Syria | Escalation of violence despite ceasefire

Fighting continues in the southern Syrian province of Al-Suweida. Around 150 people have been killed since Tuesday, according to the London-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which also reported "summary executions" by government troops and their allied fighters. The troops have destroyed, stolen, and set fire to property in several villages. Fearing shelling and theft, most shopkeepers have closed their businesses. Because roads are closed, there are serious concerns about shortages of food and medicine.

Israel is also involved in the internal Syrian conflict. The army reportedly attacked the entrance to the Syrian leadership's military headquarters in the Damascus area.

Islamists strive for rebranding

The fall of the bloody Assad regime at the end of 2024 gave Syrians hope for genuine peace. But in practice, violence remained a means of solving problems. This is not surprising, given that the new head of state, Ahmad al-Sharaa, began his career, among other things, as an organizer of terrorist attacks and always resolved conflicts with dissidents in this way before taking office. His jihadist formation, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), had its roots in the terrorist networks of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS). The thinking of such actors continues to be based not only on the complete rejection of "infidels" but also of deviant currents within Islam.

It's more of a "rebranding" when the HTS leadership recently sought international recognition with moderate tones. Even before Assad's fall, al-Sharaa announced the severance of relations with al-Qaeda and ISIS, and now he's also swapped his combat gear for a suit and tie. To appeal to the West, he spoke of democracy and shook Western hands .

Important for the self-proclaimed president were the lifting of sanctions, the removal of HTS from terrorist lists, and the lifting of a bounty on his head. This shift earned him the nickname "Chameleon" in Syria.

Since Assad's fall, there has been concern about persecution

Despite the jubilation over Assad's overthrow, many Syrians worried from the outset about how the HTS government, which adheres to Sunni Islam, would behave. These concerns proved to be justified, as massacres soon followed in areas inhabited by religious minorities. For example, in March, more than 1,700 civilians died in attacks by government troops on the Mediterranean coast . Most were members of the Alawite community, a subgroup of Islam to which Assad also belonged.

In April, clashes between the local Druze community and government troops near Damascus again resulted in dozens of deaths. In both cases, the army was joined by fighters without uniforms or identification. The Druze are a separate sectarian group whose members live in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel. There are an estimated 700,000 Druze in Syria.

On July 13, new clashes erupted between Druze and Sunni Arab Bedouin tribes in the Al-Suweida province in southern Syria. Damascus deployed government troops to end the fighting. The predominantly Druze residents of the combat zone initially hoped for a calming of the situation. But then increasing reports emerged of executions, looting, and arson by government troops, with Druze as victims. Thousands of them fled.

Israel presents itself as protector of the Druze

According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, twelve civilians were executed in a guesthouse in the city of Al-Suweida. This is just one of many incidents. The Syrian Defense Minister announced a "complete ceasefire" on Tuesday. Locals report that this has had little impact on the situation on the ground.

The troubled province of Al-Suweida is located not far from Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu announced on July 15 that he had ordered his army to attack troops that had invaded the area in support of the Druze.

In Israel, the Druze are an integral part of society. However, some analysts see the protection of the Druze as more of an Israeli pretext for achieving its own military goals. Since Assad's overthrow, Israel has declared its support for the Druze , invaded Syrian territory, and actively weakened its neighbor's military potential. Israeli troops already control Syrian territory.

The current escalation is taking place against the backdrop of Syrian-Israeli negotiations. Theoretically, Syrian recognition of Israel could ultimately be achieved under the so-called Abraham Accords. However, fundamental issues remain unresolved, such as Israel's 1967 occupation of the strategically important Syrian Golan Heights. While Assad's government has remained silent on the matter, the same is unlikely to be true of Al-Sharaa. He himself comes from the region. Israel, on the other hand, demonstrates at every opportunity that, from its own perspective, this issue is closed.

Escalation of violence is also a signal to the Kurds

At the same time, the escalation of violence against Druze is seen by many as a signal to the Kurds, who control almost 30 percent of Syria. In March, they signed an agreement with the new authorities in Damascus on the integration of their fighters into the national armed forces. In practice, this process is extremely difficult; the Kurds want autonomy and security guarantees. Israel, which had previously promised the Kurds protection, is sending a signal to Damascus with its intervention that it would also strike to protect the Kurds if necessary.

Ultimately, the jihadist groups under interim President al-Sharaa's command will remain a major obstacle to a lasting peace between Syria and Israel. Their "rebranding" will not change their ruthless actions against minorities in the country, because the people and their attitudes remain the same. Thus, the current outbreak of violence in southern Syria is unlikely to be the last in the country's near future.