Energy transition in danger: What threatens the wind industry now – and how it intends to counteract it

In just under four weeks, Economics Minister Katherina Reiche (CDU) plans to announce her plan for restarting the energy transition. There is a sense of alarm surrounding renewables – particularly in the wind energy sector. There is speculation that the ministry's monitoring will result in a slowdown in expansion.

Finally, the minister publicly stated that she sees a "completely unrealistic and excessive renewable energy target" at work, which the traffic light coalition is responsible for. In the future, expansion must be approached "with a grid focus and not the other way around": a 180-degree turnaround.

The targets for the growth of renewables are nothing more than a derivation of the legally established climate targets. For onshore wind energy, for example, this means that rotors with a total capacity of 69 gigawatts should have been turning in Germany by the end of 2024. However, according to recently published figures from the Wind and Solar Agency, this figure was only 63.34 gigawatts as of June 30, 2025.

Although there was a lot of work in the first half of the year, 409 modern wind turbines with a total capacity of 2.2 gigawatts were connected to the grid – the highest number since 2017. The German Wind Energy Association (BWE) and the manufacturer lobby VDMA Power Systems forecast that a total of up to 5.3 gigawatts will be added this year. However, this would mean that the bar will be exceeded again. "Despite the positive developments, there is a gap between the actual expansion and the targets formulated in the Renewable Energy Sources Act," said BWE President Bärbel Heidebroek earlier this week when presenting the latest industry figures.

So, actually, more expansion rather than less. In any case, the industry is now switching to forward defense: The wind industry is currently demonstrating its ability to "flexibly and efficiently adapt production capacities to increasing demand," according to Dennis Rendschmidt, Managing Director of VDMA Power Systems. He adds: "However, in order to secure investments in sustainable industrial growth in the long term, a stable and reliable political and economic framework is required." This is likely directed at Economics Minister Reiche.

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Wind turbine operators are facing a number of threats. The coalition agreement between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) states succinctly: "We are evaluating the area targets for 2032." This is based on the legal requirement that two percent of Germany's land area be designated for wind turbines in seven years, ensuring that slender steel towers with rotors are erected throughout the country.

There is now speculation that the monitoring could be supplemented with a kind of cost clause. After all, the coalition agreement makes extensive use of a "system-beneficial" expansion of renewables and "synchronization" with the grids.

Support for this also comes from the energy giants E.ON and RWE, which is controversial because Reiche was a manager at an E.ON subsidiary before her appointment as minister. The two companies emphasize in a joint position paper: "In the future, renewable energies should be primarily developed where they incur the lowest system costs, especially with regard to infrastructure expansion."

Hauke Hermann, energy expert at the Öko-Institut, warns against misguided approaches. He told the RedaktionsNetzwerk Deutschland (RND): "If the expansion of wind energy is limited by new restrictions, there is a risk that this will happen where expansion is particularly urgent and important: in southern Germany." The scope for maneuver there is particularly large, as the 2 percent area target has not yet been reached by a long way. But: "At the same time, more wind turbines in the south are enormously beneficial because they reduce the need for electricity transport from the north and thus reduce the pressure for grid expansion."

Another central point of the Eon/RWE paper is the issue of electricity demand. It states that to avoid over-dimensioning the grids, realistic scenarios are needed, for example, "with regard to the assumed electricity demand." The background: The "traffic light" government had calculated on a massive increase in demand because it assumed a huge increase in electric cars and heat pumps – both of which have so far been rather modest.

Nevertheless, Heidebroek warns that underestimating electricity demand could become a "self-fulfilling prophecy" and ultimately slow down the entire economy. It's important to make the right assumptions when monitoring. From the BWE head's perspective, this means: "We are convinced that the expansion targets are correct and that electricity demand will continue to rise because we have the electrification of industry, because we have data centers, because we have AI." In such a scenario, Rendschmidt is also clear: "The problem lies more on the grid side. We're doing our homework, but the grids aren't keeping up."