Industry has little capacity: Experts: Russia cannot replace destroyed bombers

The Ukrainian intelligence service (SBU) is considering Operation Spider Web a major success. At the beginning of June, it destroyed several aircraft in the hinterland with drone attacks on Russian airports. The number of bombers hit varies. Experts predict that Moscow will be damaged for years to come, either way.

According to Western aviation experts, Russia will need many years to replace the strategic fighter jets damaged in a Ukrainian drone strike. These losses "will place severe pressure on a core force in the Russian military that was already operating at maximum capacity," said Justin Bronk, an aviation expert at the London-based think tank Rusi.

A few days ago, Ukraine successfully launched a spectacular attack on Russian long-range bombers – some of them thousands of kilometers from the border. Satellite images of airfields in Siberia and the Russian Far North show significant damage, with several aircraft completely burned out.

There are conflicting reports about the total number of aircraft destroyed or damaged by the Ukrainian secret operation "Spider Web." According to the US estimate, up to 20 combat aircraft were hit—about half the number reported by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Around ten aircraft were destroyed, two US officials said. The Russian government denied on Thursday that any aircraft had been destroyed, stating that the damage was being repaired. Russian military bloggers, however, report losses or serious damage to about a dozen aircraft and accuse commanders of negligence.

The losses are unlikely to seriously affect the Russian military's nuclear capabilities, which, experts explain, consist primarily of ground- and submarine-launched missiles. However, the bombers hit were part of a long-range fleet that Russia used throughout the war to fire conventional missiles at Ukrainian targets, Bronk explained. The same fleet also regularly conducted patrols in the Arctic, the North Atlantic, and the North Pacific to deter Western adversaries.

Modernization of Russian bombers stalls

Replacing the aircraft now presents Russia with a challenge. Many date back to the Soviet era, production of which has been discontinued for decades, according to London aviation expert Douglas Barrie. The existing aircraft have been modernized over the years, making an identical new build highly unlikely.

Expert Bronk expressed skepticism about Moscow's chances of accelerating the construction of new bombers. "Russia will have difficulty even implementing the program in the next five years, let alone accelerating it." He said this is due to budget constraints and restrictions on industry due to sanctions.

Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) agrees. While it would be logical for Russia to accelerate plans for a next-generation bomber, he said the capacity may be lacking. Russia is facing delays in several other major defense projects, including the new Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile.