Customs dispute between EU and USA: No deal with Trump at any price
Narcissists often believe the entire world revolves around them. In the vast majority of cases, this is a false assumption that complicates the lives of those affected. However, the situation is different for the greatest narcissist of our time: Donald Trump is right that large parts of the world revolve around him. And unfortunately, this doesn't make his life more complicated—it makes everyone else's.
Since his inauguration almost half a year ago, the US president has kept the global economy on edge with his trade policy. "Policy" is hardly the right word, at least not if one understands it according to the classic definition as a set of guiding principles, rules, or guidelines. With Trump, none of that exists; his policies essentially consist of threats, inconstancy, and arbitrariness.
The US President declared a tariff war on the entire world and simultaneously offered every single country a peace agreement – on his terms, of course. Since then, the powerful have courted him, the financial markets crave his statements, and corporate executives seek his favor. Even ordinary US presidents are assured of the attention of the global public, but Trump has taken the attention game to a whole new level. He is now living every narcissist's dream.
The problem is that it will be almost impossible to satisfy the man in the White House with substantive concessions. He's not hungry for percentages in trade agreements, but for constant confirmation of his own greatness. He may see himself as a great dealmaker, but you can't do business with someone like him – because there's no reliability. Trump has shown time and again in the past that for him, after one deal, he's before the next.
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This makes things difficult for the European Union's negotiators. They can't simply dismiss the President of the United States' statements as whims, because they obviously have massive repercussions for the real economy. Just last May, German exports to the US plummeted dramatically. The main reason is the uncertain tariff situation. Trump's erratic political style is costing prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic.
At the same time, however, it would be wrong to give in to the whims of the unpredictable out of concern for the economy. It would most likely even be counterproductive.
The trade conflict during Trump's first presidency already demonstrated that the former real estate tycoon understands the language of strength above all else. In 2018, then-Commission President Jean-Claude Junker did not hesitate to impose counter-tariffs on Levi's jeans, Harley-Davidson motorcycles, and bourbon whiskey. Shortly afterwards, he stood beside Trump in the White House Rose Garden and declared the trade conflict over.
When in doubt, Europe must stand firm. Anyone who wants a rules-based trade order in which the strongest doesn't automatically prevail must defend it – even if it hurts. As long as it presents itself as united to the outside world, Europe has the economic strength to do so.
And as tempting as a compromise that reduces trade restrictions would be, it would be just as dangerous if only Europe were to pay the price. Giving the already overwhelmingly powerful US tech companies free rein in exchange for reducing auto tariffs by a few percentage points would be a bad deal in the long run. Before that happens, it's better not to have one.
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