Power struggle in Turkey | Dream of a hopeless opposition in Turkey

Last Tuesday, the Turkish public prosecutor's office arrested 126 employees and former members of the Izmir municipality. Izmir is Turkey's third-largest city and considered a stronghold of the opposition CHP party. Among those detained were former mayor Tunç Soyer (2019–2024) and the chairman of the local CHP, Şenol Aslanoğlu. The charges include corruption and financial discrepancies in the awarding of municipal contracts. The fact that this wave of arrests bears strong resemblance to the proceedings against Istanbul mayor and CHP politician Ekrem İmamoğlu and his colleagues is no coincidence, nor is the timing of these latest raids.

On March 19 of this year, İmamoğlu and 260 other people were arrested , after his university degree had been revoked the day before. This means the popular mayor of Istanbul lacks the formal qualifications to run for the office of President of the Turkish Republic. It is therefore assumed that this was a targeted attack against Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's potential challenger. Despite his pre-trial detention, the CHP named İmamoğlu its lead candidate at the end of March – for the presidential election, which officially won't take place until 2028.

Since its surprisingly decisive victory in the 2024 local elections, the largest opposition party, the CHP, has been calling on the AKP government to hold new elections. In addition to spontaneous protests, especially by students, the CHP has held weekly rallies in various regions of the country and several districts of Istanbul since İmamoğlu's arrest, demanding his release. It has also launched a petition for new elections, which, according to the CHP, has already attracted 20 million participants. Last Tuesday marked the 100th day since İmamoğlu's arrest. The CHP again called for a protest in front of Istanbul City Hall, which tens of thousands participated in.

"The idea is to create a future in which law exists but serves power."

Ahmet Murat Aytaç political scientist

The fact that the CHP is being attacked in several waves of legal action, and that leading politicians were arrested in the CHP stronghold of Izmir on Tuesday, is part of a larger government strategy, says political scientist Ahmet Murat Aytaç. In an interview with the left-wing daily newspaper "Evrensel," he said: "We cannot view the overall picture solely as a process of political repression inherent in the nature of the government. It is also a political strategy. The government is not acting this way simply because it has reached a dead end in economic policy or because it wants to weaken and intimidate the opposition. The idea is to create a future in which the opposition exists but cannot come to power; in which institutions exist but are undermined; in which the law exists but serves power."

Meanwhile, the former mayor of Izmir, Tunç Soyer, spoke out through his lawyer. Addressing his supporters, he said: "Rest assured: I have a clear conscience and I walk with my head held high."

But the arrest of CHP politicians is not the only problem currently putting the party under pressure. The ongoing proceedings against the last party congress are also damaging the party's cohesion. In the trial, the current party leader, Özgür Özel, who belongs to the more progressive wing, is accused of having won the chairmanship election illegitimately. This would require former leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu to fill the position. Observers see this as a calculation by the government, which would bring Kılıçdaroğlu back into office, a non-threatening opposition politician. The trial was expected to begin last Monday, but was then postponed to September 8. Özel commented on this on the "X" platform, saying: "Today's hearing was not results-oriented, but rather a political operation aimed at debating our party, blocking our path to government, and breaking our fighting spirit."

On Wednesday, Özel also traveled to Izmir, where the CHP had organized a protest rally against the arrests. Özel initially denied rumors that he would withhold support from Soyer due to intra-party differences: "We sometimes have competition, sometimes there are discussions – but the bond of brotherhood is never damaged." Instead of such complex processes, he argued, the government should raise the minimum wage. The CHP party leader is earning increasing respect in this defensive battle, even in the left-wing camp outside his party. But whether he can hold his own party together and permanently fend off attacks on the opposition with purely symbolic protests is doubtful.