X factors for every Top 25 team: What could make (or break) the season
For every college football team, the season often can swing on one person, position group or situation. If this one thing comes together as planned -- or even better than expected -- the season could be a big success. If it doesn't go well, the team's season could go south.
Though the quarterback position often fills that role, especially when there's a new player at the helm, other concerns can be shoring up a weakness from last year, incorporating a key transfer or having an important player return from injury.
For the teams in our post-spring Power Rankings, the stakes are particularly high. Spots in the College Football Playoff are on the line, and failure could put coaches on the hot seat.
We asked our college football reporters to provide the biggest X factor -- the one thing that could make or break the season -- for each of our Top 25 teams.
1. Penn State Nittany LionsX factor: QB Drew Allar's big-game performances
Penn State enters what appears to be an all-in season, and Allar has the ingredients to be the top NFL quarterback prospect for the 2026 draft. But his play under the brightest of lights has left something to be desired. He hasn't beaten Ohio State or Michigan, he delivered some good moments in a Big Ten championship game loss to Oregon but was still intercepted twice, and threw the crucial interception in a CFP semifinal loss to Notre Dame. Penn State has made the necessary investments around Allar, who will share a backfield with probably the nation's top running back tandem. The time has come for the senior to be at his best in the biggest moments. If he delivers, Penn State will have a real chance at its first national title since 1986. -- Adam Rittenberg
2. Clemson TigersX factor: Run defense
Though the Tigers have had standout players across their front seven over the past few years, that group has fallen short in one particular area -- rush defense -- and it became glaring last season. The truth is, its decline began when Wes Goodwin took over as defensive coordinator. In each of his three seasons, the rush defense has gotten worse, culminating in what became a major issue in 2024. Clemson gave up 160.6 yards on the ground, and there isn't much more proof needed as to how poorly the Tigers attempted to stop the run than their playoff loss to Texas, when the Longhorns rushed for 292 yards. Clemson tackled poorly and often took bad angles. This season Tom Allen takes over after leading one of the best rushing defenses in the country at Penn State. Expect this area to be vastly improved, returning to the standard Clemson set under Brent Venables. -- Andrea Adelson
3. Texas LonghornsX factor: Middle of the defensive line
Texas has been loaded the past two seasons, but one of the reasons it made back-to-back CFP semifinal trips were the big men in the middle of the defensive line. Giant, athletic space-eaters such as T'Vondre Sweat, Vernon Broughton, Byron Murphy II and Alfred Collins made it tough to push the Longhorns around and freed up others to make plays when they weren't. But this offseason, Texas had to go searching for big men, landing Syracuse freshman All-American Maraad Watson (6-foot-3, 313 pounds), Cole Brevard (6-3, 333) from Purdue, North Carolina's Travis Shaw (6-5, 342), and 6-5, 299-pound German Hero Kanu, who arrives from Ohio State. Five-star freshman Justus Terry (6-5, 268) is already on campus and will look to be in the mix along with sophomore Alex January (6-5, 308), who appeared in 11 games last season. The Longhorns have star edge rushers in Colin Simmons, Trey Moore, and do-everything linebacker Anthony Hill Jr. to bring pressure. But opening against Ohio State, then hitting an SEC schedule with so many new faces up front will be a key area for Texas. -- Dave Wilson
4. Georgia BulldogsX factor: WR Colbie Young
Georgia hopes it upgraded its receiver corps by adding Zachariah Branch (USC) and Noah Thomas (Texas A&M), and heralded freshman C.J. Wiley. The return of Young, a senior, might end up being equally important. Young played sparingly last season and was suspended while facing criminal charges involving an alleged domestic violence incident. He reached a plea deal with prosecutors and returned to the team. He's an outside threat that excels at making contested catches. "Yeah, he gives you problems outside," Georgia coach Kirby Smart said. "You're going out there and there's not a lot of defense you can have for a guy that gets the ball at the highest point and goes up." -- Mark Schlabach
5. Ohio State BuckeyesX factor: TE Max Klare
The Buckeyes landed the top tight end in the transfer portal in Klare, who arrived in Columbus from Purdue. Klare caught 51 passes for 685 years and four touchdowns during his sophomore season, easily leading the Boilermakers in those three categories. The 6-foot-4, 240-pound Klare figures to give the Buckeyes a dynamic target over the middle of the field, nicely complementing receiver Carnell Tate and All-American wideout Jeremiah Smith. Klare's presence should also give Ohio State's new starting quarterback -- whether it's Julian Sayin or Lincoln Kienholz -- a playmaking security blanket early in the season. With Smith set to command attention on the outside, Klare should find plenty of favorable matchups operating inside. -- Jake Trotter
6. LSU TigersX factor: QB Garrett Nussmeier
Quite simply, Nussmeier will determine how far LSU goes in 2025. Recent years have been good to the returning LSU starter -- Jayden Daniels being the latest example -- and Nussmeier's stats from last season compare to those of Daniels from 2022 before he won the Heisman Trophy the following year. Brian Kelly did a fantastic job in the transfer portal bolstering the roster, including getting Nussmeier plenty of weapons and added protection. If there were a situation in which a good player becomes great in 2025, it feels as if it's in Baton Rouge with Nussmeier helping Kelly achieve what he came to LSU to do. -- Harry Lyles Jr.
