Despondent climate policy: Is the black-red coalition losing public acceptance?

The mudslinging over the Heating Act has shown how important public acceptance is for climate protection. How is the new federal government dealing with this? The first weeks of the red-black coalition have shown that lessons have been learned from the traffic light policy. But initial statements from political leaders indicate "that climate policy ambitions could fall by the wayside." This is the conclusion of the current Climate Acceptance Check conducted by the Bertelsmann Foundation and the Climate Neutrality Foundation. The study has been made available to the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND).

Measures to limit global warming stand or fall with public support. It is crucial that citizens actually perceive their effectiveness, fair distribution, and impact. Does climate policy provide feasible solutions for all households to switch to climate-neutral alternatives? This is the key question, believe authors Frederik Digulla and Sara Holzmann.

The focus for the Black-Red coalition is CO2 pricing. This is already happening, but is to be significantly expanded. The most important change: a new EU trading system for carbon dioxide emissions in transport and heating, starting in 2027. Gasoline and diesel, natural gas, and heating oil are to become noticeably more expensive. The CDU/CSU and SPD are aware that this will be met with acceptance problems. However, the coalition partners remained vague on their political response, the paper states.

The coalition agreement only mentions in general terms that, in return, there will be "unbureaucratic and socially staggered relief measures." Furthermore, Economics Minister Katherina Reiche (CDU) wants to reduce electricity prices by at least 5 cents per kilowatt hour starting in 2026. While this would have the advantage of providing "significant relief" for people with limited income, it remains to be seen whether the cost reductions "will actually be linked to climate policy and CO2 pricing and will have a positive effect on acceptance."

Digulla and Holzmann strongly criticize the promotion of e-mobility recently announced by Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil (SPD). Tax incentives are planned, which will primarily apply to expensive company cars. "This will not provide support for low-income households, nor will it lead to more affordable e-cars coming onto the market, which would potentially expand the used car market, which is important for many households, with affordable electric models," the duo criticize.

While there are approaches to "social leasing" – a socially staggered and government-subsidized leasing model for electric cars – this would be financed with money from the EU Climate Social Fund, the volume of which is likely to be quite modest. Therefore, it is to be expected that these instruments "will only reach a few households and lack a broad impact," the economists say.

The topic of replacing heating systems also receives a thumbs-down. The planned continuation of the subsidy would benefit "predominantly wealthy households." While the coalition agreement also mentions a socially scaling approach to this issue, "the concrete implementation of this requirement remains open."

The chapter on regulatory law in the study is titled "Despairing Steps Backward." It is very worrying that Minister Reiche speaks of a "heat pump requirement," which she now wants to abolish, even though it never existed, and that she advocates gas heating. "Every gas heating system installed now will cause high CO2 costs in the coming years and represents an incalculable individual risk."

There was a risk of misinvestments because the thermal bath would have to be replaced prematurely if either climate targets prohibit continued operation or the gas distribution networks become unviable and costs explode. "The government's approach is short-sighted and problematic in terms of public acceptance."

Digulla and Holzmann, on the other hand, welcome infrastructure projects such as the expansion of rail and public transport, but express serious doubts as to whether the planned measures as a whole are sufficient to achieve the ambitious climate targets for the coming years. They see a major problem looming here: On the one hand, the coalition has recognized the importance of social support. "But a climate policy that only focuses on (supposed) acceptance and thereby misses the climate targets is even less likely to be successful."