Narrow win in Polish presidential election first round for Trzaskowski, who will face Nawrocki in run-off

The official results from the first round of Poland’s presidential election have been announced, confirming a narrow victory for Rafał Trzaskowski, the candidate of Poland’s main centrist ruling party, Civic Platform (PO).

Trzaskowski took 31.36% of the vote, putting him ahead of second-placed Karol Nawrocki, the candidate supported by the national-conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, on 29.54%

The two will now meet in a second-round run-off on 1 June, the winner of which will succeed incumbent President Andrzej Duda when his second and final term in office expires in August.

The outcome will be extremely significant for how Poland is ruled over the coming years. The president has little role in day-to-day governance but can veto bills passed by parliament, a power that the PiS-aligned Duda has used to stymie the agenda of the current government.

The results also confirm a strong showing for the far-right, whose two main candidates finished third and fourth: Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederation (Konderacja) party on 14.81% and Grzegorz Braun, who was expelled from Confederation after announcing his own presidential bid, on 6.34%.

They were followed by Szymon Hołownia (4.99%) of the centrist Poland 2050 (Polska 2050), Adrian Zandberg (4.86%) of the left-wing Together (Razem), and Magdalena Biejat (4.23%) of The Left (Lewica). Poland 2050 and The Left are part of the PO-led ruling coalition.

Turnout, at 67.31%, was the highest ever recorded in the first round of a Polish presidential election, beating the previous record of 64.70% set in 1995.

In Polish presidential elections, if no candidate wins more than 50% in the first round, the two candidates with the most votes meet in a second-round run-off two weeks later. Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will now battle it out for the support of those who voted for other candidates, while also seeking to shore up their own bases.

After voting closed last night, and the exit poll made clear the likely results, Hołownia announced his support for Trzaskowski in the second round.

Likewise, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, leader of the Polish People’s Party (PSL), which is also part of the ruling coalition and had supported Hołownia’s candidacy, said that they would be backing Trzaskowski.

Biejat has not yet made clear her support for Trzaskowski, saying only that she will meet with him to “talk about what is important for left-wing voters”. Zandberg appeared to rule out endorsing Trzaskowski, saying that “voters are not a trophy that one politician can give to another”.

However, the real kingmaker in the second round is likely to be the far right. Both Mentzen and Braun are proudly anti-establishment, railing against both the current PO-led administration and the former PiS government.

It is therefore possible that they could endorse neither Trzaskowski nor Nawrocki. However, on Sunday night, Krzyszstof Bosak, who alongside Mentzen is one of the leaders of Confederation, appeared to hint at support for Nawrocki.

“The total support for candidates from the right side of the spectrum is pleasing,” wrote Bosak, referring to the exit poll. “The second round is winnable!”

Opinion polls in recent weeks, including one taken yesterday, have indicated a narrow victory for Trzaskowski in a potential second-round run-off with Nawrocki. However, much could change over the coming two weeks.

Poland’s three biggest broadcasters, the public TVP and private TVN and Polsat, are planning to hold a televised debate between the two second-round candidates on Wednesday this week. Trzaskowski has confirmed his participation but Nawrocki has yet to do so.

Meanwhile, conservative broadcaster Republika intends to hold a debate of its own on Friday. Trzaskowski has refused to attend previous debates held by the station ahead of the first round.

Main image credit: Wojciech Habdas / Agencja Wyborcza.pl