Parliamentary elections | Portugal: Left further decimated

Until the very end, spokespeople for the Socialist Party (PS) clung to the hope that the result would be better than pre-election forecasts had predicted. But with 23.4 percent and only 58 instead of 78 representatives in the 230-seat Assembleia da República, the party, which has alternated power with the conservative PSD for decades, suffered a veritable debacle on Sunday. It is the PS's third-worst result since Portugal's return to democracy half a century ago. Its Secretary General, Pedro Nuno Santos, elected only a year and a half ago, resigned on election night.

Prime Minister Luís Montenegro of the conservative Social Democratic Party (PSD), on the other hand, emerged from the early parliamentary elections with renewed strength. His electoral coalition with the right-wing CDS-PP party, Aliança Democrática (AD), which narrowly beat the Socialists a year ago, gained almost four percent, reaching 32.7 percent. With 89 MPs, another center-right minority government would be dependent on support from other political camps.

The steep rise of André Ventura's far-right Chega party has continued. With 22.6 percent, it is now almost tied with the Socialists as the second strongest party and, like them, has secured 58 seats, nine more than before. However, this tie could only be temporary due to the votes of Portuguese voters who voted abroad. The allocation of five seats will only be determined with the final results. "Today we can say that two-party rule in Portugal is over," Ventura said, celebrating his party's further gains.

Chega scores points with racist slogans and criticism of the corrupt elites, condemning Portugal's path since the Carnation Revolution in 1974 while simultaneously striving to join the conservative camp. Only three years ago, the party rose from an insignificant to the third strongest force and almost doubled its share of the vote to 18.1 percent in 2024. On election night, Ventura renewed his party's willingness to form a formal alliance with the AD of Montenegro. After the last election, the AD had stuck to its no to a coalition with the far-right at the national level. Below this level, however, there has long been no distance between these forces in many places. With its emphasis on "law and order" and the criminalization of migrant communities, AD is also courting the Chega-leaning spectrum.

The second consecutive snap election marked the provisional end of a period of political turmoil in Portuguese politics. Montenegro had helped pave the way for this by accepting a failed vote of confidence in parliament in March following allegations of possible conflicts of interest related to the family business Spinumviva , and advocated for continuity. At the end of 2023, the PS, which had governed with António Costa since 2015, dismantled itself with his hasty resignation following dubious corruption allegations and received its first bitter comeuppance in the March 2024 elections.

Following the three major political groups in the new parliament, the radical free-market Liberal Initiative (IL) follows at a considerable distance with nine MPs (up one), and the green pro-EU party Livre, which received 4.2 percent of the vote and was the only party from the left to gain seats. It increased its number of seats by two and now has six MPs.

The Left Bloc (BE) and the communist-led CDU electoral alliance, on the other hand, suffered setbacks. Under the electoral system, they only have a real chance of winning parliamentary seats in populous constituencies such as Lisbon or Porto, which account for many of the party's mandates. From now on, only its coordinator, Mariana Mortágua, will sit on the Assembleia da República for BE, and the party lost four seats. Mortágua spoke of a "major defeat for the left." "It is important that we acknowledge this defeat with all humility and frankness." The Communists, who received three percent more than BE, also retained national representation. However, they lost one of four mandates.

Election winner Luís Montenegro, whose AD does not have a majority in parliament even with the Liberals, will once again have to show his colors about how he feels about Chega.