Economic fragility is a concern: A difficult year is expected in key sectors of Mexico.

MEXICO CITY (EFE)— Although Mexico managed to avoid a technical recession at the end of the first quarter of 2025, analysts from the Monex financial group warned Wednesday that the country is heading toward a sustained economic slowdown with “virtually zero growth” this year.

"Although, for the moment, (Mexico) avoided a technical recession (…) in the first quarter of this year, expectations are still not as positive for 2025. The market consensus is expecting GDP growth of only 0.1%, which would essentially imply a stagnation of the economy," explained Janeth Quiroz, director of Economic, Foreign Exchange and Stock Market Analysis at Monex.

At a press conference marking Monex's 40th anniversary, Janeth Quiroz noted that Mexican Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth could be minimal this year, with key sectors such as construction and services showing significant weakness, according to her forecasts.

This fragility, added José Roberto Solano Pérez, analysis manager for the group of financial specialists, is not equivalent to a traditional recession, but rather an environment where "companies face significant challenges in the face of practically zero growth."

"Some specialists are talking about a recession. We're shifting this view more toward an issue of economic fragility, both in the United States and Mexico, and this can obviously translate into very significant challenges for American companies," Solano Pérez added.

Impacts of the USMCA

Analysts, for their part, affirmed that the return of protectionist policies from the United States has changed the global economic landscape, amid a tariff war and the dispute over supply chains between major powers like the United States and China.

In this context, Janeth Quiroz emphasized that Mexico is positioned as a strategic player thanks to the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA), an agreement that grants zero tariffs on 49% of Mexican exports to the United States.

In this regard, the specialist noted that an early review of the USMCA would be positive, as it would mean "a light at the end of the tunnel" that would give markets certainty as they think about the medium and long term.

"The fact that the review and negotiations are being brought forward, and that we're already talking about terms that will lead to a medium-term agreement, or at least for the next few years, is positive," commented the director of Economic Analysis at Monex.

He also noted that this would mitigate a period of uncertainty that has been "very damaging," especially because it has "kept investment paralyzed, with many uncertainties for consumers."

The analyst concluded that the possibility of bringing forward the revision to the second half of 2025, as planned by Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, has even helped the exchange rate appreciate.

Stock market

The Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV) advanced 0.44% yesterday, escaping the losses recorded on Wall Street.

With this result, the stock index has risen for seven sessions in the last eight, reaching 58,568.01 points.

Experts attribute the rebound to local optimism in the face of the risk aversion that prevailed in the US markets.

Among the issuers with the best performance were Peñoles (+3.81%), Alpek (+3.09%), and Femsa (+2.69%). In total, 24 of the 36 companies in the index closed with gains. The Mexican peso fell 0.5% against the dollar, reaching 19.37 units per currency.