7. Notre Dame Fighting IrishX factor: QB CJ Carr
Carr hasn't attempted a pass in a game yet at Notre Dame, but the quarterback is facing lofty expectations heading into the 2025 season. Carr, the grandson of former Michigan coach Lloyd Carr, is still locked in a battle with Kenny Minchey for the starting job. Last year's backup, Steve Angeli, transferred to Syracuse. After redshirting last year because of an elbow injury in his throwing arm, Carr performed well in spring practice. He appears to be the player to beat. The Saline, Michigan, native was ranked the No. 2 pocket passer in the Class of 2024, according to ESPN. With running backs Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price returning, along with a good offensive line, the Irish might not need much from Carr. But he'll have to avoid turnovers and make good decisions while running the offense. -- Mark Schlabach
8. Oregon DucksX factor: QB Dante Moore
Dan Lanning's team is so deep and well rounded that it's hard to say the Ducks' success this season will hinge entirely on Moore. And yet, since the Ducks' lineage of quarterbacks (Justin Herbert, Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel) has buoyed Oregon's offense in recent years, Moore has some big shoes to fill. The 20-year-old sophomore spent a year learning under Gabriel and offensive coordinator Will Stein after getting thrown into the fire as a true freshman starter during his lone season at UCLA. This time, the stage will be much bigger and the pressure much higher. -- Paolo Uggetti
9. Alabama Crimson TideX factor: QB Ty Simpson
Simpson has waited his turn and had chances to win the quarterback job at Alabama, and now it's his time unless he takes a step back during preseason camp, which is something nobody at Alabama expects to happen. In his fourth year in the program, Simpson will be starting anew with first-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, but he has the multidimensional skills Grubb likes in his quarterback. Getting off to a good start will be critical for Simpson and the Tide. -- Chris Low
10. BYU CougarsX factor: LB Siale Esera
After playing in only five games in each of the past two seasons, Esera's career hasn't gotten off to the start many were expecting from the Provo native. But now that he is fully healthy, that should change. Esera emerged from spring ball as a starting linebacker and has drawn rave reviews from both head coach Kalani Sitake and defensive coordinator Jay Hill. At 6-foot-3, 245 pounds, he has both the size and athleticism to become a difference-maker in the Big 12 -- and that's the expectation. -- Kyle Bonagura
11. Illinois Fighting IlliniX factor: OLB Gabe Jacas
Jacas might not be a national name just yet, but he has the skill set to propel Illinois and contend for the sport's biggest defensive honors. The 6-foot-3, 275-pound Jacas led Illinois in sacks (8), tackles for loss (13), forced fumbles (3) and quarterback hurries (10) last fall, and bypassed the NFL for another chance with an Illini squad that returns most of its core players from a 10-win team. Illinois probably needs to develop more pass-rush punch around Jacas, who was the team's only consistent threat off the edge last season. The Illini also struggled a bit against good passing offenses. But if Jacas can defeat double-teams, or free up others to pressure quarterbacks, Illinois should have a chance at its first CFP appearance. -- Rittenberg
12. Arizona State Sun DevilsX factor: Wide receivers beyond Jordyn Tyson
Despite sitting out the last two games of the season, Tyson caught 75 passes in 2024. All other Arizona State wide receivers combined for 61 receptions. It was certainly impressive that the Sun Devils managed two great performances at the end of the season without Tyson, but the limitations of the ASU receiving corps ramped up the degree of difficulty for quarterback Sam Leavitt and do-everything running back Cam Skattebo. With Skattebo now in the NFL, some combination of receivers Malik McClain and Derek Eusebio, and incoming transfers Jalen Moss (Fresno State), Noble Johnson (Clemson) and Jaren Hamilton (Alabama) will need to come up big to make sure Leavitt and Tyson have the help they need. -- Bill Connelly
13. South Carolina GamecocksX factor: WR Nyck Harbor
