bobby Dalbec, or several others I'll omit for brevity's sake. Surely one of them will capitalize on an opportunity this year, right? I'm rolling with Ramos. He wasn't effective outside of Triple-A last season, but he has average strength and a good feel for the zone. He also has youth on his side, as he'll spend the entire upcoming campaign as a 23-year-old. For me, anyway, that makes it easier to overlook some of Ramos' flaws -- whether that's his uneven year or that he swings and misses within the zone more often than the average batter. He's slid down organizational prospect lists for reasons owed to him and not over the past year, but there's still a pathway here for him to enjoy a meaningful big-league career.
Blue Jays: INF Josh Kasevich
Kasevich is a min-max experiment at the plate. He makes an impressive amount of contact, connecting on more than 95% of his in-zone swings last season at the Triple-A level, yet his power production makes Jacob Wilson look Bondsian by comparison. Kasevich is too prone to hitting the ball on the ground and to the opposite field to optimize his slugging output -- think of him as Toronto's version of Brice Turang, albeit without the same wealth of secondary skills. The Blue Jays received more mileage from Ernie Clement (a somewhat similar player) in 2024 than they could have reasonably expected. If Clement stumbles this spring, Kasevich could be there to inherit his playing time and, perhaps, his surprising effectiveness.
Angels: RHP Ryan Zeferjahn
Zeferjahn was one of four players the Angels received at the deadline for veteran reliever Luis García. You'd be right to assume that Los Angeles prioritized quantity over quality -- an understandable strategy given their poor organizational depth and the low ceiling on García's trade value -- but that doesn't mean Zeferjahn is without his charms. He's capable of touching triple digits with his fastball, and both his cutter (his primary offering) and his sweeper grade as above-average offerings. Alas, his command can be described as "scattershot," making it possible that he walks his way out of the league. The Angels don't have many compelling breakout candidates, so I'm willing to let it ride on Zeferjahn all the same.
Clarke is a pure lottery ticket. He earns double-plus grades for his power and his speed, giving him some tantalizing perfect world outcomes. This is an imperfect world in so many ways, however, not the least of which includes Clarke's tendency to miss time on account of injuries. He's also prone to striking out, having fanned 30% of the time last year, limiting his overall offensive ceiling. Clarke hasn't yet appeared in Triple-A, but the Athletics have shown willingness to fast-track prospects as needed (e.g. Lawrence Butler, Jacob Wilson) and could justify doing the same here if he starts hot -- hey, he'd still be playing his home games in a Triple-A park.
Reds: RHP Connor Phillips
Phillips had a dismal 2024, issuing 60 walks in 78 ⅔ innings at Triple-A and failing to make even a single big-league appearance along the way. The book on him has been the same for a few years now. He has terrific stuff, but terrible command. I think the Reds have to be at or nearing the point where they surrender their dreams of him becoming a starting pitcher. If and when they move Phillips to the bullpen -- and I presume it'll occur sometime this season -- he could become an interesting relief arm.
You can only play the hand you're dealt in life. That's too bad for Stevenson, who would have been a big-league fixture in the early 2000s. Instead, he's served in an up-and-down capacity over the last three seasons while bouncing around the league. He's a lefty-hitting outfielder with contact and on-base chops, as well as at least average speed on the basepaths. Unfortunately, Stevenson offers minimal power, and he lacks enough defensive presence in center for a team to justify carrying him at all times. The Phillies roster will be tough for Stevenson to crack, but if he gets a chance I think he could single and walk and steal his way into a longer, arguably overdue audition at the big-league level.
cbssports
