Trotter's 10 Trends: Historic upset brewing in Big East DPOY race; which offenses are trending up, down
Let's dive right into this week's edition of Ten Trends. As usual, there's so much to get into.
1. An Oregon lineup that might need more burnIncredibly, Oregon erased a 14-point deficit with six-and-change to go to stun then-No. 11 Wisconsin, 77-73, in overtime in a Saturday game that quickly turned into one of the best of the season. Jackson Shelstad and Keeshawn Barthelemy hit some huge shots, but the defense from Kwame 'KJ' Evans Jr., TJ Bamba and Nate Bittle fueled the furious rally.
That trio might be the best three defenders on this roster. Bamba is a tough, physical wing defender who bothered Badgers star John Tonje for big chunks of the second half. Evans is a long, rangy forward with incredible ball skills. Bittle is one of the elite all-around defenders in the Big Ten. Oregon's defense completely tanks whenever he sits, another hint at his gargantuan impact.
For one reason or another, Dana Altman has been hesitant to play that trio together much, but Oregon was +12 in 6:39 with its best three defenders on the floor together.
The data hints that this might be a lineup that needs even more burn. Overall, Oregon has a sizzling +27 net rating with Bamba, Evans and Bittle in the game together. The Ducks' defense is a fortress, rating in the 99th percentile nationally, according to CBB Analytics. Let's reiterate. An Oregon defense that currently rates 47th nationally vaults into an elite tier when it plays its best three defenders together.
- Oregon was +8 in 6:48 against Michigan State with that trio in the game.
- +5 in 3:56 against Northwestern.
- +8 in 6:48 against Rutgers.
- +6 in 5:09 against Iowa.
- +12 in 6:39 against Wisconsin.
It just makes sense on tape. Bittle and Evans cover so much ground on both the perimeter and in the paint. Bamba is just a relentless on-ball defender when he wants to be, and he can navigate screens off the ball, too.
Oregon has the makings of a highly dangerous club in March Madness because it has proven it can beat the big dawgs and has a stud point guard (Shelstad) and a stud center (Bittle.) But this group has another level it can get to. The Bittle, Bamba and Evans trio may be the ace in Altman's pocket that he unleashes in the Big Dance.
2. Big East Defensive Player of the Year race trending toward a massive upsetCreighton star Ryan Kalkbrenner, aka the King of Verticality, has earned the Big East Defensive Player of the Year award in each of the last three seasons. It's a remarkable feat.
That streak might also end because St. John's forward Zuby Ejiofor is putting together one heck of a resume. The 6-9, 240-pound freight train is the secret sauce behind a St. John's defense that has been the best unit in the country since New Year's Day. Ejiofor plays the 5, but he's one of the most switchable defenders in the country — right up there next to Duke's Cooper Flagg, Tennessee's Jahmai Mashack and Mississippi State's Cameron Matthews. Ejiofor can move his puppies on the perimeter, all while providing real rim protection.
Team success also has to matter in this award. During league play, St. John's has the best defense by a country mile and the most valuable defender on this team is Ejiofor.
He'd have my vote (love you, Kalk).
St. John's travels to Butler Wednesday looking to clinch a share of the Big East crown (9 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network and streaming on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App) before hosting Seton Hall Saturday (2:15 p.m. ET, on CBS and streaming on CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App and Paramount+ with Showtime).
3. Pick-and-roll defenses to avoidTennessee ace defender Jahmai Mashack made it crystal clear that the basic pick-and-roll is still the hardest offensive play to stop. So which defenses have been the best at it this year?
It's no surprise who is at No. 1.
Best pick-and-roll defenses minimum 24% of possessions, per Synergy:
You can catch San Diego State's terrific pick-and-roll defense during Saturday's Mountain West dual against Wyoming (8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network and streaming on CBSSports.com and the CBS Sports App).
Houston will also be back in action Saturday when it hosts Cincinnati (4:30 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming on CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App and Paramount+ with Showtime).
4. Pick-and-roll defenses to attackConversely, which NCAA Tournament-caliber teams have struggled to guard pick-and-rolls? This could be an interesting angle to attack when the bracket comes out.
- Vanderbilt is 333rd nationally in defending pick-and-rolls. Opponents shoot over 35% on 3s generated from ball-screens against the 'Dores.
- Purdue's pick-and-roll defense has had pockets of the season when its been a strength and other areas where it's been highly vulnerable. Right now, the Boilers are struggling mightily. Purdue is down to 324th in pick-and-roll defense nationally.
- Kentucky opponents are shooting nearly 53% on 2s created from pick-and-rolls. That ranks 332nd in the country. Overall, Kentucky's pick-and-roll defense would rate a whole lot worse if teams weren't shooting a measly 30% on 3s.
- Alabama opponents are scoring on over 42% of its pick-and-roll possessions against the Tide. That ranks 310th nationally. Nope, don't like that.
Teams change and evolve rapidly, for better and for worse. Let's split the data up from November and December and compare it to January and February. Shoutout to Bart Torvik.
- Louisville was the No. 56 offense through the first two months. It is the No. 15 offense in the last two months. Pat Kelsey for ACC Coach of the Year.
- BYU was the No. 24 offense through the first two months. It is up to the No. 7 offense in the last two months. Kevin Young's pick-and-rolls are destroying defenses right now.
- Utah State was No. 42 through the first two months, and it is up to No. 6 in the last two months. That's a dangerous club in March.
- UCLA was the No. 109 offense in the first two months and the No. 29 offense in the last two months.
- UC San Diego was the No. 127 offense through the first two months. It is the No. 38 offense in the last two months.
- Marquette was the No. 14 offense through the first two months and the No. 75 through the last two.
- Pitt had the No. 15 offense through the first two months. The Panthers have dropped to No. 77 in the last two months. The vibes in the Steel City aren't great.
- Iowa State was a top-five offense through the first 12 games. It has slipped down to 47th in its last 15 games.
- Saint Mary's was the No. 56 defense through the first two months. It has been the third-best defense in the sport since January 1. Randy Bennett. What a stud.
- New Mexico was the No. 82 defense in the first two months and the No. 3 defense in the last two months. These Lobos are terrifyingly good defensively. Tru Washington is locking dudes up left and right.
- St. John's was the No. 22 defense through the first two months. Rick Pitino's unit is No. 1 in defensive efficiency since New Year's Day.
- Kentucky was the No. 35 defense in the first two months. It ranks 106th in defensive efficiency in its last 14 games.
- Illinois was the No. 5 defense through the first two months. It is the No. 61 defense in the last two months.
Illinois hosts Iowa Tuesday before hitting the road to Ann Arbor for Sunday's tilt against No. 15 Michigan (3:45 p.m. ET on CBS and streaming on CBSSports.com, CBS Sports App and Paramount+ with Showtime).
9. Consistency, the good10. Consistency, the bad- Kansas' adjusted offensive rating was 114.4 during the first two months. Its adjusted offensive rating is 113.9 in the last two months. Both rank outside the top 45 nationally. It is what it is at this point with the Jayhawks whose offense doesn't strike fear into anybody these days.
- TCU's offense rated 149th nationally in the first two months. Nothing has changed. TCU is 177th in offense in the last eight weeks. When the Horned Frogs miss the dance, this sloggy offense is the reason why.
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