No player on South Carolina's roster looks the part quite like Harbor. He's 6-foot-5, 235 pounds, built like DK Metcalf and is an absolute rocket. But that speed has been a bit of his downfall through two seasons in Columbia, where he has spent spring as part of the Gamecocks' track team. Call it a distraction -- that's debatable -- but his development on the football field hasn't been quite as fast as the Gamecocks might have hoped. Harbor has started 13 games over two seasons but caught only 38 passes and three touchdowns. This spring, he focused solely on football, and he says he's poised for a breakthrough. "Going through a whole year totally committed to football, I've never had that before," Harbor said. "It's done wonders in my ability to understand the game and build off last year. I'm going to be a whole different player by the time fall rolls around." -- David Hale
14. Iowa State CyclonesX factor: WR Chase Sowell
Sowell steps into a wide receiver room that lost its top two players -- Jayden Higgins (second-round pick by the Houston Texans) and Jaylin Noel (third-round pick by the Texans) -- leaving a massive production gap on the outside. Sowell was a reliable option at East Carolina the past two seasons -- 34 catches, 678 yards in 2024; 47 catches, 622 yards in 2023 -- and is expected to offer the Cyclones a much-needed big-play threat. Sowell should benefit from the experience of quarterback Rocco Becht, who will be starting for a third straight season in Ames. -- Bonagura
15. SMU MustangsX factor: TE RJ Maryland
For sheer NFL potential, there might not be a better prospect at SMU than Maryland. The tight end has racked up 17 touchdown catches over his first three seasons, but last year was cut short after he was injured in a win over Stanford, sitting out the rest of the season. Maryland should be back to 100% by the start of the 2025 season, and his return comes at a critical time for SMU's passing game, as six of the other seven Mustangs to reel in at least 200 receiving yards last season are gone. A healthy Maryland creates a clear-cut mismatch and forces defenses to adjust each week. He could be in line for a breakthrough season -- and if that happens, the Mustangs' offense should follow suit. -- Hale
16. Texas Tech Red RaidersX factor: Defensive coordinator Shiel Wood
It really can't be overstated that this defense has to be better. Texas Tech has been one of the biggest storylines of the college football offseason when it comes to roster building, largely because of the Red Raiders' willingness to spend money. Wood comes in after tenures as defensive coordinator at Tulane in 2023 and Houston in 2024. On paper, this is a much more talented group. Statistically, it can't be much worse. But we won't know until the opening kickoff. -- Lyles
17. Indiana HoosiersX factor: QB Fernando Mendoza
Can Mendoza, a transfer from Cal, take another jump in 2025? Among all the variables that could potentially lift -- or let down -- the Hoosiers' in Year 2 under coach Curt Cignetti, none feel more important than this. Mendoza became a beacon of a spirited (if ultimately underwhelming) 6-7 campaign for the Bears last fall, when he completed 68.7% of his passes (12th best nationally among QBs with at least 100 passing attempts) in his first full season as a starter. Mendoza has big shoes to fill after Kurtis Rourke motored Indiana's record-setting offense to the nation's second-best points per game tally (41.3) in 2024. But Mendoza should be playing behind a sturdier offensive line in 2025, and there are plenty of playmakers within an intriguing Hoosiers skill position group led by veteran receiver Elijah Sarratt. If Mendoza can find another gear operating a more favorable situation this fall, it could go a long way toward pulling Indiana back into playoff contention. -- Eli Lederman
18. Kansas State WildcatsX factor: QB Avery Johnson
The K-State program is obviously in sturdy shape, having won between eight and 10 games for four straight years under Chris Klieman. But when you sign a big-time, blue-chip quarterback such as Johnson (ESPN's No. 3 dual-threat QB in the 2023 class), you're giving yourself a shot at a higher ceiling than usual. Johnson's first season as a starter in 2024 was all over the map -- the good was very good, the bad was awfully worrisome -- which is how these things usually go. But now he's entering his junior season, and he has a super explosive skill corps with weapons such as running back Dylan Edwards, receiver Jayce Brown and transfers Caleb Medford (New Mexico) and Antonio Martin Jr. (Southeastern Louisiana). If Johnson is ready to live up to his hype, Kansas State fans could really enjoy 2025. -- Connelly
19. Florida GatorsX factor: Health of QB DJ Lagway
Quarterback play at any level of football is more valuable than it has ever been, and a big reason expectations are growing in Gainesville is because of No. 2 for the Gators. Lagway had some shoulder soreness in the offseason that carried over from last year, so he was limited in spring practice and played only five snaps in the spring game. He resumed throwing in late April, and it seems Florida has been cautious in hopes of having him ready to go this fall for a healthy season. -- Lyles
