Record collection: low growth, the risk

In the midst of the Mexican economy's stagnation, a strikingly positive figure has emerged.

In the first quarter of 2025, the economy avoided a technical recession, but recorded a minimal growth rate of 0.2 percent.

And precisely during that same period, the SAT collected 2 trillion 17,536 million pesos in the first quarter of this year.

This amount is almost 10% (9.9%) higher than what was collected in the first four months of 2024 and represents a nominal increase of 247,953 million pesos.

From January to April, 1 trillion 171,684 million pesos were collected in income tax (ISR), representing 136,904 million more than in the first four months of 2024 and a real increase of 9.1 percent.

Regarding revenue from value-added tax (VAT), these totaled 537.251 billion pesos, 82.762 billion pesos more than the same period last year and a real growth of 13.9 percent.

Collection of the special tax on production and services (IEPS) reached 217.479 billion pesos, 9.4 billion more than the same period in 2024.

Discounting the likely positive effects of calendar dates on tax collection, what is evident is the greater audit efficiency of the SAT, headed by Antonio Martínez Dagnino.

It must be said that tax collection has been strengthened in the last decade.

The digitalization of payment processes has helped. By the third quarter of 2024, 1.71 times more taxpayers had registered than in 2020.

And between 2018 and 2024, tax collection efficiency increased by 241.3 percent.

On the other hand, the tax miscellanies approved in previous years have strengthened tax collection through control, clarity and simplification mechanisms.

Nevertheless, the increase in tax collection is notable, especially considering that the economy is experiencing an undeniable slowdown and eventual recession.

Economic growth is essential for recording higher or lower contribution amounts.

Regarding economic growth, in retrospect, it is worth remembering that Claudia Sheinbaum's administration inherited from her predecessor an economy with the lowest level of six-year economic growth, with an annual rate of less than 1%.

And looking ahead, the outlook is anything but encouraging.

Contrary to the official projection that estimates a growth rate in the range of 1.5 to 2.3%, most non-governmental and private analysts have revised their GDP growth forecasts downward.

Banxico cut its projection to 0.6% last February from 1.2% in November.

Last March, Banamex adjusted its forecast to 0% from a previous estimate of 0.2%. In general, most forecasts anticipate a zero or very low growth rate.

The question, therefore, is whether the extraordinary revenue seen today can be sustained.

Since income tax and VAT are the main sources of revenue, their performance will have to be assessed based on a lower growth rate.

Among the main factors clouding the outlook are trade uncertainty stemming from the US tariffs; the Mexican government's efforts to reduce the fiscal deficit from nearly 6% to 4.9%; and weak domestic demand, both in private consumption and private investment, which are expected to experience significant declines starting in the second quarter of 2024. Revenue growth depends on achieving economic growth targets.

If these measures are not met, revenues will be lower and could lead to fiscal imbalances, which would imply further cuts or more debt.

Hopefully, the economy will grow at the pace predicted by Finance Secretary Edgar Amador and the revenue goals will be met. Just in time.