Financial group declares that Mexico faces zero growth in 2025

Analysts from the Monex financial group warned this Wednesday that The country is heading for a sustained economic slowdown with "virtually zero growth" this year .

"Although, for the moment, (Mexico) avoided a technical recession (…) in the first quarter of this year, expectations are still not as positive for 2025. The market consensus is expecting GDP growth of only 0.1%, which would basically imply a stagnation of the economy ," explained Janeth Quiróz Zamora, Director of Economic, Foreign Exchange and Stock Market Analysis at Monex.

At a press conference, Quiroz noted that Mexican Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth could be minimal this year, according to his forecasts.

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Monex's analysis manager, José Roberto Solano Pérez, added that this situation is not equivalent to a traditional recession, but rather an environment where "companies face significant challenges in the face of virtually zero growth."

"Some specialists are talking about a recession. We're shifting this view more toward an issue of economic fragility, both in the United States and Mexico, and this can obviously translate into very significant challenges for American companies," Solano added.

Analysts, for their part, stated that The return of protectionist policies from the United States has changed the global economic landscape , amid a tariff war and the dispute over supply chains between major powers such as the US and China.

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In this context, Quiroz emphasized that Mexico is positioned as a strategic player thanks to the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA) , an agreement that grants zero tariffs on 49% of Mexican exports to the United States.

In this regard, the specialist noted that an early review of the USMCA would be positive, as it would mean "a light at the end of the tunnel" that would give markets certainty as they think about the medium and long term.

"The fact that the review and negotiations are being brought forward, and that we're already talking about terms that will lead to a medium-term agreement, or at least for the next few years, is positive," commented the Monex director.

Quiroz noted that this would mitigate a period of uncertainty that has been "very damaging," especially because it has "kept investment paralyzed, with many uncertainties for consumers."

The analyst concluded that the possibility of bringing forward the revision to the second half of 2025, as planned by Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard, has even helped the exchange rate appreciate.

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