An Iranian Explains What Happened This Week—And What the Country Must Do Now

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In a surprise attack in the dead of night, Israel took out several of Iran’s top military chain of command. Explosions rung out in half a dozen Iranian cities, pulverizing apartment blocks and disabling some of the country’s missile batteries, as well as the above-ground portions of Iran’s main enrichment plant at Natanz. Iran reported that 78 people were killed and more than 320 were wounded, the majority of the victims being civilians.

Few people can explain, in plain terms, just how the attack played out on the ground, and what ordinary Iranians make of a night that leveled homes while killing the commanders who ordered crackdowns on protestors within the country just a few years ago. Reza Talebi, is a journalist who has lived on every side of this drama. Talebi served as a captain in Iran’s Air Force, trained as an air-traffic controller, and once monitored the very radar screens Israel reportedly attacked. The regime later jailed him for three years, after which he fled to Turkey, earned a Ph.D. in international law, and today reports for BBC International from Leipzig, Germany, where he writes in four languages. Crucially, Talebi still trades messages with friends inside Iran’s air-defense network, three of whom died in Friday’s strike on the Tabriz radar station. Talebi walked me through how the events unfolded in a candid phone call. Our conversation has been condensed and edited for clarity.

Aymann Ismail: By now, everyone has seen the news that Israel pounded Iran with a series of strikes. Could you tell me how exactly it unfolded from your perspective?

Reza Talebi: Around half past 3 a.m., Israeli aircraft attacked from inside Iranian airspace. You may already know this, but Iran does not have a comprehensive system against missiles and airstrikes. Half their air defenses are from the [19]70s, 60s and older, with radar dating back to the Iran-Iraq war. Iran tried to modernize it, but they couldn’t because of internal conflicts between the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] and the Iranian Army.

I know people who were working the Tabriz radars that night. They described to me how it began with Isreal jamming the radar systems, first hacking them, and then striking them with missiles making Iran blind in the North West. Israel then entered Iranian air space and struck more than 100 targets, like the above-ground nuclear base in Natanz, near Isfahan. Soon after, they received alerts from city centers, including Tehran. What was more shocking was to learn that Israeli Mossad was able to conduct a strike that involved setting up a UAV base from within Tehran to attack the offices and homes of IRGC commanders. They killed nearly 20 people, including scientists. This is a major humiliation for the Iranian government, that Israel proved it can strike from within Iran, including at the center of Iran.

Israel has been talking about bombing Iran for decades now. Why do you think they decided to strike now?

This all came just after Trump gave Iran an ultimatum to concede on their negotiations. This is also the perfect time for Israel when they have the advantage. Israel has already severely weakened proxy groups, like Hezbollah and the Houthis, and now they must believe they can withstand a war on all of those fronts. At the same time, there are whispers about Israeli efforts to support guerrilla rebels within Iran, and sow internal conflict.

Iran has already retaliated by launching from its arsenal of 150,000 ballistic missiles, like they had last year, but they are not very accurate because they do not have updated GPS technology. But I think Iran would be better off not continuing to retaliate, given that the international community has already shown that it is willing to tolerate Israel killing 60,000 people in Gaza and starve the survivors, so the international community will not hesitate if Israel and the United States destroys the country. [Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali] Khamenei understands that Iran cannot fight Israel and the United States. But now, they are in a position where they need to apply some pressure back on Israel. Khamenei’s statement shows that he understands this, because it is my opinion very tempered. But it continues to be a tricky situation for the Iranian government. It’s possible they have nuclear bombs, after all, the Washington Post reported last year that Iran has acquired enough enriched uranium to produce nuclear bombs. And if that is the case, and Iran deploys a nuclear ballistic missle against Israel, after this, Iran will also face global isolation, leading to social and economic collapse. So it’s better in every way for Iran to not retaliate strongly against Israel. Now, they must try and save their people, because the alternative is being destroyed by the United States and Israel.

What are you hearing from people in Iran right now?

We have a broad diversity of people in Iran. Some are praying to God for the downfall of the mullah regime, and though they doubt Israel will help them, at least they could kill him. There are many Iranians who are tired of the government but believe there is no better alternative. There is also the existence of Islamist groups that emerged after Saddam’s war against Iran. There are also many Turks, Kurds, and others, who all have their dense small communities, who each have their own ideas for how Iran should be led, and feel like the Iranian regime is occupying them and do not invest enough in their communities.

On top of this, there is also a generational gap. There are people my mother’s age, who went out for a picnic, believing they’d rather be killed by an Israeli airstrike than live their lives afraid of them. There are also very young Iranians born post-Islamic revolution who think of this as a golden opportunity for an uprising. But, 90 percent of the people I’ve spoken to are afraid of the war because there are so many wars in the Middle East, like in Syria, Afghanistan, and Palestine, and they are afraid their people will also begin to experience the same pain and loss in their country.

Have you heard from anyone who was in close proximity to any of the Israeli airstrikes?

I have a close friend, a lieutenant in the Airforce, who was on duty in one of the radar stations struck by Israel. He said in a split second, after spotting the Israeli missile, he reacted and somehow survived. I had many friends at that station. Three of them died in that strike.

I also spoke to someone in Tehran who lived in one of the areas struck by Israel. He said he doesn’t believe the official government death toll. He claims that what he saw in Teheran with his own eyes indicates that closer to 150 people died in Tehran alone. He was in shock. He was in Tehran and survived an Iraqi bombardment of the city, and now he says he is seeing the same thing in Tehran. I heard a similar story from a grandma in Tehran. Another friend, a painter, spoke to me for about an hour. For ten minutes straight, she only cried. She told me she saw situations like this only in the movies.

What do you think is going to be the biggest indication of where things are headed?

Honestly, just like any other person, I want the best for my country. But I’m a pessimist. Our government is not tied to Islamic revelation. It’s a Frankenstein system, and I can’t recognize or understand it anymore. We need to destroy this system. But it needs to be us. Not foreigners. Not colonist countries. It’s difficult to destroy, but it’s our job.

What’s next? I expect Iran to negotiate directly with the United States to resolve this conflict. We just don’t have means to retaliate against Israel, and Israel isn’t interested in diplomatic resolutions. But though Iran is weak, run by a dictator, I don’t believe they want to risk destroying the whole country. Every Iranian wants to protect Iran. We put pressure on our leaders as intellectuals and journalists, men and women, to make good decisions to save our country. But all of us know that if Iran continues to retaliate, Israel will destroy us. Iranians must reform the system from within. That is the only way to create a future for our children.

I think now, the Iranian government understands they are under pressure. If they cannot change, the United States will change them, through the hand of Netanyahu. The government understands this is possible. Iran’s best hope is to stop its retaliation and find a diplomatic solution. That is our only chance for peace.

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