After Erdoğan's warning to Merz: Is Europe threatened by a new wave of refugees from Iran?

The scenes are dramatic: Israel's attacks on Iranian regime facilities have been forcing numerous people in Iran to flee for days. Images of long lines of cars on Tehran's main roads are circulating around the world. Reports from the border with Armenia indicate that hundreds are staying there for fear of airstrikes.

Israel's call on Monday for Tehran residents to leave the Iranian capital will have done the rest. Although Israel is committed to the goal of eliminating Iran's nuclear program, civilians are also being harmed. According to the Iranian Ministry of Health, approximately 200 civilians were reportedly killed by Monday, although these figures are difficult to independently confirm.

The future course of the war is completely uncertain. How long will the fighting between Israel and Iran continue? Will the United States intervene? Will the conflict escalate? One thing is clear: if the war drags on, the likelihood of large-scale refugee movements will increase.

Israel's conduct of the war does not suggest mass exodus

Apparently, this is also worrying Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. He recently warned German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in a phone call about a "spiral of violence triggered by Israel's attacks" – with a massive wave of refugees as a result, which could also harm Europe.

The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) announced on Friday that it is currently drawing up contingency plans for a refugee influx. And Alexander Throm, domestic policy spokesman for the CDU/CSU in the Bundestag, told broadcaster NTV this week that "a wave of refugees is currently underway." He added that Europe is not yet feeling much of it, "but it's not far away."

The type of warfare, however, determines whether refugee movements develop, says Franck Düvell to the Berliner Zeitung. He is a senior researcher at the Institute for Migration Research at the University of Osnabrück. The Israelis' pinprick tactics, directed against military and government facilities, cannot be compared to the situations in Ukraine or Gaza. Therefore, he would be very surprised if Iranians were to leave their country in large numbers. "Perhaps there are families who want to bring women and children to safety, or opposition members who fear being targeted," says Düvell.

Typically, people first leave the immediate combat zone – "to the countryside, to other cities, somewhere where they're out of the line of fire," says the migration researcher. After that, migration flows initially move to neighboring countries. "Only when this continues for a long time does further migration begin, for example, towards Europe. This usually takes years." The example of Syria illustrates this. A devastating civil war began there in 2011, but it wasn't until 2014 that large numbers of people began fleeing towards Europe.

Migration researcher: “It’s a long way from Turkey to Europe”

If Iranians wanted to flee to Europe, they would likely look to places where many Iranian exiles already live. According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry, there were approximately four million of them worldwide in 2021. There are significant Iranian exile communities in France, Great Britain, and Germany. These communities formed after previous social upheavals, such as the Islamic Revolution of 1979. "Back then, it was primarily opposition figures who left the country," explains Franck Düvell. Many of them were well educated—"academics, skilled workers, intellectuals."

Precisely these upheavals also provide potential reasons for flight. "Major upheavals can arise in the shadow of war," says researcher Düvell. It is not unusual for authoritarian systems to become more repressive domestically in times of external conflict. The German November Revolution of 1918/19 is a prime example. In the wake of increasing repression in Iran, a wave of flight could begin, "possibly faster and more comprehensive than the military situation alone would suggest."

This could be particularly true in the Kurdish region of Iran, where separatist groups have been fighting the state for decades. Protests also began there following the violent death of Kurdish woman Jina Mahsa Amini in 2022, which the Iranian regime brutally suppressed. According to migration researcher Düvell, Kurds could flee towards Turkey in the event of an outbreak of violence. "But even there, it's a long way from Turkey to Europe."

The several million Afghan refugees, some of whom have lived in Iran for decades, are in a special situation. Although many were born in the country, they lack legal residency status. They cannot return to their homeland, are directly affected by the war in Iran, and at the same time face immediate deportation in countries like Turkey. A further escalation of violence could trigger a secondary migration movement, Düvell said.