Premier League point totals: Which teams that hope for big improvements will surprise or disappoint

The Premier League season is around the corner, with the reigning champions Liverpool hosting Bournemouth to kick things off on Friday. The duo will alone show how much has changed since the last campaign, as Liverpool could kick off the season with five new starters, and Bournemouth will take the pitch with an entirely new defense under Andoni Iraola. But those aren't the only changes happening around the league.

Goodison Park may no longer be Everton's home, but David Moyes is building a contender for the top half with new signings like Jack Grealish and Thierno Barry in the squad. Added to a strong defense, it's a group that could see the Toffees overperform their expected points total of 48 on the season. After being near the relegation zone for the past few seasons, there is reason to be optimistic, but looking around the league, who are some teams that could underperform or overperform their expected points total?

Brentford (43 points)

Losing Bryan Mbeumo and Christian Norgaard alone is a massive blow to Brentford's season outlook, but losing Thomas Frank is the biggest concern. A large portion of the staff followed him to Tottenham, and this season it will become clear if Frank was an institution or if Brentford are well-positioned for the long haul. Jordan Henderson is a shrewd addition to bring experience on the pitch, but it's unknown if that will be enough to see the Bees stay out of the relegation race.

Verdict: Underperform

Everton (48 points)

Even if Grealish can't get back to his best, his addition will take pressure off Dwight McNeil when it comes to powering the creativity in the Toffees' attack. But where Everton's real power lies is in their defense. Only three teams conceded fewer than Everton's 44 goals last campaign, and with no major departures this summer, they're well-positioned to run it back. This has been a pragmatic team under David Moyes, and without European soccer, they can pick up some upsets.

Verdict: Overperform

Wolverhampton (40 points)

In any other year, this Wolves team would be relegated. Losing Matheus Cunha to Manchester United and seeing 15 goals and six assists walk out the door without replacing them seems like a recipe for disaster. Jhon Arias was a breakout player at the Club World Cup, but at 27, it seems like a stretch that he'll end up pushing Wolves out of the relegation zone if their defense is as poor as it was last campaign.

Verdict: Underperform

Tottenham (59 points)

The attack needs more bodies, especially since they'll be without James Maddison for most of the season, but defensively, there's a lot to like about Frank's system. With each center back scoring against Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Super Cup, the rise of "Set Piece FC" is beginning, and if the defense also improves, it will raise Tottenham's floor. A team that beat themselves in previous seasons, consistency will go a long way for Tottenham, who are the most likely team to find a way to break into the top four, although fifth place feels like their ceiling for the coming campaign.

Verdict: Overperform

Newcastle United (64 points)

I don't know what this number is based on. The last time that the Magpies took part in the Champions League, they finished the season with only 60 points, finishing seventh. That roster in the 2023-24 season was arguably better than their current roster, especially if Alexander Isak departs. Eddie Howe has a tough job ahead, and it's a good thing that he won the EFL Cup last season because it's a long road to more silverware.

Verdict: Underperform

Sunderland (29 points)

This team might get relegated, but they aren't historically bad. Considering the other teams who will be around Sunderland in the bottom half, they'll have chances to get points off of their opposition to sail past the 29-point mark. Adding Granit Xhaka will give the midfield a focal point, while players such as Simon Adingra are perfectly fine Premier League gambles. The defense has plenty of questions, but if those get answered early, Regis Le Bris could perform a major escape job.

Verdict: Overperform

Crystal Palace (46-48 points)

If Palace keep Marc Guehi and Eberechi Eze, they could challenge for a European place next season, but if they lose even one of them, it could be a push away from relegation. Oliver Glasnar has done a great job steering this squad to where they are, but some of what happens next may be out of his control.

Verdict: Push

Leeds United (38 points)

Replacing Illian Meslier in the net alone is worth plus-five points in the table for Leeds this coming season. Add that with bolstering the defense and adding Sean Longstaff to the midfield, and Leeds are moving in the right direction for avoiding a return to the Championship. As always, there will be questions of where the goals will come from, but with an improved defense, that raises the level of what they can do.

Verdict: Overperform