20. Michigan WolverinesX factor: QB Bryce Underwood
Underwood's high-profile commitment flip from LSU to Michigan was among the biggest recruiting coups yet in the NIL era. The Wolverines also brought in Mikey Keene through the transfer portal. Keene has thrown for 8,245 career yards and 65 touchdowns during stints at Fresno State and UCF. But Underwood has the talent that could turn Michigan into a playoff contender. That's a lot to ask of a true freshman. But Underwood isn't an ordinary freshman. The top-rated pocket passer in the 2025 class, Underwood won two state titles in Michigan and went 50-4 as the starter at Belleville High School, with 38 straight victories from Week 4 of his freshman season to the state title game of his junior year. The Wolverines struggled to throw the ball last year. Underwood could immediately change that in 2025 -- if he wins the job. -- Trotter
21. Miami HurricanesX factor: Defensive secondary
Headed into last season, the X factor for Miami was a thin secondary, and that unit ended up having a role in costing the Hurricanes a spot in the ACC championship game. Now, that group should be considered a strength -- and the X factor again. If this unit plays the way it is projected to, the Hurricanes will have fixed the biggest issue on their team from a year ago. Miami brought in highly touted transfers Charles Brantley (Michigan State), Xavier Lucas (Wisconsin) and Zechariah Poyser (Jacksonville State), returns FWAA freshman All-American OJ Frederique Jr., and signed several freshmen and others through the portal to build depth. Without question, Miami is far more talented at this position, and that could be the difference between playing for a championship. -- Adelson
22. Louisville CardinalsX factor: Running game
There might not be a better one-two punch at tailback in the country than Louisville's duo of Isaac Brown and Duke Watson. Among Power 4 backs with at least 60 carries last season, Watson led the nation by averaging 8.9 yards per rush. Brown was fourth at 7.11. Over Louisville's final eight games of the season, the duo combined for 1,264 rushing yards, 121 receiving yards and 16 scrimmage touchdowns while forcing 43 missed tackles. Plus, the Cards' O-line should be among the ACC's best, creating a blueprint for one of the most explosive ground attacks in the country. -- Hale
23. Texas A&M AggiesX factor: Running game
The Aggies' offense will go as far as their running backs take it. Last season, Le'Veon Moss broke out, averaging 6.3 yards a carry with 10 touchdowns, and had been responsible for about a quarter of the offense's entire production when he was lost for the season because of a knee injury against South Carolina in November. The Aggies, 7-1 going into that game, lost that one, then finished 8-5 without Moss, losing to Auburn, Texas and USC by a combined 16 points to limp to the finish. Freshman Rueben Owens, a star recruit, also missed most of last season because of a foot injury. With Moss and Owens back, along with Amari Daniels, who added 700 yards and eight TDs last year, suddenly A&M has an embarrassment of riches at the position. With the Aggies returning a strong offensive line, offensive coordinator Collin Klein will be able to take some pressure off quarterback Marcel Reed's development along with a new group of wide receivers. -- Wilson
24. Ole Miss RebelsX factor: WR Cayden Lee
Ole Miss enters the 2025 season with a first-year starter at quarterback in Austin Simmons. Much has been made about the transfers Lane Kiffin brought in at receiver, specifically with De'Zhaun Stribling and Harrison Wallace III. But Lee comes in off of a solid sophomore season, with 874 yards and two touchdowns on 57 receptions. Adding talent in the portal is good, no doubt, but there is value in guys who have (literally) been there and done that. -- Lyles
25. Oklahoma SoonersX factor: QB John Mateer
The Sooners swung big in the transfer portal and brought in Mateer (along with his offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle) from Washington State to bring some life to an offense that finished 97th nationally in scoring offense (24 points per game) and 113th in total offense (313 yards per game) last season. Mateer can beat defenses with his arm and legs. He was the only FBS quarterback last season to pass for more than 3,000 yards (3,139) and rush for more than 800 yards (826), and he accounted for 44 touchdowns (29 passing and 15 rushing). If he plays at a similar level in Norman, the Sooners should be one of the most improved teams in the SEC. -- Low
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