As I get older, I become susceptible to conspiracy theories. So they determine my investment strategy.

After gold, I now also hold Bitcoin in my portfolio to protect myself against another debt crisis. In case the AI bubble bursts next year, I have a radical solution up my sleeve.

Jennifer Lorenzini / Reuters
A year ago, I revealed myself as a late-blooming gold fan in this column. Before that, I had ridiculed the gold bugs and their conspiracy theories.
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How could this have happened? Perhaps because, now at 51, I'm more susceptible to conspiracy theories myself. Or because the expectation that the uncontrolled growth of national debt can only be controlled by printing money has become quite mainstream .
Either way, I would never have imagined that precious metals, of all things, could contribute so much to the performance of my third pillar, where I hold around 8 percent gold. This is possible with my provider, which allows me to put together my own investment mix using a limited selection of low-cost index funds.
Sudden doubtsRecently, however, I began to have doubts when I saw a report on social media about queues outside precious metals dealers. I thought: Now a bubble is inflating.
Should I reduce my gold holdings? I already logged into my Pillar 3 provider, but decided against it at the last minute. After all, you should only adjust your investment strategy in exceptional circumstances. And I still believe in gold and its protective effect in the event of another debt and currency crisis.
But since I'd already logged in, I saw that Bitcoin investments were now also possible – up to a 5 percent share. As a result, I now hold 5 percent of Bitcoin in addition to gold.
So I feel prepared for a sovereign debt crisis and the specter of debasement. This historical term from the world of coinage is used metaphorically by us gold bugs, Bitcoin enthusiasts, and libertarian nutcases. In the past, when budget problems arose, rulers would often remove some of the precious metal from gold or silver coins and replace it with copper. This way, the coins retained their face value while their material value declined. Those in power have always manipulated our money.
In the context of today's currencies, debasement means the gradual devaluation caused by a massive expansion of the money supply. Fortunately, we are less affected by this in Switzerland, and yet I have put a defensive mechanism in place with my third pillar. I'm a prepper.
Dark premonitionI recently discovered a feature in my 3a app that lets you sell all your securities with one click. How convenient, I thought, because for several months now I've had a dark premonition: that the AI bubble will burst next year, and investments worth hundreds of billions of dollars will turn out to be worthless. Then, in a general panic, all stocks would probably plummet, and high-risk investments like Bitcoin would be the lowest.
Investors who have speculated with borrowed capital then dump their gold on the market because the banks are asking them to inject more money, and gold has lost the least value up to that point. In short, a full-blown financial crisis ensues.
I, however, am triumphant. Because I will have pressed the right button in time.
An article from the « NZZ am Sonntag »
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