So, does Trump's new trade war begin on August 1st?

On April 2, Donald Trump imposed a base tariff of 10% on all imports entering the US, plus surcharges ranging from 10% to 104% on 57 countries with which his country maintains a trade deficit. Days later, on April 9, he announced a 90-day truce so that the affected countries could negotiate agreements and avoid or reduce the tariffs.

That truce was set to expire tomorrow, but last weekend, Treasury Secretary Bessent and Commerce Secretary Lutnick clarified that the key date is August 1, when official letters will begin to be sent with new tariffs: 10% for "friendly partners" and up to 70% for others.

The reason for the postponement may have a legal basis: a federal appeals court could overturn the tariffs on July 31, after a trade court declared them illegal in May.

The new delay could also be due to Trump's lack of success as promised. In April, he promised to sign 90 agreements in 90 days; his team later lowered the expectation to between 50 and 70, and he himself told Time magazine that he had already secured "200 agreements." But he only achieved three: with the United Kingdom, Vietnam, and a temporary one with China. Other countries have only announced their intention to negotiate, without clear deadlines or terms.

To further complicate matters, Trump warned yesterday that any country aligned with the "anti-American policies of the BRICS" will face an additional 10 percent tariff. The group is made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Indonesia. Although Mexico is not a member, Foreign Secretary Juan Ramón de la Fuente recently attended its summit meeting in Brazil, a situation that could be misinterpreted in Washington.

Also yesterday, Trump sent letters to the leaders of 17 countries reminding them of the need to reach an agreement by August 1st to avoid the imposition of these tariffs. He will impose a 25% tariff on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan, a 30% tariff on South Africa, and a 40% tariff on Laos and Myanmar. He warned all of them that if they raise their tariffs on US products, the increase will be directly added to the percentage already announced. He also announced a 25% tariff on the European Union.

According to the IMF and the World Bank, these measures could lead to a drop of up to 1% in US GDP in 2025-2026, while inflation could increase by one to two percentage points. Globally, a trade slowdown of between 1% and 2% is expected, particularly affecting developing countries that depend on the US market.

Mexico avoided reciprocal tariffs thanks to the USMCA , but it's not exempt: it pays a base 10% tariff, an additional 25% for rules of origin, another 25% for fentanyl, 25% for steel and aluminum, and could now add another 1% if Trump deems it aligned with BRICS. But the effects of the tariffs are already visible: between January and May, auto exports to the US fell 6.3 percent.

So far, President Claudia Sheinbaum has kept a cool head in the face of Trump's attacks, but many are already wondering how long she will maintain this adult demeanor in the face of an unpredictable individual who clearly seeks to harm Mexico.

Facebook: Eduardo J Ruiz-Healy