European ports under pressure: congestion and tariffs threaten supply chains

Global supply chains , vital to Europe 's trade flows and economic health, continue to show signs of significant stress. A recent report by maritime consultancy Drewry reveals worsening congestion at key northern European ports, including Bremerhaven (Germany), Antwerp (Belgium), and Hamburg (Germany), as well as Rotterdam (Netherlands) and Felixstowe (UK).

Between the end of March and mid-May 2025, waiting times for ships docked increased dramatically: by 77% in Bremerhaven, 37% in Antwerp, and 49% in Hamburg. The main causes identified were:

• Labor shortage in the logistics sector.
• Low water levels on the Rhine River, crucial for transporting goods by barge to and from the interior of the continent.
• A distortion in shipping demand caused by the United States' tariff policy toward China. President Trump's recent announcement to delay the imposition of 50% tariffs on the European Union until July to allow for negotiations has offered a temporary respite, but uncertainty persists.

This congestion has multiple negative effects:

• Lengthening of transit times for goods.
• Disruption of inventory planning for companies.
• Pressure on carriers to maintain higher stock levels, increasing costs.
• Increased freight rates, as announced by major shipping companies such as MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co. for routes from Asia starting in June.

Rolf Habben Jansen, CEO of Hapag-Lloyd AG, while optimistic about recent improvements, estimated that it would take "another six to eight weeks" to get the situation in European ports under control.

This complicated logistical landscape is part of a broader economic context of caution. The European Central Bank's (ECB) March 2025 projections already anticipated that heightened geopolitical and political uncertainty, particularly in the global trade arena, would weigh on eurozone economic growth, slowing the expected recovery.

The situation is forcing the European Union to redefine its role in the global economy. There is a movement toward "economic statecraft" with a more geopolitical focus, abandoning the traditional strict separation between commercial interests and foreign policy strategy. This shift responds to what has been called the "instrumentalization of interdependence," where economic relations are increasingly used as tools of political power. The EU seeks "open strategic autonomy" but faces the challenge of balancing support for key industries with maintaining fair competition within its single market.

"Additional political uncertainty will act as a drag on global activity by adding risks to spending decisions," Oxford Economics noted in a research note cited in relation to the US tariff threats against the EU.

As Europe pushes forward with ambitious transitions—a green transition through the European Green Deal and a digital transition through regulations on AI and cybersecurity—financing these transformations is becoming more challenging. Slowed economic growth, trade uncertainty, and fiscal pressures on member states are complicating the mobilization of the necessary capital.

Although there are initiatives to support businesses, such as the financing lines BBVA offers to entrepreneurs, startups, and SMEs in Europe to boost their growth, a much larger mobilization of public and private capital is required. Decisions on spending priorities, possible new forms of common European debt, tax reforms, and incentives for private investment will be crucial. The risk is that a lack of adequate financing will hinder progress in these transitions, which are vital to Europe's long-term competitiveness and sustainability.

The "new normal" appears to be one of constant disruption in supply chains and continued pressure on European competitiveness. Companies on the continent will need to develop greater resilience and diversification, while the EU may be forced to adopt more interventionist industrial policies, which in turn could generate internal tensions regarding the principles of the single market.

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